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President Donald Trump has strong Republican backing for his war with Iran. It might fade with time.
Congressional Republicans clearly have no desire for a drawn-out conflict in Iran, even as they assert that Trump can avoid his predecessors’ entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those wars cost thousands of American lives, drained political support from multiple presidents, and demonstrated the perils of nation-building.
To avoid a similar outcome, the administration already has a congressional clock to keep in mind. Under current law, Trump has 60 days before Congress would have to authorize the war with Iran, with an additional 30-day withdrawal period under the War Powers Act.
“As supporters of what the president’s doing, in 60 to 90 days, we start losing our high ground legally,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., told Semafor. He praised the Trump administration’s handling of the war and compliance with Congress so far but warned that “I don’t know any scenario where a war gets better with the public … war fatigue is real, and it happens quickly.”
Trump’s advisers are likely to clear their first hurdle Wednesday, when the Senate votes on his war powers, but their Hill briefings this week will determine the number of GOP defections. And their bigger challenge is to shape the initially rocky public perception of an open-ended war Trump chose — one that his opponents are already likening to George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
“We’re not the Bushes,” one White House official told Semafor. As to the 60-day congressional timeline, the official said: “I wouldn’t want to hamstring us by saying anything beyond what we’ve already said: Four to five weeks is when we hope this will conclude … everyone’s optimistic about that.”
Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., sided with the Trump administration on previous war powers votes this Congress but said the Iran conflict “seems different … more serious, more lengthy.” He’s currently undecided.
“There is a high, significant potential outcome for good, but it’s a high-risk effort,” Moran added. “I don’t think there’s anybody who could say it’s going to be over by a certain date.”
Vice President JD Vance, who endorsed Trump for 2024 with the argument that he’s “started no wars,” has lately echoed the commander-in-chief’s assessment that the US has “the capability to go far longer than” four or five weeks. Administration officials also insist that Trump will not bring the US into an extended conflict. Past presidents have also sought to skirt the War Powers Act.
The administration is preparing options for a new Iranian government if it integrates into the Middle East and drops its nuclear weapon program, according to one senior Trump administration official — a sign of a potential quick end to the war.
“We are working on what a sanctions relief package could be in the future, if there is a framework that’s agreed to with a new government,” the official said.
Vance — historically a staunch anti-interventionalist — argues that this war differs from past lengthy global conflicts because Trump “has clearly defined what he wants to accomplish.”
But there’s quiet acknowledgement that no one truly knows how long operations against Iran will last, or what the end result will be.
“We don’t” know that this won’t be another Afghanistan, one person close to the White House argued, before adding: “I don’t see how you can put a timeline on it.”
Know More
Congress authorized the Iraq and Afghanistan wars more than 20 years ago. Trump campaigned as a break from his party’s stewardship of those wars, credibility that’s now on the line with how he handles Iran.
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he’s inclined for now to oppose Kaine’s effort to restrain Trump’s war powers, calling it a “political messaging exercise.” But he also said the war effort may hit the 60-day mark and require a congressional vote to authorize it.
HIs opposition to the current war powers vote “doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be talking about legitimizing the effort, and you do that through a” legislative authorization, Tillis told Semafor. “If we’re having a discussion three weeks from now, and we’re at the same or similar level of hostility, I think it’s going to be a real problem.”
Most other Republicans are trying to focus on Trump’s prediction that the war would last roughly a month. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said “I don’t think the American public’s in for a long duration.
“We’ve now lost six members of the military. Loss of life is hard for us to take after the prolonged Afghanistan and Iraq situation,” Capito added. “We can’t allow ourselves to lose. And so that begs the question, how long does it take to win? And I think that’s a question that we’re all asking.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he “would certainly hope” that 60-90 days would be sufficient for the operations that Trump has laid out.
second White House official pointed to Trump’s various objectives related to Iran’s missiles and Navy and vowed that “operations will continue until” the goals are met.
Room for Disagreement
Republicans who arrived in Congress alongside Trump’s win in 2024 tend to hug him more closely as a group, and that’s not changing when it comes to the timetable.
“What I campaigned on, what the president campaigned on … is no endless wars,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. “This is not gonna be an endless war. Far from it.”
Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., told Semafor that he disagrees with the idea that “this is somehow starting a new front” in Iran, adding: “We’re just tired of fighting on the margins against the proxies.”
Burgess and Shelby’s View
The biggest risk to Trump’s internal support in the GOP for his war with Iran is a lengthy entanglement that voters sour on. A quick victorious campaign with no boots on the ground would go a long way to preserving Trump’s standing within his party, for this and likely future foreign policy forays.
But a quagmire or high casualties would sap his political strength, particularly with the midterms around the corner. And given that early public polling shows majorities disapprove of Trump’s action, it may only be a matter of time before endangered Republicans in both chambers of Congress start to do the same.
Notable
- The rationale for the war keeps changing, the Washington Post reports.
Eleanor Mueller and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.