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North American trade agreement faces further uncertainty

Feb 27, 2026, 7:01am EST
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Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump
Canada’s prime minister, Mexico’s president, and the US president. Mandel Ngan/File Photo/Reuters

The trilateral trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the US could require annual reviews if Washington refuses to sign an extension, risking huge trade upheaval, Ottawa warned.

USMCA’s signatories must reconfirm the deal every six years, or it reverts to yearly checks. The first renewal falls in July, and Canada’s Minister for US Trade Dominic LeBlanc warned that the US may block it.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the accord, agreed during his first term; Canada and Mexico both rely on the US for the vast majority of exports, and are seeking trade ties elsewhere. The uncertainty over whether the agreement will continue could be a deliberate strategy on Washington’s part, LeBlanc said.

A chart showing the share of Canada and Mexico’s trade with the US.
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