The Trump administration’s pattern of pressuring Europe over strategically located territories — like Greenland and Diego Garcia — has some analysts wondering whether New Caledonia could be next.
The French-controlled Pacific archipelago sits atop an estimated 25% of the world’s known reserves of nickel, a resource critical to EV batteries and defense applications, as Chinese firms buy up stakes in key minerals.
American and Australian strategic planners have flagged the Pacific mineral supply as a potential chokepoint in any future conflict scenario.
“It’s a place where China is deeply interested,” Erik Bethel, the US representative to the World Bank during Trump’s first term and currently a partner at Mare Liberum, told Semafor of New Caledonia.
But Trump’s focus hasn’t turned there yet. A White House official told Semafor that they “are not aware of any conversations regarding New Caledonia,” adding that Trump has already addressed nickel supply chain issues via his trade pact with Indonesia.