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Ukraine may be losing the ruined frontline town of Avdiivka
Insights from the Financial Times, The Kyiv Independent, and DeepState
The News
Russia may be on the brink of capturing the ruined frontline town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine after its soldiers breached a key supply line, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat, Ukrainian military officials said on Thursday.
Amid heavy fighting, Ukraine has doubled down on protecting the city, deploying an elite brigade, more equipment and establishing a backup supply route in an attempt to hold the town, where officials described the situation as “precarious and unstable.”
Military analysts say Russia looks increasingly likely to capture Avdiivka in what would be Moscow’s most significant victory in the war since claiming Bakhmut last May.
More than 5,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured around Avdiivka in the past two weeks as Russia has ramped up its attacks on the town, which have been ongoing since October, according to Ukraine’s military.
The town, which is less than 10 miles from the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk has been a key outpost for Ukraine’s efforts to hit Russian supply lines, the Financial Times reported.
SIGNALS
Fight for Avdiivka has become increasingly costly for Ukraine
The fight for Avdiivka evokes last year’s battle for Bakhmut, where many analysts believe Ukrainian troops were ordered to stay long after their positions became untenable and they started to suffer significant losses. “It is worth making decisions that will first of all save the most valuable thing — the lives of soldiers, and not turn Avdiivka into another ‘fortress’ with songs and poems,” the prominent Ukrainian open source organization DeepState wrote on Telegram, referencing “fortress Bakhmut,” as the city came to be known in Ukraine last year. Entering and exiting the city has become “a lottery” for Ukrainian troops, the group added. “The trajectory of the battle suggests an inevitable withdrawal,” the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight said. Ukrainian officials maintained that their troops can still retain the town. “Our defenders firmly hold the defense, inflicting comprehensive fire damage on the enemy. The enemy suffers significant losses and introduces new reserves,” an armed forces spokesperson told Politico.
New military chief nicknamed ‘the Butcher’ stokes fears of unsustainable fight
The concern that Ukraine is sending troops into an unsustainable battle has been compounded by the appointment of General Oleksandr Syrskyi to the role of commander-in-chief. Syrskyi led the costly defense of Bakhmut, and his reputation for being willing to accept heavy Ukrainian losses has earned him the nickname of “the Butcher” among some Ukrainian troops, despite his regular visits to the front in an effort to boost morale. Even so, some members of Ukraine’s military believe he is “the most experienced general Ukraine has,” The Economist’s Oliver Carroll wrote on X. But Syrskyi has yet to win over the general population as his predecessor, the hugely popular Valerii Zaluzhnyi did, a Ukrainian poll conducted earlier in February found. While 94% of respondents said they trusted Syrskyi’s predecessor, only 40% felt the same about Syrskyi, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology’s survey.
