Alexis’s view
The push to mine Africa’s natural resources for the minerals that will drive the next industrial revolution is often described as a “race.” This suggests there will be winners and losers — framing that at times feels overly reductive. But this year’s Mining Indaba embodied that very idea, with all the drama that comes with it.
Much of the talk was about Washington’s largest-ever official delegation at the event. Their notable presence in Cape Town, days after the White House hosted representatives of 54 governments to push its plan for a critical minerals trade zone, made clear the Trump administration’s determination to counter Chinese dominance of the global minerals supply chain. The US pursuit of bilateral deals was sobering for those falling behind: European delegates privately told me it highlighted the EU’s lack of progress in securing resources for the energy transition and AI technology.
The most public sign of tension was the South African mining minister’s criticism of DR Congo for signing its recent minerals deal with Washington. Pretoria’s frustration is understandable: It wasn’t invited to the critical minerals trade zone talks and seems likely to be shut out of the arrangement, despite being Africa’s most industrialized economy and rich in minerals.
Beyond the issue of who is vying for mineral access, the question of how to gain an advantage had a popular answer — artificial intelligence, as I report below. Ultimately, the danger for African nations is that they could easily lose out without cooperation on local processing and refining, as South Africa’s mining minister argued. He warned that they could find themselves in a very different contest — a “race to the bottom.”
Notable
- While the Trump administration appears to have momentarily suspended its Afrophobia, the China Global South Project argued, it is reportedly seeking out agreements that maximize access to minerals, while limiting US companies’ actual presence on the continent.