Fewer geopolitical experts see climate change as an urgent global security threat, but many still expect to see conflict over water access in the near term.
In an Atlantic Council survey of nearly 450 experts, shared first with Semafor, 80% expect the world to become hotter over the next decade, and fewer than half think global greenhouse gas emissions have peaked. But whereas, two years ago, half of this group of experts expected climate change to be the chief driver of global political cooperation, now less than 20% share that view, and only 17% see climate change as the top threat to global prosperity. Yet 64% think a war over access to fresh water is likely before 2036.
Meanwhile, in part due to the global shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources, a majority of experts said they expect China to be the world’s dominant economic power in the coming decade.
