what’s at stake
Russia’s war in Ukraine served as a wake-up call for Europe’s flagging defense industry. European capitals are now investing heavily in weapons production with an eye toward becoming less dependent on Washington.
It’s part of a broader pivot toward what Europe refers to as “strategic autonomy,” or the continent’s ability to eliminate its military and economic dependence on other countries like the US.
And experts increasingly see Europe achieving its goals in the coming years, as President Donald Trump fuels doubts within the NATO alliance about America’s reliability. In fact, a recent survey of geopolitics experts conducted by the Atlantic Council found that 57% believe that Europe will have achieved “strategic autonomy” by taking greater responsibility for its security by 2036.
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who’s making the case
Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, argued during a recent event that Europe will always be somewhat reliant on the US:
“I think it depends on what ‘strategic autonomy’ means. And so if it means a more capable Europe within a US-led NATO, I think I agree with this. If it means a Europe that’s autonomous and independent from the United States, I am much more skeptical and reminded of Henry Kissinger’s famous quote, when you want to call Europe, who do you call? Because it’s not one coherent political entity. The Spanish and the Lithuanians see the challenges facing the continent and how to deal with them very differently.
“And so, historically, it has required US leadership to bring together these different countries in a common direction. And I think that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The United States is a major force pushing the Europeans to spend more on defense and, again, as Secretary [Mark] Rutte said, there’s no way European countries would have agreed to the 5% defense spending target if it hadn’t been for President Trump. So, I guess I see a more capable Europe but with the United States still playing a leadership role.”
Niklas Helwig, a leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, argued that Europe has no alternative but to become strategically autonomous when it comes to security:
“The question is no longer whether Europe will pursue strategic autonomy, but whether it has any alternative. The fallout surrounding Donald Trump’s bid for Greenland has shown that Europeans can no longer fully rely on the US to provide for their security. Future US administrations may have little incentive to fundamentally reverse that trajectory. At the same time, the risk of Russian escalation against NATO territory requires credible European deterrence.
“The good news is that the crisis Europe is facing has accelerated adjustment. European defense spending has risen sharply since 2022. Even though much remains to be improved, defense planning and procurement are increasingly managed jointly, with a stronger role for the EU in defense-industrial matters.
“Ultimately, strategic autonomy is about safeguarding Europe’s political and economic model. The capacity to defend democracy, the rule of law, and regulatory sovereignty requires material independence. Given the global decline of democratic norms, achieving significantly greater strategic autonomy within the next decade is not only possible — it is necessary for Europe’s political identity.”
Notable
- Munich Security Conference officials warned earlier this week that the globe has entered a period of “wrecking ball politics,” The New York Times reported.
- European capitals believe that becoming technologically independent from the US is unrealistic, Politico reported.