Oil prices dipped on Tuesday on signs that talks between the US and Iran are alleviating the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the US continues to ramp up pressure on Russia’s oil exports.
On Monday, US forces intercepted another tanker allegedly part of Russia’s sanctions-dodging “shadow fleet,” days after US President Donald Trump said that India had agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a trade deal. That commitment wasn’t reflected in the deal itself, however, and hasn’t been confirmed by Delhi. “A full halt of Russian oil imports remains unlikely given India’s desire to preserve strategic autonomy,” Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti wrote in a note.
Still, Indian imports are declining gradually, which means that “Russia is at risk of losing a key seaborne outlet and being pushed into deeper China dependence, with weaker realized pricing as discounts widen to keep barrels moving.” Moscow’s oil and gas revenue in January was down to about one-third of its level this time last year.
