The News
Progressive senators are wading into Democratic primaries across the country, at times breaking from their leaders to back more left-leaning or insurgent candidates — with the notable exception of Texas.
That’s starting to change.
The March 3 primary in a red state where Democrats haven’t claimed a Senate seat in 38 years has become an urgent priority, even though many in the party feel too burned by past Texas near-misses to get involved.
As state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett square off, some Democrats worry that nominating Crockett could squander the advantage they’d get if Republicans tap Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over the more battle-tested incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Talarico even leads Paxton in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to some polls. That’s enough for Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., who told Semafor he’s endorsing Talarico.
“I’ve given him money. I’ve been really impressed with his communication. I think he’s doing a really remarkable job,” Heinrich said. “He’s running a really smart campaign, and he’s doing a great job talking to people about the things that they care about in a way that is very accessible.”
Heinrich is one of several progressive Democrats who’ve already diverged from their leaders’ pick in other contested primaries that will determine the party’s shot at a Senate majority in November, including Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota. But so far, he’s the only member of that group to pick a side in Texas — even though one Democratic senator said there’s a clear Talarico preference in the caucus.
“He’s the viable one,” this senator told Semafor. “There are a lot of us who are rooting for him.”
Endorsing Talarico over Crockett isn’t a simple choice; across the Capitol, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC has backed Crockett as she trumpets a University of Houston poll showing her with an 8-point primary lead. Her campaign did not respond to a request for comment but said this week she’s “in the best position to reassemble a winning Democratic coalition.”
Still, Heinrich said he hopes other Senate Democrats follow his lead. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he “might” weigh in on the Texas primary, though he praised both candidates as “compelling” and acknowledged “they both probably have different lanes to a general-election victory.”
“I don’t have anything for you,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who is backing Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota over the leadership-backed Rep. Angie Craig. Warren said the Texas Senate race is broadly winnable because Republicans “don’t seem to have any popular candidates.”
Know More
The Talarico-Crockett primary got an unwelcome jolt last week from allegations that Talarico called 2024 Texas Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred a “mediocre Black man.” While Talarico clarified that he specifically criticized Allred’s campaigning as “mediocre,” Allred subsequently endorsed Crockett, who is known nationally as an antagonist of President Doanld Trump.
It was a dust-up Democrats didn’t need as they try to exploit GOP fissures in the Texas primary. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said that the “circular firing squad aspect of this is not helpful, so I hope that they will all stick to the issues.
“We’re watching it closely,” added Van Hollen, who has met with Talarico. “I think Texas is winnable.”
Polling is relatively hard to come by in the primary, and both candidates have led in recent surveys. That suggests a tight margin which outside Democrats could help influence, particularly those with national profiles.
“We got two incredible people running in that primary,” said Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga. “We would be in good shape with either of them. And I think we’re well positioned for a Texas upset.”
While he’s not among the Democratic senators who have made high-profile primary endorsements, Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., praised Talarico as compelling and the general election polling as “encouraging.” He then said he still hasn’t decided to weigh in: “I really need to make up my mind, don’t I?”
The View From Republicans
The GOP has its own problems. Party leaders are still praying Trump backs Cornyn to put him over the top in the primary and make the general election less competitive. Turning Point Action, a Trump-aligned group started by the late Charlie Kirk, endorsed Paxton this week.
“I’ve been supporting Sen. Cornyn. I’ll leave it up to the president; he’s been asked. A lot of input,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. “It would make a big difference.”
Regardless of who wins their Texas Senate primary, Republicans would be happier running against Crockett in November.
Room for Disagreement
One reason Democrats aren’t fully focused on Texas is because of the state’s last three Senate races.
All of them featured what Democrats considered solid candidates. But Allred, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and MJ Hegar all fell short, even as their party broke through in longtime red states like Arizona and Georgia.
“Part of the reason we’re not super-engaged is feeling snakebit about Texas overall. It’s a quarter-billion dollars,” said the Democratic senator.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is neutral in the primary.
Burgess’s view
Democrats are sensing an opportunity in Texas, but they may be in danger of sitting on it, and some may be kicking themselves later this year if they sit on their hands.
Cornyn and Paxton are expected to head to a May runoff, but Crockett and Talarico are the only major candidates in the Democratic primary, making March 3 the likely make-or-break point. Settling their primary first will give Democrats time to shape the race amid some suspense about who they will be facing.
Meanwhile, I haven’t talked to a Republican yet who thinks Crockett can win the state, and plenty who think Talarico can prevail.
Notable
- Talarico has big money advantages against Crockett’s unconventional campaign, NOTUS reports.