Republicans fear a Texas Senate problem — and hope Trump agrees

Republican senators are making clear to President Donald Trump that a mishandled primary in Texas would put their majority at risk.

It’s not clear that he sees the same peril they do.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Semafor that he’s impressed upon Trump “many times” the broader consequences for the party if its Texas Senate nominee is anyone other than incumbent John Cornyn. Leaders in both parties view Cornyn, running for his fifth term, as a stronger general-election candidate than his two primary rivals.

But Cornyn is in danger of losing the GOP nomination to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who’s challenging him from the right. Republicans expect them to advance to a May 26 runoff after the first round on March 3.

Republicans believe a Paxton win would be a potential disaster, but even a runoff will be a huge drain on GOP resources; that runoff is more likely given the late candidacy of Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, who drains votes from both Cornyn and Paxton. Trump could alter the course of the primary if he endorsed and has said he’s giving it a “very serious look.”

A White House official had no updates on Trump’s view of the primary but underscored that the president will work with Thune to hold the seat and protect the Senate majority. A Cornyn loss to Paxton could give a significant opening to Democratic candidate James Talarico, if he survives his primary — affecting national spending and strategic decisions.

“It’s a business argument,” Thune told Semafor. “You know, if we’re spending $100 or $200 million in Texas in the general election, that’s $100 to $200 million we can’t be spending in other places in races we have a chance to win.”

Thune also acknowledged that a Cornyn loss puts the GOP’s majority in greater danger, adding that “that’s why it would be enormously helpful” for Trump to endorse Cornyn. “Obviously, I’ve made that case to the president, but ultimately, the decision is up to him.”

Cornyn told Semafor this week that he still wants Trump’s support and that he’s made his case for himself as the strongest general election candidate, “but we’re not waiting around.

“He’s got some outstanding professionals advising him … and I think they’ve explained that to him,” Cornyn said. “Having a good candidate and running a good campaign means a whole lot. It’s not just money.”

Cornyn signaled on Tuesday that he would contact Trump again this week. Asked for an update on Wednesday, he replied: “I’m adopting a new policy: I’m not talking about my conversations with the president.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is circulating internal polling showing Cornyn ahead of both Talarico, a Texas state lawmaker, and his Democratic primary rival Rep. Jasmine Crockett. That polling shows Paxton losing to Talarico and only narrowly edging Crockett.

“The battleground to protect President Trump’s Senate majority should not be fought in a red state like Texas, and John Cornyn is the Republican nominee who ensures it won’t be,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the NRSC.

This past weekend’s resounding special-election defeat of a Trump-backed Texas state Senate candidate in a red district was an eye-opener for Republicans. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., the No. 4 GOP leader, said it demonstrated Democrats are “really motivated” this year.

That’s not the only reason Texas matters to Trump’s party. He and the NRSC have squashed contested primary challenges almost everywhere else on the map except for Georgia. Complications in Texas could make it harder for Republicans to capitalize on painful Democratic primaries in Michigan, Minnesota, and Maine, as well as the Talarico-Crockett race.

And a strong Senate candidate would lift Republicans down-ballot, too.