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Chuck Schumer’s advice for Democrats staring at a long two or more years out of power: Just wait.
“Trump will screw up,” he told Semafor in an interview.
The Senate minority leader and his 47-member caucus finally got their first major Trump administration stumble, after last week’s rescinding of a budget memo that froze huge swaths of government spending. That unexpected pullback inspired Schumer to call an audible, turning his strategy of coordinated hits on President Donald Trump’s blanket pardons of Jan. 6 defendants into a focused condemnation of Trump’s budgetary moves.
He called Trump’s move “the best thing that’s happened” to Democrats this year, predicting it would be the first episode of many. On Sunday morning, he quickly called a press conference in New York and lit into Trump’s new tariffs on US allies.
“I didn’t know he’d screw up so soon,” Schumer said in the interview. “There’s a long way to go. This is going to be a pattern.”
Schumer’s characteristic optimism aside, his predicament appears dire. He’s deeper in the minority than his House counterparts and faces a more difficult path back to the majority in 2026. The New Yorker has some sway, thanks in part to the legislative filibuster — but his effectiveness at countering Trump over the next four years will depend on picking his spots to push back from among the president’s flurry of disruptive actions.
He said he’s learned some lessons over the past eight years about how to judiciously resist.
“We’re not going to fall for the Bannon ‘flood the zone,’” he said, referring to Trump ally Steve Bannon’s call for the president to blitz Democrats with orders and executive-branch maneuvers.
That’s meant letting some of Trump’s nominees through easily — even amid the furor over the pardons and budget freeze. He instructed his members to focus on Tulsi Gabbard’s bid to become national intelligence director, Robert F. Kennedy’s to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, Kash Patel’s to become FBI director and Pete Hegseth’s ultimately successful nomination to lead the Pentagon.
Some Senate Democrats still protested Trump’s spending freeze memo by opposing a relatively uncontroversial nominee; 22 of them flipped to no votes on Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy after every senator declined to filibuster him. Schumer was not one of those 22.
As minor as it may seem, that split has meaning for Schumer’s leadership, given the importance of unity on his side of the aisle. While that’s undoubtedly easier in the minority, Schumer will have to lean on his experience dealing with defectors — think former Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
He has a new Democratic contrarian in John Fetterman. The Pennsylvanian was the only Democrat who voted to advance a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court, after attending a signing ceremony with Trump and belatedly endorsing a resolution condemning the Jan. 6 pardons with minimal fanfare.
But despite Fetterman’s visit with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, he voted against Hegseth, and Democrats hope he’ll oppose the other Trump nominees Schumer has singled out. Fetterman is also one of a handful of well-known Democrats in Schumer’s ranks with a singular ability to command the media.
Schumer has a big megaphone, of course, but he said he respects the way Fetterman wields his own.
“He’s a very decent guy. He marches to his own drum,” Schumer said. “He’s a good influence on our caucus, because you need some independent voices.”
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Now a greybeard among Hill leaders, with more experience leading his caucus than all three of his congressional counterparts combined, Schumer brings an old-school flair to the job — he still uses that flip phone you’ve heard so much about. You’ll hear a lot online about how Democrats need new leadership, but Schumer doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere.
He still enjoys broad popularity in his caucus, performing the type of retail politics inside the Capitol with his members that are more common on the campaign trail. Eight years into the job as Democratic leader, he says he’ll stay on “as long as I’m good at it.”
He chaired the party’s Senate campaign arm after George W. Bush’s comfortable 2004 re-election, when Republicans expanded their congressional majorities. Then he became Democratic leader right after Republicans’ shocking Trump-powered win in 2016.
On both occasions, Democrats took back the House two years afterward. Schumer has learned from those moments: He knows how cyclical modern politics is and when to turn on the gas.
The biggest question for Democrats may be whether they can realistically dream of a midterm like 2006, when Schumer helped engineer a Senate takeover. In 2018, by contrast, a brutal map ended up costing Democrats seats.
Schumer is predicting that 2026 will be a lot more like 2006: “We’re going to do a lot better in the Senate than people think,” he said. “And I think a lot about it.”
Still, Schumer doesn’t want to get into the specifics of upcoming Senate races, because the party’s chances hinge on Democrats’ performance over the next two years. He’s already recalibrating the party’s immigration platform, which suffered under former President Joe Biden and helped Republicans last year.
But in a return to form, Schumer is preparing to aim much of the party’s messaging at the Republicans’ upcoming tax cut plans, figuring he can drive down the GOP’s popularity by highlighting its interest in breaks for the wealthy and big corporations.
“It’s going to flop for them politically,” Schumer said of Republicans’ tax agenda.
At the same time, Schumer’s bipartisan impulse is still intact. He had kind words for new Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., calling him an “honorable guy.” He said his door is open for a meeting with Trump ahead of deadlines to fund the government and lift the debt ceiling.
“He has said to me, ‘we’re going to sit down and talk,’ but he hasn’t called yet,” Schumer said.
The View From Steve Bannon
Bannon responded to Schumer’s comments with a notable turn: urging the Democratic leader to counter Trump’s nominees on the substance, saying that “the nation saw zero intellectual pushback — but plenty of personal vitriol” in the confirmation hearings.
“If Schumer is so interested in focus his team could start with a more robust response to the major economic, national security/intelligence and health care big ideas put forward,” he said.
Burgess’s view
Schumer’s bet that Trump will create opportunities for Democrats isn’t a bad one. After all, former President Joe Biden’s four years in office certainly did the same for Republicans.
The question is whether Democrats can continue to selectively push back against Trump at big moments. Schumer himself has been known to flood the zone, so he’ll have to be deliberate in how he wields his ample power as Democrats’ Senate leader.
David Weigel contributed reporting.