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China risks two-track economy as growth booms and real estate slumps

Jan 19, 2026, 6:42am EST
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A view shows cranes in front of the skyline of the Central Business District (CBD) in Beijing.
Thomas Peter/Reuters

China’s economy grew 5% last year, meeting Beijing’s target but highlighting a widening gap in the country’s two-track economy.

While China’s export industries weathered US tariffs — Beijing’s trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion in 2025anemic domestic consumption and a faltering real estate sector weighed on growth.

The world’s second-biggest economy faces plenty of other challenges, too, including the threat of persistent deflation, elevated youth unemployment, and a huge and opaque pile of local-government debt.

The mixed figures “may be simultaneously too good and too bad to be true,” The Economist reported: Falling prices mean China’s nominal growth was lower than the reported figures, while “awful” investment numbers may have been skewed by past “statistical shenanigans.”

A chart showing China’s GDP growth.
AD