Net Zero

1. Glacial talks on plastic
2. Coal’s downward slide
3. A coming EV price war
4. Improving fuel efficiency
5. Paid climate leave

The case against an oil giant sponsoring world soccer’s governing body.

Thanksgiving and the pseudo-holiday Black Friday are as good a time as any to reflect on the role overconsumption and waste play in the climate crisis.

We don’t typically focus on personal carbon footprints in this newsletter, which tend to be a distraction from bigger systemic problems that matter more. But the month between now and the New Year presents a lot of opportunities for holiday shoppers and home chefs to make more sustainable choices and think more broadly about individual responsibility, especially at a time when the US government is about to take a big step back from its role in regulating emissions.

The stats from this weekend’s holidays are sobering: About 316 million pounds of food will be wasted on Thanksgiving day in the US, with a carbon footprint equal to driving 200,000 cars for a year. In Europe, researchers estimate that Black Friday online shopping leads to a 94% spike in shipping-related emissions compared to an average week, in part because an above-average share of purchases on these consumer “holidays” are returned. What I take away from those numbers is that the best way to help is to just buy less stuff.

It will always be hard to pin down the quantifiable carbon impact of one avoided purchase of a turkey or TV. A more useful way to think of the problem is in reverse: The average person in the US is responsible for about 14 tons of CO2 per year, among the highest rates in the world. China, which Western politicians love to accuse of killing the climate, emits about half that rate. India is closer to 2 tons. Samoa, whose climate envoy led a walkout during COP29 to protest the paltry financial support his country has received, is close to 1 ton. If you’re a person in the US, there are some elements of this sum that are hard for an individual to change. You can’t snap your fingers and close a coal plant. Not everyone can afford an EV. But buying less is an option available to everyone, and sends a signal to the market that’s at least as impactful as the one sent by buying “greener” stuff. It’s the cheapest and easiest way to cut back on those 14 tons.

Nobody needs to (or should) live like a cave-dwelling monk to fight climate change. But we’re entering a time of year in Western culture that proactively celebrates overconsumption. I think it’s possible — and necessary — to maintain the spirit of festivity with fewer garbage bags and return labels.

Global plastics talks at an impasse

International talks aimed at curbing plastics pollution appeared to be at an impasse, with the chair of the negotiations issuing new proposals on Friday aimed at reigniting discussions. The week-long talks have “moved at glacial pace,” Reuters reported, and the new proposal features details on funding mechanisms to help developing countries and measures to reduce the use of certain plastics. The talks have deadlocked, however, over opposition to any mandatory caps from oil-producing countries whose fossil fuel are used to make plastic products.

Time is fast running out: The talks are set to conclude on Sunday. And much as it did at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, the plastics negotiations in Seoul are clouded by the looming return of US President-elect Donald Trump. “Everyone now knows that the US will not join this agreement anytime soon,” a European negotiator told the Financial Times.

Coal’s downward slide

The global coal market will likely begin “a gradual downward path” thanks to falling global import demand and ongoing decarbonization efforts, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note. China in particular will see coal consumption rise overall, but imports will likely fall over time because of high stockpiles. Still, a phaseout of coal may proceed at a slower pace than expected, they warned, because of natural gas prices buffeted by slow expansion of liquefied natural gas exports. And while much of the world is fast cutting its coal consumption, South and Southeast Asia purchases will offset “much of the demand lost in developed economies.” Another issue: China’s western region of Xinjiang is emerging as a new source of low-cost coal, with output surging 22% this year alone, Bloomberg reported.

The coming EV price war

China’s EV market, the world’s biggest, will likely see a renewed price war next year, a leaked document indicated. The automotive behemoth BYD asked a supplier to cut its prices by 10% in 2025, with a senior executive forecasting a “decisive battle,” a memo circulated on the internet in China showed. Years of slashing prices have accelerated the adoption of EVs and hybrids in China, but also narrowed carmakers’ margins, driving a broader industry consolidation. The impact of China’s rapid EV growth has been deep and global: One brokerage projects gasoline consumption falling in the country by up to 5% annually for the next several years, while historically dominant carmakers in Japan and Europe are fast losing market share.

Improving fuel efficiency

New-model cars in the US are more fuel-efficient and less-polluting than ever: That’s the conclusion of a recently released report from the Environmental Protection Agency. Real-world fuel economy now averages 27.1 miles per gallon — up from 13.1 mpg in 1975, when the EPA first began gathering such data. Average CO2 emissions, meanwhile, fell to 319 grams per mile, though they have a way to go to hit their target of 85 grams per mile by 2032. If nothing else, the drive to see relatives for Thanksgiving will have been cleaner than it has ever been.

Paid climate leave

Spain approved “paid climate leave” of up to four days annually so that workers could avoid traveling during poor weather conditions, a move driven in part by the fallout from the country’s disastrous recent floods. The proposal was inspired by similar rules in Canada, and came as the World Resources Institute warned that Europe’s cities must urgently prepare for worsening heat and more hazardous weather, calling for increased investment in infrastructure, adaptation plans, and early warning systems. Europe could see as much as 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming over pre-industrial levels by 2100, WRI said, resulting in longer and more frequent heat waves, as well as spikes in energy demand as use of air conditioning rises.

Katie Rood, football player for Hearts in the Scottish Women’s Premier League and the New Zealand national team.

Carlyle Co-Chairman David Rubenstein, Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin, former US Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, and KKR Co-Chairman Henry Kravis will serve as co-chairs of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on April 23-25, 2025, in Washington, D.C.

The third annual event will bring together US cabinet officials, global finance ministers, central bankers, and Fortune 500 CEOs for conversations that cut through the political noise to dive into the most pressing issues facing the world economy.

French telecoms company Orange plans to partner with Meta and OpenAI to develop new artificial intelligence models trained on African languages, Semafor’s Alexander Onukwue reported. Orange’s project comes amid rising interest in making AI tools available to African audiences, but it may not be an easy undertaking for a diverse continent in which more than 3,000 languages are spoken, Onukwue wrote.