Gulf

1. Africa leads FII kickoff
2. FII gets members to pay
3. Good year for bankers
4. Riyadh population surge
5. Diwali goldbug blues

Parking in Kuwait’s handicap spots gets costly.

Welcome back to Semafor Gulf, where the center of gravity — and much of our team — is firmly in Riyadh this week.

This past weekend was a busy one for conference-goers lucky enough to nab an invitation to the opening of Sindalah, NEOM’s luxury Red Sea island (yachts optional but encouraged, I’m told), or the desert outing closer to Riyadh with PIF’s chairman and other dignitaries.

This year’s Future Investment Initiative (FII), now in its 8th edition, is expected to pull in a record 8,000 attendees. The draw for many is access to PIF and other Saudi government-backed financial firms, as well as networking with business leaders from around the world. In addition to Saudi ministers and CEOs, Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon, Citi’s Jane Fraser, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink are scheduled to speak. TikTok’s CEO is here, and so is SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son. There’s also some $30 billion in deals slated to be announced.

This is a tense moment for Saudi Arabia and the region, but compared to previous editions, the Gulf specifically seems resilient and calm. Even with slower growth in the region this year, the outlook for 2025 is rosy. Saudi Arabia is paring back some of its most ambitious plans, but visitors to Riyadh can see a city in the midst of a transformation.

Beyond the headlines and canned remarks on stage, the most telling success of FII is that people keep flocking here. Three executives I spoke to who don’t see value in paying the $15,000 member fee to officially attend are in Riyadh anyway, taking part in sideline meetings and some secret parties. Maybe my invite was left on one of those Sindalah yachts?

I’m excited to cover FII, along with Liz Hoffman and Sarah Dadouch. Let us know if you’ll be around by replying to this email.

Saudi Arabia spotlights Africa at FII

Electricity, minerals, and youth took center stage at the New Africa Summit in Riyadh, set on the eve of FII. Business and political leaders discussed the challenges and opportunities for meeting Africa’s development needs at the half-day event, a prelude to the main FII summit, which opens tomorrow.

Many African countries suffer from limited infrastructure, a scarcity of electricity, and minimal support for startups, which Tony Elumelu, chairman of the Lagos-based United Bank for Africa, said were “killing business.” Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid al-Falih emphasized Africa’s potential, describing the continent as a future “breadbasket” and a source of critical minerals, and offered his own country as an example of how technology could drive growth. “We don’t want to help Africa; we want to work with Africa,” he said.

FII is big business

One thing that sometimes gets lost at global business jamborees is that the convening can itself be a pretty good business. Seven years on from its first edition, FII now pulls in at least $90 million annually — $2 million from each of 35 partners and $15,000 from 1,300 individual members, according to Frank Kane’s interview with FII Institute CEO Richard Attias in AGBI. The cost to attend “Davos in the desert” remains a bargain, still lower than WEF, Milken, and other global forums, Attias said. And with total deals struck at FII since 2017 hitting $120 billion — possibly exceeding $150 billion after this week — many executives have already concluded that a few days in Riyadh is well worth the trek.

Investment bankers rake in fees

Financiers flocking to the Gulf is a well-documented phenomenon — but is it paying off? New data suggests it’s starting to. Investment bankers in the Middle East and North Africa pulled in an estimated $1 billion in fees during the first nine months of 2024, a 27% increase from last year. Public markets, debt, and M&A activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominated the tally, according to LSEG Deals Intelligence, a unit of the London Stock Exchange Group.

HSBC led fee earnings, followed by Standard Chartered. Saudi Arabia was the most active market, with $470.7 million in fees during the period, followed by the UAE ($395.9 million), for a combined 83% of the region’s fees. The rise in banking fees comes despite a regional economic slowdown driven in large part by OPEC+ production curbs.

Riyadh’s expat explosion

That’s how many additional expats are projected to live in Riyadh by 2034 as the city balloons to 9.6 million residents, from 7 million in 2022, according to a report by property consultancy Knight Frank. Expats and Saudis are basically evenly split in Riyadh, but that ratio will tilt toward expats as the kingdom’s giga projects create more jobs than can be filled by its citizens.

Riyadh is now the focus of Saudi Vision 2030. Major projects like New Murabba, Diriyah Gate, and King Salman Park are progressing rapidly. The city will host Expo 2030 and the men’s soccer World Cup in 2034, spurring construction of a new airport and eight new stadiums for the tournament. The pace of development has triggered a housing boom. Saudi population growth alone will require 305,000 additional housing units, Knight Frank estimates.

Dubai’s gold sellers face uncertain Diwali

The route from Dubai to India could be paved in gold. The world’s most populous country is also its second-biggest gold buyer, and Dubai’s famous Gold Souq — with some tax-free options, guarantees of metal purity, and sheer bauble variety — has long been one of the biggest beneficiaries of that demand. Indian expats and tourists frequent the shopping district.

With Diwali underway this week, Dubai’s gold sellers are watching how record-high prices will affect consumer appetite during one of the biggest shopping seasons of the year, The National reported. Geopolitical tensions, along with uncertainties around the US presidential election, have pushed gold prices beyond $2,700 an ounce. Sales of gold coins and bars typically surge ahead of the first day of Diwali.

Tech

• The UAE expanded its vehicle classifications to include self-driving cars and added regulations that would allow for the inspection, registration, and licensing of autonomous vehicles.
• Aramco’s venture capital arm has earmarked 20% of its $500 million fund to invest in early-stage AI-focused startups. Wa’ed Ventures has already announced an investment in Korean AI chip company Rebellions, and in California-based AI development startup AiXplain.

Energy

• US regulators gave Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy a three-year extension to complete the Golden Pass LNG plant in Louisiana, a joint venture that’s been delayed after the main contractor filed for bankruptcy in March. The facility was expected to boost Qatar’s liquefied natural gas capacity within the next year. — Reuters

IPOs

• ADX is preparing for the UAE’s largest IPO of the year as one of the Middle East’s top grocery chains seeks to raise up to $1.43 billion in its market debut. Lulu Retail’s order books were covered multiple times within hours of offering a 25% stake at a price range of 1.94-2.04 dirhams per share. — Reuters

After Kuwait’s ruler dissolved the gridlocked Parliament in May, expectations were high for major changes to spur economic development. The first shift: a comprehensive update to the country’s 1976 traffic laws.

Kuwait’s new law significantly raises fines across the board, with mobile phone usage while driving jumping from 5 Kuwaiti dinars ($16) to 75 dinars and parking in handicap spots rising from 10 to 150 dinars. Fines for speeding, seatbelt violations, and reckless driving will also increase from token amounts. To combat actual gridlock, expats will be limited to registering only one car in their name.

The Washington Post’s competitors moved quickly to fill the space it vacated when it shifted from being a bulwark against former US President Donald Trump to canceling a planned endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris, Semafor’s Max Tani wrote.