 Polls Disgust with both major parties is the theme here, giving Democrats small or no advantage on the topics they’re most focused on. The parties are tied on which one stands for the “middle class,” and a third of voters say that neither does. By 11 points, voters see Republicans as more “extreme,” but they see Democrats as ineffective. They are not any more trusted on the economy than they were at the start of the 2024 election. Just 16% of voters say the party has “strong leaders.” The crucial third of the electorate doesn’t take those leaders seriously, and tunes them out.  Democrats don’t know their 2028 primary calendar yet, don’t know who’s running for president, and see no obvious party leader on the horizon. In New York’s Democratic mayoral debate this week, when asked to name the most “effective” member of their party, just three of nine candidates named Hakeem Jeffries; none named Chuck Schumer. Rank-and-file Democrats are not aware of or inspired by many Democrats below their recent presidential tickets, and Barack Obama’s usual distance from electoral politics hasn’t stopped the pining for him. A quarter of “moderate” Democrats want one of the only men ineligible to run for president again to be their leader. (Bernie Sanders, not an option on the “leader” question, has the highest overall favorable rating of any non-Obama politician, driven by affection from independents.) The consensus: The best leader of the party is whoever Democrats liked already, or whoever was just very convincing on TV. Ads New Jersey Globe/YouTube- Ras Baraka for Governor, “An American Poem.” Twenty-two years ago, just after he entered politics, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka appeared on “Def Poetry Jam” and recited “American Poem.” (Mos Def introduced him as “hip-hop’s political future.“) BeyoncĂ© plays a cut-up of that video on her “Cowboy Carter” tour, and Baraka’s campaign brought it back for this digital ad, a six-figure buy for the last week of the Democratic gubernatorial primary. It uses two sections of the poem, the most Black-positive sections, “of Albizu being tortured for breathing TaĂno blood” and of “a beautiful Black boy colored into his night.”
- Independent Women’s Voice, “Abigail Spanberger: Virginia’s Anti-Woman Candidate.” Both parties in Virginia believe that the other side’s nominee is vulnerable on social issues. Democrats have recirculated anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage remarks from GOP nominee Winsome Earle-Sears. Republicans, led by Sears, go after Democrat Abigail Spanberger for supporting the Equality Act, which would enshrine transgender rights. That message is on social media (especially Winsome-Sears’ X account) and radio, where this ad is running: “She voted to keep men in women’s sports.” It hasn’t been put on TV yet.
- Americans for Prosperity, “Time to Act.” Charles Koch’s conservative grassroots group tried and failed to prevent Trump from winning the GOP nomination last year. That’s water under the bridge now. AFP’s recent work has focused on passing the Trump-backed tax bill, albeit not as a Trump priority; he is not mentioned at all in this spot, running in competitive districts. “America needs lower taxes, more energy, and stronger borders,” it says. That messaging is also a surrender to Trump: AFP is defending a bill that increases border security funding with no immigration reform, which was not its position during the Biden years.
Scooped!One of the bigger, slower-moving stories in state politics is the conservative backlash to direct democracy, after ballot measures in red states reversed Republican-passed policies. I had cast around helplessly for some electoral hook, but ProPublica’s Jeremy Kohler figured it out: Just explain what’s happening. “Republican elected officials across these states make strikingly similar arguments: They say the initiative process is susceptible to fraud and unduly influenced by out-of-state money.” Next - four days until primaries in New Jersey
- 11 days until primaries in Virginia
- 18 days until primaries in New York City
- 151 days until off-year elections
- 514 days until the 2026 midterm elections
David RecommendsI think you’ll enjoy “The Genius Myth,” Helen Lewis’ perfectly-timed history of how we view intelligence. She tells in close studies of the Shakespeare cult, “Lives of the Artists,” and Carlyle’s Great Man theory, which brings her to eugenics, which brings her to Elon Musk. It’s not malicious, just disappointed, at how the worship of how IQ and mental illness played into human progress. There’s a raging conversation about intelligence and IQ that the left has refused to participate in, and this is a smart reckoning with all of it. |
