Gulf

1. Sovereign wealth deals surge
2. UAE leads in M&A
3. Saudi prince visits Syria
4. Kuwait, Saudi oil find
5. More Dubai robotaxis
6. Qatar’s PSG finally wins

Drones that put out fires — for a change.

What once shocked markets is now becoming routine: for the third straight month, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to raise output, potentially lowering prices. It’s the opposite of what cartels are supposed to do.

Goldman Sachs forecasts oil averaging $60 a barrel this year and dipping to $56 in 2026. Eurasia Group puts the range between $45 and $75 a barrel through 2027 — a steep drop from the $88 average between 2022 and 2024. The consultancy sees the global economy entering a “low-cost energy cycle.”

That’s a win for consumers, and may work out in the long term for Gulf producers whose low-cost barrels will outlast the competition. In the short-term, however, there are jitters.

Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are all expected to post deeper deficits this year, and debt issuance for the latter two is rising. The other three Gulf countries are still in surplus territory, according to the International Monetary Fund, but lower oil revenue could slow spending and drag on foreign investments: both are crucial for creating new revenue streams to diversify the economy. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector expansion slowed in April, according to investment bank Riyad Bank.

Saudi officials are relatively sanguine. Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told the Financial Times last week that the government will stick to its spending plans but take a look at which projects to prioritize, making sure to “spend in support of the growth.” With deficits expected to rise to as much as 5% of GDP, he said the kingdom’s low overall debt means it has a long runway before it reaches its self-imposed debt-to-GDP ceiling of 40%.

Saudi stocks were the world’s worst performers in May, Bloomberg reported. Inflation-adjusted oil is on track to record its third-lowest annual average in 22 years — eroding exporters’ purchasing power. At these levels, tensions within OPEC+ are mounting.

Analysts are still debating the OPEC+ decision. Some say it’s to punish OPEC+ members cheating on quotas, others point to the need to reclaim market share from US shale producers, or to appease US President Donald Trump’s call for lower prices. Most likely, it’s all of the above. The result is the same: oil revenue is sliding and eventually, someone will pay the price.

Mubadala still most active fund

Mubadala retained its position as the world’s most active sovereign wealth fund in May, according to fund tracker Global SWF. Abu Dhabi’s second-largest piggy bank — with around $330 billion in assets — did four deals valued at $2.6 billion last month, including stakes in Uzbek gas and a Korean ride-hailing firm, as well as the formation of a new pharmaceuticals company, Mubadala Bio. Total sovereign wealth deal value is up 23.5% in the last six months globally, compared to the same period the previous year, spurred by Gulf capital being put to work as economic diversification efforts gather pace.

UAE leads regional M&A deal surge

The increase in merger and acquisition deals in the Middle East and North Africa in the first quarter of 2025. The UAE accounted for more than half the deals — $20.3 billion out of a total of $36 billion — according to data compiled by consultancy EY. The country was the top destination for cross-border transactions and hosted the region’s largest wholly domestic deal: G42’s $2.2-billion acquisition of a stake in Khazna, the data center operator. Kuwait ranked second in cross-border deal value, with $2.3 billion in transactions, primarily in the utilities and industrial products sectors. The UAE and Saudi Arabia led outbound investments from the region, together accounting for 94% of the total value.

Saudi steps into Syrian fold

Saudi Arabia and Qatar pledged to help pay public sector salaries in Syria, in the latest sign of Gulf support for Damascus. The aid was announced during Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan’s visit to Damascus on Saturday, a trip that included him leading prayers at the Umayyad Mosque, one of Sunni Islam’s holiest sites. A Saudi analyst broke down in tears on live TV, calling it a historic moment after years in which the Iran-aligned capital was off limits for most Gulf visitors.

The kingdom is in a diplomatic flurry ahead of a June 17-20 UN conference — co-hosted with France — to push for Palestinian state recognition. Over the weekend, Israel barred Prince Faisal and other Arab ministers from entering the West Bank, fearing the optics could strengthen the statehood push.

Kuwait and Saudi share oil find

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have made a fresh oil find in the Neutral Zone — a patch of desert shared by the two countries. The North Wafra Wara-Burgan discovery, north of the existing Wafra field, is the first in the area since 2020. There has been no word of how much crude might lie beneath the surface, but the two governments have described it as a “highly significant” discovery. An initial well saw oil flowing at a rate of more than 500 barrels a day. The two countries have made a series of oil and gas discoveries over the past year, but given lower oil prices, they may not rush to boost output from the new fields.

Pony.ai to launch Dubai robotaxis

Chinese autonomous driving firm Pony.ai is the latest to join Dubai’s push for driverless transport. The Nasdaq-listed company plans to launch trials this year, followed by a fully driverless service in 2026. That timeline mirrors rivals Baidu and WeRide, and is part of the Roads and Transport Authority’s goal for a quarter of all journeys in Dubai to be made using autonomous vehicles by 2030.

Pony.ai already has 300 vehicles operating in major Chinese cities and aims to have thousands picking up passengers within two years. Other Gulf cities, including Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, are also deploying robotaxis.

Qatar’s PSG claims Europe crown

It doesn’t match the scale of hosting the 2022 World Cup, but for Qatar, the weekend win in Munich was a long-sought triumph. Paris Saint-Germain’s 5-0 rout of Inter Milan in the Champions League final marked the first European title since Qatari Sports Investments bought the club 14 years ago. They spent heavily — fielding global stars like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, and Neymar — and dominated the French league. But Europe’s top trophy remained elusive. “Everyone doubted us,” said club president Nasser Al-Khelaifi after the match. “It’s a dream.”

As electricity demand soars — driven by the rapid expansion of data centers and AI — pressure is mounting to scale secure and reliable energy resources.

Join Semafor for a timely conversation with Chairman Mark Christie, FERC; Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky.; and Aamir Paul, President of North American Operations at Schneider Electric, as they discuss how the new Administration plans to accelerate domestic energy production — and whether current infrastructure is up to the task. The discussion will also explore the innovative policies and technologies that could help close the growing supply-demand gap.

June 11, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Real Estate

• Qatar is expanding its tourism offering. Turkish group Rixos Hotels plans to invest $3 billion in the Simaisma project, which will include hotels, an amusement park, and retail on beach-front property north of Doha. — Bloomberg
• Saudi Arabia reduced the age at which its citizens become eligible for housing support from 25 to 20, in an effort to help more young people become homeowners. — Arab News

Sovereign wealth

• India has granted Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund an exemption from foreign investment caps, easing the way for the $925-billion sovereign investor to tap one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The move comes as both nations push toward a $100 billion investment goal following Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Riyadh in April. — Saudi Gazette

Energy

• Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Drilling agreed to acquire 70% of oilfield services company SLB’s rigs business in Kuwait and Oman. The stake is valued at up to $112 million and the deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. — Reuters

Drones are becoming the go-to device for everything from delivering trinkets to dropping bombs. Gulf authorities have a new use for the technology: putting out fires. The Abu Dhabi Civil Defence Authority unveiled what it claimed was the world’s first jet-powered drone designed specifically for firefighting at the World Expo in Osaka.

The Suhail drone can reach hotspots that traditional firefighters can’t. Using LiDAR remote sensing technology, the unmanned craft can precisely map an area to detect where it needs to go while avoiding obstacles. Saudi Arabia is also developing a model: the Falcon firefighting drone, designed for operations in high-altitude. Such devices are seen to be crucial to tackle blazes in the high-rises of Gulf cities.

Silicon Valley giant Anthropic is going toe-to-toe with the Trump administration on artificial intelligence policy, irking White House officials and breaking with AI companies seeking closer ties with the federal government, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti reports.

Anthropic has been lobbying members of Congress to vote against a federal bill that would preempt states from regulating AI, a key part of the Trump administration’s efforts to clear the way for US companies to advance the technology. One of Anthropic’s advisers also pushed against Trump’s recent AI deal with Gulf states.