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Ron DeSantis goes big in Iowa, the House gets ready to hold the Secretary of State in contempt, and ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 15, 2023
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Principals

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Steve Clemons
Steve Clemons

Ron DeSantis flipped some burgers, laughed with the locals, and earned some rave reviews for his campaign-like appearances in Iowa this weekend. While DeSantis hasn’t announced yet, Shelby Talcott writes that the weekend felt like the first true campaign face-off between him and Trump, who canceled a rally in Des Moines due to a tornado watch.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman is preparing contempt proceedings against Secretary of State Antony Blinken for not delivering to McCaul’s committee a classified cable reportedly referring to the Taliban’s advance in Afghanistan. This is an interesting showdown as the cable doesn’t involve executive privilege, as Morgan Chalfant writes, but could affect the State Department’s “dissent channel,” which allows foreign service officers to express their perspectives on major foreign policy actions directly to the Secretary.

Speaking of administration dissenters, I’m just back from Tallinn, Estonia where I heard former Trump National Security Council official Fiona Hill give the Lennart Meri Lecture. She gave an uncomfortable and unvarnished view of American power in the world, stating: “Unfortunately, just as Osama bin Laden intended, the U.S.’s own reactions and actions have eroded its position since the devastating terrorist attacks of 9/11. ‘America fatigue’ and disillusionment with its role as the global hegemon is widespread. This includes in the United States itself—a fact that is frequently on display in Congress, news outlets and think tank debates.” It’s worth a read.

Plus, Shelby Talcott gets one good text from former Turkish basketball player Enes Kanter Freedom about Elon Musk, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, and free speech.

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Priorities

White House: White House: The next debt limit meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders is likely to take place on Tuesday, after staff-level negotiators meet again today. Biden administration officials — including the president — are sounding relatively optimistic. “I really think there’s a desire on their part, as well as ours, to reach an agreement, and I think we’ll be able to do it,” Biden told reporters yesterday during a mid-bike ride gaggle. White House National Economic Council director Lael Brainard characterized ongoing discussions as  “serious” and “constructive” on CBS.

Senate: The Senate could vote to confirm Biden’s labor secretary nominee Julie Su as early as this week. California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s return gives Democrats a path to greenlighting Su, whose nomination has been stalled since April.

House: The House will vote on a handful of law enforcement related measures timed to National Police Week, including a resolution that would condemn the “defund the police movement.” Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s longtime chief of staff Dan Meyer is retiring and will be replaced by his general counsel Machalagh Carr. Meyer, a longtime fixture in Republican politics who also served as chief of staff to then-Speaker Newt Gingrich, will stay on through early June, meaning he’ll still be part of the debt ceiling talks for the time being.

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Need to Know
REUTERS/Staff

Border Patrol agents have seen a 50% drop in attempts by migrants to cross illegally into the U.S. at the southern border since Title 42 lifted last week, according to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The Justice Department also sought an emergency stay while it prepares to appeal a Florida judge’s rulings blocking the administration’s plans to release some migrants on parole.

Rep. Paul Gosar’s digital director, Wade Searle, appears to be a prominent online supporter of white nationalist Nick Fuentes, according to a lengthy investigation by Talking Points Memo. The site uncovered evidence that Searle helped run an anonymous network of accounts under the persona “ChickenRight,” whom Fuentes referred to as one of “the strongest soldiers of the movement.” The digital trail included photos and video that appeared to show Searle attending Fuentes’ rallies. Gosar, one of the farthest right members of Congress, has appeared twice at Fuentes’ America First Conference, the second time via a pre-recorded tape. The Arizona Republican later claimed the video was mistakenly sent to the event thanks to a “miscommunication” among his staff.

The Messenger, a news startup founded by Jimmy Finkelstein, launched on Monday with a Donald Trump interview. The former president declined to say whether he’d support a six-week ban on abortion like the one Ron DeSantis signed in Florida, but said “many people within the pro-life movement feel that that was too harsh.”

Democrat, Zak Malamed, 29, is entering the race to unseat Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y.. A Long Island native who co-founded the political advocacy group The Next50, he’s now the fourth Democrat vying for New York’s 3rd district, which the Cook Political Report now rates as leaning Democrat. Malamed told Semafor that locals “want new leadership that’s going to restore integrity to this district and bring pride to this district.”

The Turkish presidential election looks like it’s headed for a runoff after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan fell short of a majority of the vote. Erdogan still has an edge over his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Elon Musk waded into controversy over the weekend as Twitter announced it would restrict access to some tweets in Turkey ahead of the vote. Critics, including Substacker Matt Yglesias, suggested the site was caving to Erdogan’s demands to silence opponents. “Did your brain fall out of your head, Yglesias?” Musk tweeted in response. “The choice is have Twitter throttled in its entirety or limit access to some tweets. Which one do you want?”

Kadia Goba, Morgan Chalfant, and Jordan Weissmann

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Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House, Senate, and White House staffers met for three hours to discuss the debt ceiling on Saturday, and are set to talk again today. Some aides are complaining that the negotiating group, which has more than 10 people, is too big.

Playbook: After Biden suggested he would be open to Republicans’ ask for stricter work requirements on some safety net programs, the White House said he “will not accept policies that push Americans into poverty” and “will evaluate whatever proposals Republicans bring to the table based on those principles.” The White House says more stringent requirements for Medicaid are not on the table.

The Early 202: Advocates and White House allies are working to get Julie Su’s nomination for Labor secretary across the finish line. Among those stumping for her: her predecessor Marty Walsh, who told the Washington Post “The sooner the vote, the better the vote.”

Axios: During a commercial break at last week’s CNN town hall, one of Trump’s advisers showed him tweets from Democrats dumping on CNN and characterizing the forum as a win for the former president. It caused him to get more aggressive during the latter half of the program, according to Axios.

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Shelby Talcott

The real 2024 campaign started in Iowa this weekend

Semafor/Shelby Talcott

THE SCENE

SIOUX CENTER, Iowa — Florida governors are used to dealing with storms. This time, Ron DeSantis used a tornado watch to his advantage.

The weekend in Iowa was slated to be a duel of sorts between DeSantis and Donald Trump. DeSantis criss-crossed the state for the Feenstra Family Picnic in Sioux Center and a GOP state party fundraiser in Cedar Rapids, while Trump planned to host one of his traditional monster-truck size rallies in Des Moines.

But the weather had other plans: Just a few hours before his rally, Trump cancelled, citing a tornado watch in the area. DeSantis, In what was largely seen as a troll against Trump, made an unannounced stop to a BBQ joint down the road from where his rally was slated to be. He spoke to prospective voters outside with his wife, taking advantage of the evening’s mild weather.

“No idea why Trump pulled the plug, but even if that cancellation was valid, regardless it made Ron look strong,” a DeSantis ally wrote in a text.

It wasn’t just them saying it: DeSantis earned a rare rave review for his overall weekend performance from the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman — something Trump is bound to care about. The frontrunner spent his Mother’s Day lashing out on Truth Social at “Rob DeSanctimonious” and his plummeting polls.

SHELBY’S VIEW

Flipping burgers, smiling with voters, taking jabs at the frontrunner: This was the weekend the 2024 campaign started in earnest.

For DeSantis, the pressure was on to show he still had a pulse after a lengthy stretch in which he’s weathered non-stop attacks from Trump with little response while facing questions about his political skills from voters, donors, and elected officials. He’s expected to officially launch sometime around Memorial Day.

“We absolutely realize we’re second nationally — a fairly distant second,” one DeSantis ally said. “But we absolutely believe we have a gameplan, a candidate and an agenda to get there.”

It was a difficult position to start the weekend. Retail politics aren’t his bread and butter and every interaction was scrutinized by his critics and the press to see if it conformed to the hardening narrative of DeSantis as an awkward, unrelatable stiff. And sure enough, a picture and video of him laughing uproariously while meeting Iowans spread around Twitter, where it was mocked by his tormentors on the right and left.

He notably did not do a formal press gaggle in Sioux Center, despite a push from Congressman Randy Feenstra’s team to do so and a challenge from the Trump campaign to take questions outside conservative media.

But DeSantis showed some signs he might still be the politician who Republicans pegged since the start of the 2024 cycle as Trump’s strongest likely challenger.

He was welcomed at the Feenstra Family Picnic by a host of popular Iowa lawmakers, some of whom were included on an impressive endorsement list of 37 state legislators that was released by Never Back Down just before his trip. The attendance at the picnic was seen by some as a sign DeSantis might end up with more institutional support than Trump in a state that could act as a presidential launching pad.

“If you notice, former President Trump is in Des Moines,” Jim Dean, owner of the Dean Classic Car Museum, where the Feenstra Family Picnic was held, pointed out. “Everybody — lieutenant governor, governor, secretary of ag, treasurer, attorney general — were all here.”

When it came time for his remarks, DeSantis stepped past the Florida-focused speech that much of the country saw during his book tour earlier this year.

Perhaps the most notable section of his remarks warned what Democrats would do with another “sweep” in Washington after 2024: Expand the Supreme Court with liberal judges, make Washington, DC a state with permanently Democratic senators, maybe even end the electoral college.

“If we get distracted and focus the election on the past or on other side issues, then I think the Democrats are going to beat us again,” DeSantis said, flanked by two giant neon Pegasi on the wall behind him. “And I think it’ll be very difficult to recover from that defeat.”

It was a not-so-subtle rebuke of Trump, who still is nursing grudges against allies who refused to join his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The former president called into a far right rally on Saturday to promise an administration position to Michael Flynn, who he removed as National Security Adviser in 2017 after he was caught lying to the FBI and has since become deeply enmeshed in Qanon culture.

THE VIEW FROM DONALD TRUMP

Asked about DeSantis’ remarks by The Messenger, Trump said “I’m not at all caught up in the past” and defended his focus on the last election. “I feel that history is something that, if you don’t learn from it, you’re a fool,” he added later. “That doesn’t mean that I have to devote half of my speech to 2020, but devoting 2% or 3% or 4% is okay.”

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

DeSantis isn’t the only one trying to showcase their support in the state. Trump rolled out his own list of 150 Iowa endorsements, which included grassroots activists, county leaders, and some state legislators.

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Clashes

Republicans look to hold Blinken in contempt of Congress over document fight

REUTERS/Pool

The House Foreign Affairs Committee will soon start contempt proceedings against Secretary of State Antony Blinken over his department’s refusal to hand over an internal document that warned of the impending collapse of Kabul in 2021, according to the panel’s chair.

Holding Blinken in contempt of Congress would be a dramatic escalation in a months-long battle. Rep. Michael McCaul, the committee’s chair, noted on Sunday that it would be the first time such action has been taken against a sitting secretary of state. Ultimately it would be up to the Justice Department to act on a referral from the House.

McCaul issued a subpoena for the classified cable at the end of March and repeatedly pushed back the deadline for the State Department to comply. The most recent deadline came and went last Thursday, with State sending the committee a letter that sought more time, according to a committee aide.

The classified cable, which the Wall Street Journal reported raised alarms about the Taliban’s advance in July 2021, has been a top target of McCaul as he conducts his panel’s investigation into the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The State Department has offered to summarize the cable and brief the committee on its contents. Officials argue, however, that supplying the cable itself would discourage diplomats from freely using the department’s dissent channel, which allows them to privately air concerns to the secretary about major foreign policy decisions.

“To begin a practice of sharing cables outside of the Department would have a profound chilling effect upon those who would consider writing a cable in the future for fear that their confidentiality may be sacrificed,” a top State Department official wrote in a letter to McCaul back in March, according to a copy obtained by Semafor.

But McCaul hasn’t been persuaded.

“It’s not my choice. It’s his. We have a legitimate subpoena. There’s no executive privilege,” he said on ABC News over the weekend, calling the cable “very relevant to congressional oversight.” During an earlier appearance on CBS News, McCaul said that the Foreign Affairs panel would vote on a contempt resolution on May 24 and predicted it would go to the House floor for a vote in the first week of June.

A State Department spokesperson told Semafor it is “unfortunate that despite having received a classified briefing on the dissent channel cable, as well as a written summary, the House Foreign Affairs Committee continues to pursue this unnecessary and unproductive action.”

Morgan Chalfant

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One Good Text

Enes Kanter Freedom is a former professional basketball player. He is Turkish and an outspoken critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

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Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

WHAT THE LEFT ISN’T READING: A House Judiciary subcommittee is holding a hearing this week with Mark Houck, an anti-abortion activist who was acquitted of charges that he obstructed access to an abortion clinic by shoving a volunteer outside a Philadelphia Planned Parenthood. Houck will testify at a hearing about the implications of the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances (FACE) Act, the law he was accused of violating.

WHAT THE RIGHT ISN’T READING: The FBI raided a condo owned by two Russian businessmen in the Trump Tower located in Sunny Isles, Fla.

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— Steve Clemons

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