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The Trump administration voices confidence on trade, oil prices plunge, and a hardliner wins the fir͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 5, 2025
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The World Today

A numbered map of the world.
  1. Trump’s trade optimism
  2. OPEC+ ramps up supply
  3. US pivoting to Ukraine
  4. Romania’s hardline winner
  5. Sheinbaum rebuffs Trump
  6. Trump due process remarks
  7. India-Pakistan tensions rise
  8. US cuts Africa financing
  9. Satellites plunge to Earth
  10. Farewell to Skype

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending an ‘exhilarating’ novel.

1

Trump confident on trade

A chart showing which types of spending contributed to US GDP between 2021 and 2025.

The White House voiced confidence in the US economy in the face of tariffs that have sparked global turmoil, suggesting new trade deals could soon be unveiled. “This is just the cylinder firing,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, referring to recent upbeat data on jobs and inflation. “The American people should expect to hear the engine humming during the second half of 2025.” The Trump administration also reportedly expects to announce at least one trade agreement this week. Analysts are less sanguine, however: Car prices are expected to rise as the full impact of auto tariffs hits, shoppers could soon see shortages, and investors appear to be expecting stagflation.

For more from the White House, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics briefing. →

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2

OPEC+ ups supply, again

A chart showing the price change of brent crude oil over one year.

Oil prices plunged after the OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed to accelerate production hikes once again. The decision to boost output by 411,000 barrels a day followed another substantial increase earlier this year, and will likely put further pressure on oil prices, which sit near four-year lows over fears of weak economic growth globally. Prices could fall further still, with ING and Goldman Sachs slashing their forecasts for this year. The huge new supply ostensibly comes in response to calls by US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices, but experts say the decision has more to do with maintaining discipline within the bloc and punishing countries that have busted group-wide output caps.

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3

US signals pivot to Ukraine

A chart showing different government’s support for Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict with Russia.

The US appeared ready to expand its support for Ukraine amid signs of growing frustration with Moscow in Washington. American officials told The New York Times that a Patriot air-defense system currently in Israel will be refurbished and dispatched to Ukraine, while the White House has prepared options for President Donald Trump to ramp up economic pressure on Russia, Bloomberg reported. Signs of a possible pivot came after Washington agreed a minerals deal with Kyiv that a Reuters columnist noted was “heavy on symbolism.” Though the Trump administration has pushed a rapprochement with Moscow since coming into office, the president has voiced anger in recent weeks with his Russian counterpart, with Ukraine arguing the Kremlin is slow-walking US-mediated peace negotiations.

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4

Hardline Romania candidate wins

George Simion
Alkis Konstantinidis/File Photo/Reuters

An anti-immigration hardliner who wants to halt military aid to Ukraine won the first round of Romania’s presidential election. In a resounding defeat for Romania’s pro-European governing coalition, George Simion, a firm supporter of US President Donald Trump who rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic for pushing back against mass vaccination, garnered 41% of the vote. The results represent a major setback for the European Union and Ukraine: A Simion presidency would likely position Romania alongside Hungary and Slovakia as EU member-states skeptical of supporting Kyiv. Simion will now face the centrist mayor of Bucharest in the final round, in two weeks’ time.

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5

Trump-Sheinbaum row erupts

A chart showing the number of migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border.

US President Donald Trump blasted his Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum after she rejected his offer to send American troops to fight drug cartels. Sheinbaum said she declined US military involvement because “our territory is inviolable,” leading Trump to respond that she wavered out of fear of the powerful drug gangs: “She’s so afraid of the cartels she can’t walk,” he said. The public row threatens to derail what had been — by Trump’s standards — a relatively stable relationship, with Sheinbaum winning plaudits for her handling of the US leader’s pressure over trade and security. Mexico, the US’ biggest trading partner, largely evaded “Liberation Day” tariffs, and the number of migrants crossing the border has plummeted.

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6

Trump Constitution controversy

US President Donald Trump
Leah Millis/Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he did not know whether the country’s citizens and residents were protected by due process as part of his immigration crackdown. The remarks — which saw the US leader reply “I don’t know” when asked by NBC News whether he needs to uphold the Constitution — come with Trump facing a raft of legal challenges over his effort to curb migration into the country: “Trump has attacked judges, called for their impeachment and ignored a Supreme Court ruling,” The New York Times noted. The president appears to believe “it’s a personal choice whether he obeys the Constitution on which US democracy depends,” a CNN reporter wrote.

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7

India-Pakistan tensions worsen

A parade at a Pakistan-India joint check post.
Mohsin Raza/Reuters

Saber-rattling between India and Pakistan intensified following the killing of tourists in Indian-ruled Kashmir last month, but the threat of all-out war appeared limited. Islamabad carried out several high-profile test-fires of ballistic missiles, while the heads of India’s air force and navy met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to offer up “retaliatory options” for striking Pakistan, The Indian Express reported. However, a former adviser to India’s foreign ministry appeared to downplay the appetite for conflict, saying there was only “domestic pressure and diplomatic space for a sharp, targeted, and limited response.” New Delhi blames Islamabad for supporting the militants that carried out last month’s attack, charges Pakistan denies.

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Live Journalism
A graphic promoting Semafor’s tech event.

As AI continues to evolve at a rapid pace, companies are shifting from experimentation to real-world deployment and practical use within their businesses.

Semafor’s Reed Albergotti will host newsmaking conversations in San Francisco on the breakthroughs driving AI and how they’re changing the way we work, live, and interact with the world. Discussions will dive into how global, national, and regional AI ecosystems are shaping the technology’s future, and why building the policy frameworks governing them is more critical than ever for its potential.

May 21, 2025 | San Francisco, CA | Request Invitation

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8

US slashes AfDB support

A chart showing the pledges of top donors to the African Development Fund.

The Trump administration intends to slash funding for the African Development Bank and its private-finance arm. The plans, outlined in a budget proposal unveiled last week, are part of a major push by Washington to reduce foreign aid and humanitarian support that has included the closure of international aid agency USAID and several long-running health programs. Though bankers and politicians in Africa have said international aid fostered a culture of dependence on the continent, experts have cautioned that the abrupt cutting of humanitarian support with no replacement programs in place could put lives at risk and hit Africa’s poorest nations hardest.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa briefing. →

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9

Soviet-era craft comes crashing back

An image of the Earth from space.
NASA

A Soviet-era spacecraft once destined for Venus will likely crash back into Earth this week, though it is unclear where it will land. Kosmos 482 never made it out of Earth’s orbit because of a rocket malfunction when it launched in 1972, and though its uncontrolled reentry is “not without risk, we should not be too worried,” one scientist told The Guardian, equating it to the many meteorites that fall to Earth each year. Kosmos 482 showcases a growing trend: As ever more spacecraft are sent into orbit — for research, economic development, as well as internet services — increasing numbers are crashing back to Earth, with the rate set to reach up to 50 per day by 2035, Bloomberg reported.

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10

Farewell, Skype

A logo of Skype.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters Illustration/File Photo

Skype shuts down today, marking the end for an iconic internet service that was ultimately overtaken by mobile apps and chat software. Skype launched in 2003 offering voice connectivity between computers before adding low-cost international phone calls, helping drive a huge expansion of similar services, and was bought by eBay. A later acquisition by Microsoft ultimately proved its death knell after the tech giant decided to focus instead on its own business-chat software, Teams. In its more than 20 years, Skype played a huge role in the internet’s development, and in countless people’s lives, from facilitating long-distance romances to maintaining family ties across oceans.

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Flagging
  • Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Prague for talks with the Czech prime minister.
  • Britain’s King Charles attends a parade ahead of the 80th anniversary of VE Day.
  • The annual Met Gala takes place.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

The topic of cancer

US cancer death rates have fallen significantly: Americans’ risk of dying from cancer at any given age now is about a third lower than in 1990. The same is true in lots of other high-income countries. (The actual number of cancer deaths has gone up, but that’s just a result of people not dying of other things, so they live long enough to get cancer.) Some people argue that it’s not surprising: The 1990s were the peak of cancer mortality in the US, thanks to rates of smoking going up in the first half of the 20th century. But as Our World in Data’s Saloni Dattani argues, cancer’s retreat is driven by many more things than the drop in smoking.

Rates of colorectal and stomach cancer deaths fell before smoking levels began to drop, and deaths from childhood cancers are down too. Partly this is because of improvements in treatment, which stop people dying once they get cancer, but the incidence of cancers has also fallen. One reason appears to be the growth in childhood vaccinations, which not only improves cancer survival — many cancer patients are immunocompromised, so infections can be deadly — but also lowers the chance of a person developing it in the first place. Many bacteria and viruses, notably human papillomavirus and hepatitis B and C viruses, directly cause cancer, and the introduction of mass vaccination against HPV, for example, led to a huge decline in cervical cancer.

Euro trip

Cody Strahm and his wife Ashley spent two months in Europe, and loved it. They had lived for a long time in Durham, North Carolina, had high-paying jobs, and “were living the American dream,” they said: Life was good. “Then we went to Europe,” specifically Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and the UK. “We lingered and people-watched at parks and cafes,” says Cody. “We struck up conversations over a pint or two at pubs… We learned a little French. We walked everywhere.” They lost weight, they were healthier, they felt safer. They felt there was a sense of community that they had lacked. And, back in the US, they found they missed it.

They liked their high US salaries, so they made a decision: “We’d try to bring the European lifestyle with us. We’d do a lot more walking [and] lingering in third spaces.” But half-hour walks to the grocery store were unsuccessful: People “were worried enough to pull up and ask if we needed a ride.” Public transport felt threatening. So they packed their bags for a new trip: A four-month journey around Europe to search for a new, permanent home. (They found it: We won’t spoil the story by saying where.)

The pain in Spain

Traditional power plants, whether gas, coal, or nuclear, heat boiling water into steam to drive spinning turbines. Those turbines can weigh over 100 tons and spin very, very fast — 3,000 revolutions a minute — so they have a lot of kinetic energy. That’s important in the system: If the supply of energy from the power plant drops, the rotor’s spin will slow, and the momentum is converted into electricity. “This ‘inertia’ will buy the grid the few seconds it needs to activate its fast-response systems,” such as batteries and smaller engines, when a generator goes down, the tech writer Alex Chalmers writes in Works in Progress. Without it, a short-term drop in supply can cause oscillations in the system and bring it down.

Spain’s entire grid collapsed simultaneously last week, and a key reason seems to have been that so much of its supply is from solar and renewable energy, which has no inertia. “The use of intermittent energy sources doesn’t cause power outages,” says Chalmers, but in the absence of inertia from traditional generators, outages can go from being local to affecting an entire country. “As Western countries continue to go full steam ahead on building out wind and solar capacity,” he says, “policymakers are yet to face-up to these trade-offs.”

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Semafor Recommends
A graphic showing the cover of the book This Strange Eventful History by Claire Messud.

This Strange Eventful History by Claire Messud. The novel follows four generations of a French Algerian family and artfully blurs fiction and history along the way, The New York Review of Books said, with the outlet’s reviewer labelling it “exhilarating.” Buy This Strange Eventful History from your local bookshop.

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