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US-China trade plummets, pressure to accept a peace deal increases on Kyiv, and Liverpool win the Pr͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Liverpool
sunny Damascus
thunderstorms Kampala
rotating globe
April 28, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US-China trade plummets
  2. Trade deals make progress
  3. Trump’s canal demands
  4. Kyiv peace deal pressure
  5. Group chats’ influence
  6. Paying Syria’s debt
  7. Philippines-China row
  8. Ebola over in Uganda
  9. Happy birthday USB
  10. Victory for Liverpool

The London Review of Substacks, and Kafka’s The Trial at 100.

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1

Trade war’s impact emerges

Containers at a port in Hong Kong.
Tyrone Siu/Reuters

Trade between the US and China plummeted and firms slashed investment as Washington’s tariffs rippled through the global economy. Cargo being shipped from China to the US “is collapsing,” Apollo’s chief economist noted, which he said would soon translate to higher inflation for Americans. Meanwhile, companies are cutting business travel and consultant fees and slowing hiring, The Wall Street Journal reported. Consumers will soon be affected: A former economic adviser to US President Donald Trump said the poor would be among those hardest hit by the “highly regressive” tariffs, and businesses putting in orders for Christmas gifts — 80% of the $30 billion worth of toys sold in the US are made in China — are worried about price hikes and shortages.

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2

Trump trade talks progress

A chart showing Asian countries’ share of exports to the US.

Asian countries made progress on reaching trade deals with Washington, but hurdles remain in the White House’s talks with China and the European Union. US President Donald Trump said in a recent interview with Time magazine that “many deals” would be finalized “over the next three to four weeks,” with Bloomberg reporting that Asian export-driven economies such as India, Japan, and South Korea were pushing to avoid a return of Trump’s punishing “Liberation Day” tariffs. European officials, meanwhile, “are still trying to understand the basic parameters” of what Trump wants, while talks with Beijing are in doubt: Trump’s treasury secretary played down Trump’s assertion that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had called, and China has outright denied it.

For more on Washington’s trade war, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. â†’

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3

US wants free pass for ships

A chart showing container traffic along the Panama Canal by country of origin.

President Donald Trump demanded free transit for US ships crossing the Panama and Suez canals, arguing that the routes wouldn’t exist without Washington. Trump asked his secretary of state to “immediately take care” of the issue of US ships being charged. Panama’s leader said there was no basis for them to travel for free. Trump has vowed repeatedly to take control of the Panama Canal over what he calls the unfair treatment of American firms; Panama says the canal’s sovereignty is not in question. Trump’s bid for free travel came as Beijing dialed up its scrutiny of a deal for a Hong Kong firm to sell two ports on either side of the canal to a US consortium.

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4

Pressure for Ukraine deal mounts

Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Thomas Peter/Reuters

Pressure grew on Ukraine to accept a US-brokered peace deal, while Washington’s patience with Russia appeared also to be growing thin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration will this week decide whether to continue pursuing a settlement to end the three-year war, but the deal would involve Kyiv ceding Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014. President Donald Trump said his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy was open to the deal, but Ukrainian leaders have previously rejected giving up Crimea as constitutionally and politically impossible. Russia signaled readiness to talk to Ukraine after Trump expressed anger at recent missile attacks on Kyiv, although Russia’s foreign minister told CBS that no deal was imminent.

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5

Private group chats’ influence

Al Lucca/Semafor

Conversations among global elites increasingly taking place in private instant-message chats have “fueled a new alliance of tech and the US right,” Semafor’s Ben Smith reported. Group chats — in the spotlight since an infamous White House Signal group where military plans were inadvertently shared with a journalist — represent “the single most important place” for the tech world’s recent realignment behind US President Donald Trump, Smith wrote. One influential group contains the tech leader Marc Andreessen and key conservative influencers, while comparable groups exist for Black political elites, anti-Trump liberals, major podcasters, and more. The chats are “the memetic upstream of mainstream opinion,” one organizer said, while another told Smith that “I’ve been amazed at how much this is coordinating our reality.”

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6

Saudi, Qatar to pay off Syrian debt

Syria’s president.
Khalil Ashawi/File Photo/Reuters

Saudi Arabia and Qatar said they would pay off Syria’s outstanding debts with the World Bank. Though the sum involved is small — $15 million — the move is freighted with symbolism. For one, the Gulf powers’ support is seen as key to helping rebuild Syria after decades of dictatorship and civil war crippled its economy. But it also puts two countries that until recently were at loggerheads on the same side: Saudi Arabia had led a years-long embargo on Qatar that was only lifted in 2021, and though both nations are taking on greater diplomatic roles within and outside the Gulf, Saudi views Qatar’s dealings with groups such as Hamas with suspicion.

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7

Beijing-Manila dispute expands

A chart showing the unfavorability ratings of China in several countries.

China and the Philippines unfurled their national flags on a tiny disputed sandbank in the South China Sea, putting a recent diplomatic detente in doubt. The territorial standoff on the uninhabited Sandy Cay, which lies near the disputed Spratly Islands, came days after Manila and Washington began joint military drills. The Philippines and China had, until recently, appeared to have reached an accommodation: Manila just this month successfully resupplied a ship grounded on another disputed island, without Beijing’s navy disrupting the mission as it has in the past. But analysts had already warned the calm may be temporary, with one telling the South China Morning Post that both countries were trying to “prepare for something extraordinary.”

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Plug

Global Tech Wars: How China’s next wave of innovation is reshaping the global balance of power. China is leading in cutting-edge industries like AI, electric vehicles, and more. Will China’s technological leadership translate into geopolitical dominance? In Global Tech Wars, Financial Times journalist James Kynge unpacks the shifts redefining economics and global power structures. Listen now.

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8

Uganda Ebola outbreak over

A chart showing health expenditure per capita by region, with sub-Saharan Africa at the bottom.

Uganda declared an end to its latest Ebola outbreak, three months after officials confirmed cases of the deadly disease. The health ministry said Uganda had gone more than 40 days without registering a new case. Ebola outbreaks are frequent in Uganda, where the virus thrives in its many tropical forests, and which borders the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the disease is also common. This year, the African Development Bank tapped funding to boost pandemic preparedness on the continent, where gaps in health care have been “exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic and other health crises,” an AfDB official said.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. â†’

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9

The USB cable turns 25

A USB cable
Mathias Zommer/Pxhere Creative Commons photo

The USB cable turned 25 years old yesterday. “Universal Serial Bus” technology replaced inconveniently large, slow cables, as well as several competing standards, allowing for much faster data transfer. It took a few years to gather pace, but by 2003 Apple was releasing USB-ready Macs, and now many homes have USB support in their electrical wall sockets — just in time for it to be replaced by wireless charging and data transfer. A quarter-century is a long period for digital technology, although that itself is a reminder of how quickly things change: Older tech was not replaced so quickly. The wheel remains undefeated as a form of transport and is yet to be rendered obsolete by Wheel 2.0.

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10

Liverpool win Premier League

Liverpool players celebrating
Phil Noble/Reuters

Liverpool Football Club won the English soccer league in front of its fans for the first time in 35 years. Liverpool is one of English sport’s most successful institutions — Flagship’s Tom, a lifelong fan, should declare his interest here, but the statement is objectively true — but its victory shows how soccer has internationalized: In 1990, all but Liverpool three players were British or Irish. (It won in 2020, but fans were barred from the stadium because of COVID-19.) Now British players are a minority: Its beloved superstar, Mohamed Salah, is Egyptian. It’s also US-owned, like many other British teams — among them Wrexham AFC, which is owned by two Hollywood stars and just won promotion to the division below the Premier League.

For more on Liverpool’s victory, read the London Review of Substacks, below. â†’

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Flagging
  • European ministers meet in Denmark for a Baltic energy summit.
  • BRICS foreign ministers gather in Rio de Janeiro for a two-day meeting.
  • Amazon launches the first 27 satellites for its long-delayed Project Kuiper internet network.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Look who’s Tolkien

The world of Middle-Earth, the setting of The Lord of the Rings (and The Hobbit, and The Rings of Power, should anyone be unwise enough to watch that), is a world of magic. In the movies and the TV show magic is kinetic, explosive: Gandalf and Saruman battle by hurling each other around with their minds; Saruman throws a fireball from Orthanc. But in J.R.R. Tolkien’s books, such “obvious” magic is relatively rare, writes the historian and Tolkien fanatic Bret C. Devereaux on the blog A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry. Magic for Tolkien was subtle and spiritual: A thing of connection to an unseen world, of revelation.

Gandalf says “Saruman, your staff is broken,” and the staff shatters. He says to the Balrog “You cannot pass” (not, as the films have it, “You shall not pass”), and the bridge shatters. Gandalf does not will these things or even foresee them: He simply observes the unseen, spiritual world and describes it, and the seen world conforms. His battle with these and other, greater enemies is about “the truth of their vision of the world,” not flashy spells, and Gandalf is victorious because his moral, spiritual vision is keener, says Devereaux.

The memes of production

Do you know that meme about equality vs. equity? In the “equality” scene, a tall guy, a child, and an infant are trying to watch a baseball game over a fence: Each is standing on a box, and the infant is too small to see over. In the “equity” scene, the man is standing on the ground, the child on a single box, and the infant on two boxes, and now they can all see the game. To annoy a philosopher, says the philosopher Joseph Heath, all you need to do is mention that meme. “Every single one of our students has seen it,” he says. “And not only have they seen it, they think that it’s a complete conversation-stopper.” It surprises them that philosophers still bother to debate equality as a moral ideal.

But the model of “equity” presented was abandoned by serious philosophers in the 1970s, with John Rawls’ A Theory of Justice, Heath argues. Even the most egalitarian thinkers focus on equalizing resources, or compensating for bad luck, not creating strictly identical outcomes — and real-world goods are far more complicated than just who gets a box. The diversity, equity, and inclusion movement has not engaged with political philosophy, and philosophers have not engaged much with the movement. Perhaps this is why, says Heath: If the kids-on-boxes meme is how DEI proponents interpret equity, “it basically precludes any competent political philosopher from endorsing DEI.”

There’s a golden sky

In the 1970s and 1980s, Liverpool Football Club was the dominant force in English soccer, winning 11 out of a possible 20 league titles. But in 1989 the club was struck by tragedy: A crowd crush during a cup match led to the deaths of 97 fans. The player-coach, the great Kenny Dalglish, led them to one more victory but then quit, overcome by grief. Liverpool went 30 years before they won the league again — and with cruel timing, they did so during the pandemic, so the stadium was empty and the fans were unable to celebrate. Yesterday, on a sunny spring afternoon, they beat a hapless Tottenham Hotspur to clinch their 20th league title, creating an explosion of catharsis in the red half of the city.

The undoubted star man of the season has been Mohamed Salah, the superstar Egyptian forward. He has scored more goals than any other player, and set up more for other people. At 32 he is perhaps in the autumn of his remarkable, record-breaking career, but seems to be getting better. He grew up in rural Egypt and traveled four hours a day each way to train; he is a devout Muslim who thanks God after scoring (so, quite often), and is credited with reducing anti-Islam sentiment in the UK. “Sports don’t always give us heroes,” says the sportswriter and Liverpool fan Thor Hogan. “But every now and then, someone comes along who combines brilliance with goodness.”

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Semafor Recommends

The Trial by Franz Kafka. One hundred years since its publication, this unsettling, pessimistic novel is as relevant as ever, a professor of literature argued in The Conversation. Its premise is simple: The protagonist “wakes up to find two strange men in his bedroom, who inexplicably place him under arrest. Later, he is sentenced to death for a crime he knows nothing about by a judge he never sees.” The workings of bureaucracy are slow, arbitrary, and malevolent; the world Kafka draws is nightmarish. But despite, or because of, its bleakness, it is “one the greatest novels ever written.” Buy The Trial from your local bookstore.

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