Gulf

1. Iran talks in Oman
2. Gulf IPOs hit pause
3. Oil slump continues
4. Emirates’ Clark on trade
5. Trump’s advance team

Millions of dollars in tiny envelopes.

US-Iran talks ease war fears — for now

A potential regional war is a bigger worry in the Gulf than tariffs, but that risk has been momentarily defused after Washington and Tehran agreed to hold nuclear talks in Oman. While no timeline was announced to reach a deal, the meetings this weekend could offer a path to easing tensions, according to Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus. But the window won’t stay open for long, she warned.

The diplomatic overture follows Israel’s claim that it has weakened Iran’s air defenses and a watchdog’s warning over Tehran’s accelerating uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, the US is ramping up its regional diplomatic and military presence — the latter with strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and a carrier battle group on its way to the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, some of the most senior leaders from the US and the Middle East — including Israel — joined talks in Abu Dhabi this week, where they discussed how the region can “contribute more to mutual defence and stability,” former US diplomats Elliott Abrams and Thomas R Nides wrote.

Gulf IPOs stall on market rout

Crashing global stock markets are likely to delay new listings in the Gulf, reversing expectations for another banner year for IPOs. The region ranked among the top five globally in 2024 for stock market debuts — raising $12.9 billion.

More than 40 companies were expected to go public this year, according to KAMCO Investment Co., a Kuwait-based asset manager. But CEO of Saudi consultancy Elevare360 and Semafor columnist Wael Mahdi said activity may not resume until the fourth quarter or early 2026. That parallels IPO delays elsewhere, with multiple finance and tech firms putting off their public debuts in the US, too.

Investors in the Gulf are still eyeing potential airline IPOs, including Saudi budget carrier Flynas and Abu Dhabi’s flagship Etihad. Listed airlines remain scarce in the region, so the companies are likely to attract attention — if they come to market — because the Middle East was the only region globally where airline passenger yields rose last year, driven by strong demand for premium long-haul travel.

Bracing for $40 oil

Projections of a global recession are driving bets that oil prices will fall. Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for Brent to $62 a barrel this year and $58 in 2026, citing weaker demand growth, slower capital spending, and a potential trade war. Prices could even dip to $40 a barrel, the bank said. Gulf producers will likely have widening deficits and shrinking surpluses, crimping both economic diversification spending and global investments.

But OPEC+ is on the offensive, taking advantage of tariff exemptions on oil imports to the US and boosting supply. The trade war will hurt US shale producers, giving OPEC+ a chance to win market share. The group “made a smart, aggressive move while staying out of the US’s firing line,” wrote Robin Mills, CEO of consultancy Qamar Energy.

Emirates chief sees ‘troubled times’

The head of the world’s largest long-haul airline warned that the aviation industry is in “uncharted territory” as US President Donald Trump’s trade war pushes up costs for airlines. “We are in troubled times,” Emirates President Tim Clark told CNBC in an interview recorded March 20 but broadcast this week. The 22-year Emirates veteran called Trump’s moves a deliberate “trade reset” aimed at reshaping global commerce that may lead to “troubled waters” in the short-term. China’s retaliatory tariffs threaten Emirates as costs across the supply chain are expected to rise.

On travel demand, however, Clark was sanguine: Long-haul travel remains “very strong,” with bookings solid through the rest of this year and into early 2026. However, airline stocks are now falling on weaker passenger demand outlook as the trade war deepens.

US Energy Sec lays Gulf groundwork

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is heading to the Gulf for a nearly two-week trip where he will “lay the groundwork” for President Donald Trump’s expected visit to the region in mid-May, Reuters reported. The visit to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia comes as oil hits four-year lows and with talks between Washington and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear program due this weekend. The former fracking executive is scheduled to tour oil and gas production sites — in search of cost-cutting measures US producers might adopt — and Abu Dhabi’s nuclear energy facility. The visit comes weeks after Wright met with Israel Energy Minister Eli Cohen, who pitched an oil pipeline running from Saudi Arabia to Eilat, Israel, where oil could be shipped to Europe.

Olugbenga Agboola, Founder and CEO, Flutterwave; Robert Bradway, Chairman and CEO, Amgen; Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary; John Caplan, CEO and Director, Payoneer; Joanne Crevoiserat, CEO, Tapestry; Jacek Olczak, CEO, PMI and more will join the Taking the Pulse of Consumer Confidence session at the 2025 World Economy Summit. As consumer spending drives global economic growth, this session examines how shifting demographics, digital transformation, and economic uncertainty are redefining consumer sentiment and behavior worldwide.

April 25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Learn More

People

• It could be a screenplay: MBC Group is giving an Aussie media veteran a fresh start with its top job. The Middle East’s largest broadcaster named Mike Sneesby CEO as the region’s streaming wars heat up. Sneesby’s last post, as chief of Sydney media conglomerate Nine Entertainment, ended in a staff no-confidence vote against him. — Variety

Deals

• Peter Thiel’s Valar Ventures has teamed up with Sanabil Investments, the venture capital arm of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, to jointly lead a $110 million funding round in SILQ Group, a newly formed commerce platform targeting markets in the Gulf and emerging Asia. — Bloomberg
• Haball, a Pakistan-based shariah-compliant supply chain fintech company, raised $52 million to expand in its home market and enter Saudi Arabia this year. The company provides tools for payment collection, digital invoicing registration, financing, and tax compliance services.

Risk & Diplomacy

• The Republic of the Congo is the latest to ink a comprehensive trade deal with the UAE, which has signed similar low- or no-tariff deals with countries like India, Israel, and Turkey as it looks to become a global trade hub. The agreement aims to more than double trade between the two countries — which primarily consists of metals and petrochemicals — to $7.2 billion by 2032.
• Saudi Arabia has released more than 40 long-term prisoners — primarily activists — who were arbitrarily detained, a Human Rights Watch report found. Yet authorities continue to imprison people “for the peaceful exercise of their rights,” the humanitarian organization said.

For Halloween, it’s candy; for Christmas, it’s gifts — and for Eid, the haul is cold, hard cash. Previously, no one really knew how much was given in Eidiya, the money children receive during the two annual Islamic festivals. This is most often splurged on toys and candy, or saved and compounded by the financially savvy.

Now we have one data point from Qatar. The country set up 10 special ATMs that dispensed smaller-value notes — 5, 10, 50, and 100 riyals ($27) — the denominations typically handed out during Eid. The total withdrawn? $50 million, for a country with around 500,000 under the age of 19.

Are there any winners in the energy transition during a rapidly escalating global trade war? For the most part, tariffs clearly work against decarbonization, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell writes.

Yet there could be a few silver linings in the storm. A tanking stock market means lower borrowing costs, while central banks elsewhere like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are projected to cut rates more than previously expected, which could benefit renewable project developers.