Net Zero

1. Trump’s green bump
2. Global demand surge
3. Shell’s new strategy
4. BYD trumps Tesla
5. Trump’s mining push

Tariffs for Venezuelan oil importers, and companies drop climate-linked executive pay deals.

Climate investors see opportunity in Trump

US President Donald Trump’s seemingly pro-fossil fuel policies may be drawing the ire of climate activists, but for some climate investors, they signal an opportunity to pick up renewables assets on the cheap.

“The US is going to be a very relevant, meaningful market for us in the next few years,” said Oscar Perez, CEO and managing partner of Madrid-based Qualitas Energy, which last year acquired a North Carolina solar-and-battery-storage business after around 12 years of staying out of the US. Speaking to Semafor, he added: “Overall, there was a feeling of potential. This was the perfect environment, we found.”

It is one of a number of deep-pocketed investors who see bad climate vibes actually creating value by driving down the purchase price of major renewables assets: Executives at private equity giants Brookfield Asset Management and KKR, as well as the investment bank Jefferies, earlier told Bloomberg they, too, saw opportunity in the US renewable sector.

Global demand surge

Global electricity consumption surged by 4.3% in 2024, nearly double the annual average growth rate over the past decade and almost twice as fast as wider energy demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

Although China accounted for more than half of the rise, demand reached a new high in advanced economies amid structural shifts including growing access to electricity-intensive cooling appliances, data center expansion, and a pickup in industrial production.

The good news? For the first time ever, power generation from renewables and nuclear covered two-fifths of total global generation. New renewable energy capacity installed worldwide set a new annual record for the 22nd consecutive year, with the continued rapid adoption of clean technologies “increasingly loosening the link between economic growth and and emissions,” the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Shell’s new strategy

Shell plans to increase its natural gas production in a bid to become the world’s top LNG producer, CEO Wael Sawan told investors.

Like its peers among European oil majors, Shell had already rolled back elements of its climate strategy, dropping a commitment to phase down oil production and slashing its renewable energy business. Now, the company says it will increase gas drilling at least through 2030, but that it can do so with lower emissions intensity. Shell will also dedicate at least 10% of its total spending to low-carbon projects by 2030. And it plans to increase returns to shareholders, giving its share price a jolt.

BYD trumps Tesla

2024 annual revenue for China’s EV giant BYD, beating Tesla’s revenue for the first time since 2018. The results officially crown BYD as the world’s top EV maker; including plug-ins and pure electrics, BYD now sells about as many cars each year as Ford. Its net profit also increased 34% for the year, beating analysts’ expectations and sending its share price up. In addition to driving down costs, the company has pushed to improve its offerings, extending the range of its batteries and adding driver assistance features to most models. While still excluded from the US, BYD is pushing into new markets across Asia and in Australia.

Trump’s mining push

US President Donald Trump wants to accelerate the domestic development of new critical mineral mines. An executive order this month aims to get ahead of looming shortages of minerals used in electronics, batteries, grid infrastructures, and data centers.

Today, much of the supply chain for these minerals is controlled by China. But opportunities for the US to increase domestic production of lithium, copper, and other minerals are severely constrained by permitting bureaucracy: New mines can take two decades or more to develop in America, home to the world’s second-longest mining permitting timeline. Trump’s order expands the list of minerals eligible for special support, requires federal agencies to find new ways to cut permitting times, and orders the Export-Import Bank to find new deals to buy raw minerals overseas for processing in the US. But analysts point out it does little to address another key obstacle to new mines — a lack of power infrastructure — and also risks running roughshod over land that is culturally or environmentally sensitive.

New Energy

• Battery storage in US homes surged by 64% year-on-year in 2024 as households seek to avoid blackouts and harness more onsite solar power.

Fossil Fuels

• The US will impose new tariffs on products from countries that import oil from Venezuela, President Donald Trump said on Monday, claiming that Caracas had “purposefully and deceitfully” sent criminals into America. The list of such importers is topped by the US and China.
• A proposed gas pipeline in the northeast US that was killed by Democrats years ago may get a new lease of life — with Democrats’ support.
• Fresh oil field output is expected to total about 2.9 million barrels a day this year, up from 800,000 in 2024, as new projects from Brazil to Saudi Arabia are set to come online.

Finance

• Companies including HSBC, UBS, and BP have dropped climate goals from executives’ bonus pay plans following anti-ESG pushback.

Politics & Policy

• The US Environmental Protection Agency either canceled or prevented from being awarded grants with a total cumulative value of more than $230 million from Jan. 20 through Mar. 7.

COP30

• Global trade wars led by the US are becoming a major concern for the energy transition, Brazil’s climate secretary Ana Toni warned.

Personnel

• Geoff Pyatt, a former top US energy diplomat under the previous Biden administration, will join the consulting firm McLarty Associates to help companies work on critical mineral mining.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s play for more control over US banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, is about to enter a contentious new phase, reported Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Rachel Witkowski.

“There are two ways to consolidate federal bank regulation. First, you can change the law,” wrote one financial analyst. “The other way is for one federal entity to assert all the power it has under law.”

“Secretary Bessent has now made it clear that the Trump Administration will open Door Number Two.”