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Trump says he would ‘rather not’ impose tariffs on China, the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, a͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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cloudy Davos
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January 24, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump’s China olive branch
  2. China EV sales peaked?
  3. BOJ raises interest rates
  4. Trump to ‘demand’ rate cuts
  5. Davos shuns development
  6. Climate hits global schools
  7. Cartel violence protests
  8. ChatGPT outage hits coders
  9. Everest permit fees raised
  10. Unpopular soccer video refs

The value of TikTok, and recommending a new album by veteran Scottish rockers.

1

Trump softens China rhetoric

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he would “rather not” impose tariffs on China. His remarks contrast with recent comments in which he threatened 10% penalties, and fall short of proposed 60% levies floated during his campaign. But trade remains a sore spot for Trump: Among his first acts in office was an order to review trade policy, viewed as offering leverage in negotiations with China. Momentum in Washington appears tilted towards hawkishness, with lawmakers reintroducing a bill to revoke trade normalization with Beijing. Businesses are downbeat: A majority surveyed by the American Chamber of Commerce in China worried about a further deterioration in ties, the most in five years.

For more on the Trump presidency, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Investors question China’s EVs

A chart showing the 10 best-selling EVs worldwide

Berkshire Hathaway, the investment group run by Warren Buffett, has sold most of its shares in the Chinese electric vehicle company BYD. Berkshire was a prescient investor in BYD, now the world’s largest EV manufacturer, back in 2008. It’s “strange,” noted the investments analyst Michael Dunne, because BYD is the fastest-growing automaker ever, and other car firms see it as “an existential threat.” But, said Dunne, there are concerns over its market dealings, uneven quality, and labor standards: “Perhaps Warren is just taking profits,” he mused, or maybe Buffett “senses something that everyone else is missing.” Coincidentally or not, analysts suggested that China’s car exports may have peaked, hit by trade barriers and bans in overseas markets.

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3

BOJ hikes rates

A chart comparing rates of inflation in Japan to the G7 and the rest of the world

Japan’s central bank raised rates as expected, but cast a hawkish inflation outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy, bolstering the country’s currency and stocks. The Bank of Japan projected prices to rise faster than previously expected both this year and next, a significant long-term shift in a country that for decades grappled with deflation and flat-to-moribund growth. The forecast prompted traders to bring forward expectations of subsequent rate increases, with ING saying one could come as soon as May, potentially putting Japanese interest rates at their highest level in nearly 30 years. Still, the bank noted, risks remain, including US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

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4

Trump pressures Fed

Donald Trump and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters

US President Donald Trump said he would “demand” policymakers cut interest rates, renewing pressure on the country’s central bank. Trump has long called for more power over monetary policy and is far from the first president to do so, but economists warned against politicization of rates: ABC News noted that President Richard Nixon’s demands for lower rates ahead of the 1972 general election are believed to have raised inflation. Trump’s nominee for treasury secretary backed the Fed’s independence in his confirmation hearing, but has previously floated the idea of a “shadow Fed chair” to undermine the power of the head of the central bank. The current Fed chair has so far resisted Trump’s pressure.

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5

Africa’s Davos challenge

A map showing African countries by debt as a share of GDP

The international development agenda — a hallmark of the World Economic Forum — largely faded from conversations this week in Davos, setting a new challenge for African policymakers. The gathering exhibited “low energy″ in discussions around development, Semafor’s Africa Editor Yinka Adegoke wrote, with the mainstay topics being replaced by conversations on the new administration in Washington, and the impact of artificial intelligence. However some experts believe the Trump presidency could unleash a wave of investment across the continent as the US vies with China and Russia for sway in Africa. “I’m sure that we will find great solutions,” South Africa’s president said in Davos. “President Trump is a great dealmaker and so am I.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. The next edition is out soon. →

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6

Extreme weather disrupts schooling

A chart ranking major cities by air pollution levels

More than 350 schools were closed in Bangkok because of air pollution. The Thai capital suffers regularly from smog, but this week’s conditions have been the worst since 2020: City authorities announced free public transport to reduce exhaust fumes and lessen the problem. Thai children are not alone in having their education hampered by environmental conditions — the United Nations said 242 million children’s schooling was disrupted by extreme weather events in 2024, including floods, cyclones, and most commonly heatwaves, with Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the Philippines the worst hit. Almost three-quarters of the children affected were in low- and middle-income countries.

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7

Sinaloa violence erupts

A chart showing the 10 most dangerous cities in the world

Thousands protested in the Mexican state of Sinaloa after the killing of two children. Despite the deployment of troops, authorities have been unable to quell months of violence stemming from cartels’ territorial battle. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is under pressure from Washington to restrain the cartels, with US President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs of as high as 25% on Mexican imports if it fails to stem the flow of drugs across the border. Meanwhile Sinaloans want life to return to normal after months of self-imposed curfews. “We’re tired, we want peace, we want tranquility, we don’t want to live in fear any longer,” a protester told Noroeste, a local newspaper.

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Mixed Signals

To really see where the media is heading, you need to follow the money. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, co-hosts Ben Smith and Max Tani bring on the CMO of Verizon and former Twitter CMO, Leslie Berland, to talk about how creators have changed marketing and what she thinks is coming next. They also dive into how social media has rewired the minds of those who built it and how advertisers stay relevant without crossing into cringe territory.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. →

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8

ChatGPT outage reveals its ubiquity

A response by ChatGPT on its website
Florence Lo/Illustration/Reuters

ChatGPT going offline for several hours on Thursday revealed the extent to which millions rely on the still-new technology. The chatbot is less than three years old, but more than 300 million people use it each week, according to its owner OpenAI. For many, especially programmers, it is central to their workflow: “ChatGPT is down and I’m coding right now,” one user posted, with a gif of someone crying. Some apps and sites are so widely used that they could be considered public infrastructure — one massive WhatsApp outage affected 2 billion users last April — but few have moved from novelty to vital tool as rapidly as LLM chatbots have.

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9

Everest climbing permit fee raised

Camp four in Mount Everest.
Bidhan Shrestha/Handout via Reuters

Nepal raised the price of a permit to climb Mount Everest from $11,000 to $15,000. It’s the first bump in a decade, but the world’s tallest mountain has become ever more popular: 2023 saw a record number of permits granted, and about 800 people reach the summit every year. On good days, there can be long waits at the peak, and the route is becoming littered with garbage, human waste, and — because Everest remains dangerous — bodies. Permits are a key revenue source for Nepal, and climbing groups hope the extra cash will be reinvested in cleaning campaigns and safety measures: The country has been criticized for inadequately maintaining the route, and 2023 saw deaths hit an all-time high.

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10

Norway soccer to scrap video referees

A referee going to the VAR.
Annegret Hilse/Reuters

Norwegian soccer teams voted to remove video assistance for referees, putting the country on course to be the first to abandon the technology. VAR has been used in European soccer for several years, but is controversial, not least because it can be several minutes between the ball hitting the net and a goal being confirmed or ruled out. Norwegian fans are particularly unhappy, and have protested against it by throwing fish cakes and champagne corks on the pitch, for reasons best known to themselves. Despite VAR’s unpopularity, it is unlikely that Europe’s bigger leagues follow Norway: When millions of dollars hang on a single result, as in the Premier League or Champions League, a referee’s wrong call could be expensive.

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Flagging
  • US President Donald Trump travels to North Carolina and California, both of which have recently been hit by disasters.
  • Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee to be defense secretary, is expected to narrowly be confirmed to the post after two Republican senators said they would vote against him.
  • German composer Hans Zimmer holds a live concert in Riyadh.
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Semafor Stat
$5,000

The resale price for an iPhone 11 with TikTok — which is no longer available on the US app store — already downloaded on it. Although the app is working again in the US following a short ban last weekend, both Apple and Google have removed it from their app stores, meaning all new downloads are paused. However, for some who used to make their living posting videos on the site, spending thousands of dollars on an old device is a reasonable investment. “This TikTok app is worth a lot, man,” a seller who was offered $5,700 for his phone told The New York Times.

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Semafor Recommends

The Bad Fire by Mogwai. The veteran Scottish post-rock outfit is still going strong after 30 years, and their 11th album maintains the exploratory nature of their earlier works, now counterbalanced by “a melodic finesse,” Pitchfork wrote. Their usual brand of “analog synthscapes, shoegazy pop songs, and ascendent post-rock epics” are all in place, but they “can still disarm you by opening up surprising new dimensions to their sound.” Buy The Bad Fire from Rough Trade.

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Semafor Spotlight
A graphic saying “A great read from Semafor Net Zero.”A depot used to store pipes for Transcanada Corp’s planned Keystone XL oil pipeline is seen in Gascoyne, North Dakota.
Terray Sylvester/Reuters

It may be more difficult than usual for the US Congress to pass legislation to streamline the process for building new energy infrastructure, a senior Democrat who has helped lead recent negotiations over the issue told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell.

President Donald Trump’s aim to speed up energy projects could collide with Democrats’ aversion to slashing environmental oversight, pushing a legislative deal “much further out,” a consultant and lobbyist said.

For more on how energy will change under Trump, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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