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In the Thursday edition of Semafor’s Davos Daily, a look at who isn’t here (senior African leaders),͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Davos
DAY 4
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January 18, 2024
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Davos

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Davos Today

  1. African Absence
  2. Agenda
  3. Wednesday’s quotes
  4. Speakers list
  5. Unconventional wisdom
  6. Sightings
  7. Talking AI

Welcome to day 4 of Davos

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Missing persons

The story of Africa at Davos this year is who didn’t come. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and Kenya’s President William Ruto pulled out at the last minute. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has an election coming in a few months, never signed up.

Tearing these men away from Bill Gates and Will.i.am are their difficult macroeconomic environments: Food inflation was 33.9% last month in Nigeria, which is probably why Vice President Kashim Shettima is in Switzerland instead. Kenya’s Ruto did UNGA and COP28 last year, but back home, Kenyans are frustrated with a sluggish economy and rising taxes. President Ramaphosa has been lurching from one state-owned enterprise crisis to the next.

It’s worth noting that two African presidents who don’t have to worry too much about their electorates are here, Ghana’s Nana Akufo Addo, who will end his last term in December, has been under fire for the mismanagement of the economy, and is probably relieved to get away. Rwanda President Paul Kagame is facing an election this year, but, well, he’ll win…by a lot.

One thing African delegates here would like is for the Forum to bring WEF Africa back. It’s easier to convene and you see way more of the people you need to see, and it also attracts the kinds of international delegates who care about the continent. It had successful runs in Cape Town and Kigali among others, but it got dropped post-pandemic. One insider told me they were optimistic WEF would return to Africa in the near future. We might hear of some developments in April, they said. Of course, this obviously all depends on money, I was told.

But then again, according to reporting by Ben and Liz, WEF has got plenty of money.

— Yinka Adegoke

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What’s on today

10 am: Israel’s President Isaac Herzog is speaking at the Congress Centre. Herzog is in Davos with family members of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in an effort to keep the pressure up for their return.

10:30 am: Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shyaa Al Sudani will be in conversation with John Harris, the founding editor of Politico, at the Congress Centre. Al Sudani came into power last year, but between Iranian missile strikes on Monday and the frequent exchanges of fire between U.S. forces stationed in Iraq and militia groups, his honeymoon period is definitely over.

11 am: If you missed Sam Altman in action yesterday, you have a new chance today when he will be in conversation with the CEOs of Salesforce, Pfizer, and Accenture, as well as UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hosted by Fareed Zakaria at the Congress Centre.

12 pm: Will the black hats win in the age of AI? Semafor’s Reed Albergotti moderates “Generative AI and Global Cybersecurity Resilience,” with the CEO of SecurityScorecard for a roundtable discussion at the Hard Rock Hotel.

3 pm: Hear from Kyriakos Mitsotakis, prime minister of Greece, which was recently anointed the top-performing economy of 2023 by The Economist, at the Congress Centre.

4:15 pm: Get the inside view on what a possible Republican administration might look like from Kevin Roberts, the head of The Heritage Foundation, which is leading a $22 million operation to train staffers for the next Republican administration. He will be in conversation with Walter Russell Mead, Gerard Baker, editor-at-large at The Wall Street Journal and others at the Congress Centre.

5 pm: Ukraine makes its case for what’s at stake in the war with Russia: “International World Order. Global Security. The Future of Democracy. European Independence. Rising Totalitarianism and Dictatorship. Cybersecurity and Hybrid Warfare…in short, the World as We Know It.” At Ukraine House.

10 pm: Don’t have evening plans firmed up? WSJ is hosting a nightcap at the Journal House, Belvédère Pavilion. First come, first served.

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What you may have missed

REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

“Long live freedom, dammit” — the concluding note of Argentinian President Javier Milei’s libertarian exhortation, in which he warned his audience to reject socialism or neoclassical economics in favor of “free enterprise capitalism,” and attacked social justice, “the bloody abortion agenda,” and “parasites who live off the state.”

Powerful tech companies are already pursuing profits with a reckless disregard for human rights, personal privacy, and social impact.” — U.N. Secretary General António Guterres

“I believe that someday, we will make something that qualifies as an AGI by whatever fuzzy definition we want. The world will have a two-week freak out. And then people will go on with their lives.” — OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

“What we’re seeing every single day in Gaza is gut wrenching. The suffering we’re seeing among innocent men, women, and children breaks my heart.” — U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken

“An end to the genocide in Gaza will lead to an end of military actions and crises in the region.” — Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian

“The big risk is that if money doesn’t come in from abroad things could spiral and the government might have to resort to the printing press.” — Beata Javorcik, chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, on the need for more Ukraine aid.

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Look who’s talking

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Biden vs. the Davos Consensus

The World Economic Forum in Davos is the world’s greatest machine for manufacturing conventional wisdom — and, notoriously, a place where the topline conventional wisdom is invariably wrong. As Liz Hoffman pointed out in this space last year, Davos missed the global recession in 2008, while both Trump and Brexit were absent from its 96-page Global Risk Report in 2016. The economic mood was giddy before the 2018 slowdown, and despite the fact that the COVID-19 epidemic had already started by the time of the 2020 Forum, “not only did the virus fail to prick the sterile gauze of optimism that surrounded Davos, it barely registered at all.”

This year, one thing is crystal clear in private and public conversations with the political and financial elites gathered on the mountaintop: Donald Trump will return to the White House. Joe Biden’s political skills are a laugh line, and the air toward the Trump restoration is more or less resignation. Even President Voldymyr Zelenskyy told a gathering of journalists (off-record, but we weren’t there) this week of his worries about the madness of domestic U.S. politics. To the former Trump aide turned Trump critic Anthony Scaramucci, the lesson is crystal clear. “There are three reasons Trump’s not going to be president, and the first is that everyone here thinks he’s going to be president again,” he said. Don’t worry about the other two.

— Ben Smith

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Seen and heard

It’s Sting: A (non-Steve Clemons, who knows but won’t tell us!) source gave away to us the name of the act at Salesforce’s impossible-to-get-into party tonight, which is somehow always Davos’s best kept secret.

Grounded: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was stuck here briefly when his Boeing 737 plane was deemed unsafe to fly due to an oxygen leak. Rather than traipsing up and down the Promenade with us, a smaller jet was flown over from Brussels to take him back to DC — but not the accompanying press corps and many of his aides, who had to find their own way home. Cue: Grouchy reporters, grouchy stories.

Speaking of media management: Axios’s Ryan Heath, whose story last year on succession at Davos infuriated WEF Chairman Klaus Schwab, was not issued a press credential this year. The snub may have been intended as a warning to others, but has predictably backfired and prompted new interest in the subject.

Unawkward: The Economist hosted Sam Altman and Satya Nadella for a discussion Wednesday afternoon and it was a hot ticket, with invitees being turned away after the room reached capacity. Some people (this reporter!) would have appreciated some awkward moments when the inevitable questions about the Altman firing came up. But, alas, those juicy questions never came up and Altman oddly played down his own tech, calling GPT-4’s capabilities “bad.” Some comfort to a Davos crowd that seems petrified of large language models.

Schwarzman on fire: Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman to a closed-door meeting of big investors and sovereign funds, where complaints about government policies — or lack thereof — ran thick: “Stop being professional victims. You can change things.”

In defense of concerts: DevEx’s Vince Chadwick pushed Bill Gates on whether corporations and governments really ought to count support for the aid-promoting Global Citizen extravaganzas. “I don’t mind applauding people for things they would have done anyway,” Gates replied. “The .001% we spend on Global Citizen you could say, ‘Go ahead and do the math.’ The key question is what ideas do you have about maintaining this aid.”

Reasons for being here: A prominent Silicon Valley VC, asked at the JPM party why he’s at Davos, replied that it’s the only place to build relationships with trad industry folks, which can come in handy when portfolio companies get to a certain size. Translation: when your investment is going south, find some big Davos-going company to acquire it.

Didn’t age well: The dumbest thing an ostensibly smart person told Vista founder Robert Smith about AI: “It’s nothing new.”

Bearish: We aren’t entirely sure why J.P. Morgan chose this particular beast to illustrate a set of thinkpieces distributed yesterday evening.

Welcome wagon: “We’ve missed Nigeria for many years. Welcome back, Nigeria!” said the WEF’s Klaus Schwab at the Nigeria party.

Spotted: Former U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan and JPMorgan’s Mary Erdoes at Teneo’s & Manchester United’s party at the Morosani.

Always innovating: The sitting prime minister of Belgium, Alexander de Croo, served as the judge at an Oxford-Union style debate hosted by The New York Times.

Russian retaliation: A cyberattack claimed by a pro-Russian hacker group disrupted a number of government websites in Switzerland on Wednesday, the Swiss government said. The Russian-linked group claimed the attacks were in retaliation for hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the WEF.

Still time: It’s not too late to convert to Raelism, according to a flyer being distributed on Scalettastrasse.

Overheard outside the Ameron: “You’re going to jail, not to prison. There’s a difference.”

Paltintir’s hostage event: Palantir Founder Alex Karp couldn’t believe that WEF hasn’t offered the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel the sort of solidarity it showed to Ukraine.

“In the world I live in — as important as climate is right now, this is the most important issue and everyone has to discuss it,” he said of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. “We must talk about this in every public forum.”

But since this wasn’t the view of WEF, which has provided a stage to varying views on the crisis from Israel’s President, as well as the Prime Minister of Qatar, Karp created his own space, hosting a packed house at Palantir’s Promenade pavilion for the Hostages and Missing Families Forum.

The audience included the exiled Belarusian leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Putin foe Bill Browder, and Anti-Defamation League chief Jonathan Greenblatt. Relatives of the hostages sat at the front of the stage holding hands, and while there was talk of peace and of geopolitics, the message of the event was, the entrepreneur Yossi Vardi said in closing, “It’s the hostages or nothing.”

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One good text

Neil Lawrence is the inaugural DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge.

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