On US-Africa Joey Pfeifer/Semafor Zainab Usman, director of the Africa Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC On trade there will be a lot of uncertainty around the future of the Africa Growth Opportunity Act and US-Africa trade relations in general. Even if AGOA gets reauthorized, will African countries be exempt from the wide-ranging tariffs that President Trump plans to impose on all imports into the US? I’m perhaps a bit more optimistic that the Lobito Corridor project’s bipartisan support could help ensure its survival. Its discontinuation, as the major flagship infrastructure project supported by the US in decades, would be damaging to US efforts to counter China in the infrastructure investment business in Africa and the Global South. On Trump 2.0 US President-elect Donald Trump; Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia CommonsCameron Hudson, analyst at the Center for Strategic and Intelligence Studies, Washington DC The areas that stand out for me will be where President Trump will look to make his mark in Africa in 2025 include Somaliland’s possible recognition: This will come with a movement of some US forces out of Djibouti and some aid suspension to Mogadishu. I also expect a standoff with South Africa. Pretoria is likely to be made an example of over its pro-China, pro-Russia, and anti-Israel positions. On China-Africa Xinhua/Zhai Jianlan via Benin PresidencyChristian Geraud Neema, Africa editor, China Global South Project I’ll be watching how China-Africa relations will evolve and shape under an openly anti-China Trump administration that will surely be open about countries picking sides. Many African countries have clearly refused to. I’ll also keep an eye on when the $1 billion Tazara rail project between Tanzania and Zambia is given a final agreement, it already has President Xi Jinping’s public backing. It’ll be important to see how the loans promised at the FOCAC conference in September will be delivered. China’s financing is evolving. On African techTomiwa Aladekomo, CEO Big Cabal Media, publisher TechCabal, Lagos The rollercoaster continues in 2025. Macro conditions across the continent will continue to be challenging and will mean that founders continue to navigate rough terrain. I’m greatly encouraged by the quality of founders leading new businesses across the continent these days.
Lots more experienced operators, who have spent five plus years at other high growth startups, stepping out to do their own thing. The companies they are forming are more robust from jump and their theses are better grounded in experience and deep understanding of the continent. On South Africa South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa; Reuters/Esa AlexanderLawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution The coalition government is essentially a forced marriage, albeit with 10 partners. The main couple, President Ramaphosa’s ANC and the Democratic Alliance, however appear committed to making it work. To do that they must learn to trust each other, agree on a set of common goals and aspirations, and find ways of mediating disputes and arguments. While the foundational “coalition agreement” sets some of this out, in the coming year they will have to agree on the details of how to achieve those goals, and demonstrate to South Africans that they will indeed put the interests of the country first. On Nigeria’s economy Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu; Reuters/Sarah MeyssonnierCheta Nwanze, founder of SBM Intelligence Despite OPEC’s quotas, President Tinubu’s government is aiming to produce two million barrels of crude oil per day at $75 each. I think they’ll be disappointed. I expect crude oil prices to range from $65 to $75 for most of the year, and the country to just about meet an average daily production of 1.8 million barrels, meaning there will be a shortfall in revenues which will worsen the fight over taxation. I expect the economy to grow by 3.5%, driven by services. I also expect inflation to remain high, around 28%, and the naira may depreciate to above $1 to ₦2000. That combination is likely to fuel social unrest. On Kenya Kenya’s President William Ruto/DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jack SandersKen Opalo, associate professor, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington DC President Ruto’s biggest achievements in his first two years in office have been avoiding a sovereign default and completely neutering the opposition as well as any institutional checks from the judiciary and parliament. In 2025 these successes may come to haunt him. Fiscal consolidation through high taxes and reduced spending continues to cause pain in the real economy. Unchecked power and his closed echo chamber are leading to a rapid deterioration in the quality of policymaking, as well as emerging autocratic tendencies like forced disappearances by alleged state agents. | 
