The News
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is prepared to meet US President-elect Donald Trump “whenever,” at an annual press conference Thursday.
While emphasizing Russia’s position of strength in Ukraine, Putin added that the Kremlin is ready for “negotiations and compromises,” but warned a temporary ceasefire would only provide Kyiv with a chance to regroup.
Sources close to the Kremlin believe Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine deal with Trump that would include a demand for Kyiv to give up on its NATO ambitions and to limit the size of its army, Reuters reported.
Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia is reportedly planning to visit Kyiv in January and has signalled openness to travelling to Moscow if invited as the incoming US administration seeks to end the war.
SIGNALS
Opinions divided over Trump-Putin relationship
Analysts and former officials have wildly different views on the relationship between Trump and Putin. Veteran journalist Bob Woodward reported that Trump’s former director of national intelligence said their relationship was “so close, it seems like it might be blackmail.” In contrast, some Republicans have pointed to Trump’s criticism of Russia’s Nordstream pipeline, his decision to arm Ukraine with anti-tank weapons, and clashes between US troops and Russian mercenaries in Syria as proof he is no friend to the Kremlin. While Trump’s second term posture remains unclear, he has told Ukrainian and French officials that he does not support Ukrainian NATO membership, but wants a strong Ukraine with European peacekeepers on the ground to emerge from negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Experts caution that any negotiations will face an uphill battle
Just a tiny fraction of modern wars have ended in negotiated settlements, and the opposing parties are unlikely to reach an agreement if one side believes they can win outright, two experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote. Putin seems to believe he can continue the war, outlasting the West and Ukraine, and could drag out any negotiations while making battlefield advances, they added. Some experts have called for tougher sanctions on Russia to strengthen Trump’s hand in future talks, while several incoming administration officials have floated threatening more aid to Kyiv unless Putin accepts a settlement.
Ukraine’s allies divided over push for peace talks
Ukraine’s allies are split over the potential for peace talks, with some openly welcoming the prospect while others stressing that such discussions are premature. “There is no point pushing Zelenskyy to talk when Putin doesn’t want to talk,” Kala Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, told the Financial Times. NATO boss Mark Rutte echoed the sentiment: “If we start to discuss among ourselves what a peace deal could look like, we make it so easy for the Russians.” The Netherlands, meanwhile, believes European countries should take the initiative to start negotiations, in part to out-flank the potential for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to work up a settlement without Europeans at the table, the Dutch defense minister told local newspaper Trouw.