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IEA raises prediction for global oil demand in 2026

Dec 15, 2025, 8:32am EST
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An Aramco oil field in Saudi Arabia. Hamad I Mohammed/Reuters.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its prediction for global oil demand growth in the year ahead, offering limited hope for Gulf producers dealing with weak prices. In its latest monthly report, the ⁠Paris-based agency predicted global supply would exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day (b/d) next year, down from its previous prediction of 4.1 million b/d.

A chart showing energy demand in 2024, 2025, and 2050 based on IEA data.

The agency pointed to an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook for the changing picture, as well as reduced crude flows from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. In its latest monthly report, OPEC continued to predict stronger growth in demand than the IEA. Kuwait’s Oil Minister Tareq Al-Roumi has called a recent slide to around $61 a barrel unexpected, while saying prices in a range of $60 to $68 per barrel were fair.

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