The News
As the news of Donald Trump’s return to the White House sinks in across the world, Russia has, so far, largely expressed muted caution. Even so, a handful of lawmakers and officials have tentatively raised the possibility of a thawing in Washington’s relationship with Moscow, and in turn, an end to the Ukraine war on Russia’s terms.
“We have repeatedly said that the US is able to contribute to the end of this conflict. This cannot be done overnight, but... the US is capable of changing the trajectory of its foreign policy. Will this happen, and if so, how... we will see after January,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said Wednesday after Trump was declared the victor in the election. Peskov caveated, however, that the US remains “an unfriendly country.”
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova was more celebratory: “Kamala Harris was right when she quoted Psalm 30:5: ‘Weeping may remain in the night, but joy comes in the morning,’” she wrote on Telegram. “Hallelujah, I would add for myself.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also weighed in, saying that Trump’s victory is “useful for us,” before stressing that an anti-Russia consensus persists in Washington. “As a businessman to the core, he hates spending money on… idiotic allies, stupid charity projects and voracious international organizations.”
SIGNALS
Experts warn Trump deal-making in Ukraine may not be favorable enough for Russia
Trump has repeatedly vowed to bring a swift end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, raising fears in Kyiv that he would do so only on terms favorable to Moscow — yet Russian experts have sounded a note of caution. “We are not talking about victory, but about freezing [the conflict]. For Russia, this is a negative scenario,” one Russian expert in the US said, adding that Washington could yet ramp up the pressure on Moscow. The former head of the OSCE observer mission in Russia was more blunt: ”We shouldn’t expect a miracle here,” he told Russian outlet TASS. “Many Republicans have a position opposite to Trump… They need to adapt to Trump’s policies, but there will probably be some resistance among Republicans.”
Russians wait to see what Trump’s stance on Middle East might reveal about Ukraine
Russia is watching to see how Trump will act in the Middle East as a bellwether for his potential actions in Ukraine, a source described as close to the Kremlin told independent Russian-language outlet Meduza: “If the Middle East takes precedence for the West, Ukraine will fall into greater dependence” on Europe. In a scenario where Trump prioritizes the conflict in the Middle East, the source continued, “the next move is ours: we could propose peace terms or successfully carry out a counteroffensive.” While some experts believe Trump would seek to drive a wedge between Moscow and its ally, Tehran, Russia is “entrenched in a relationship of mutual reliance with Iran,” making a split unlikely, a leading Russia-Iran expert wrote on X.