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Saudi Aramco reported a surprise increase in profits and boosted its forecasts for gas production as the kingdom embarked on a policy of lifting crude output to grab market share.
Adjusted net income for the third quarter was $28 billion, beating a company compiled analyst estimate of $26.5 billion and generating enough free cash flow to cover its huge dividend payments for the first time in several quarters. The payouts are critical to funding Saudi government spending, which underpins a multi-trillion-dollar plan to diversify the economy. Oil revenues comprised 56% of state income in the third quarter, the government said in October.
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Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners have been increasing oil output to meet customer demand. The effort has also helped keep energy prices lower for US consumers — a frequent concern of President Donald Trump — and allowed the group to capture a larger share of the global energy market. The International Energy Agency and other industry experts forecast a supply glut next year, which has been a drag on prices.
Aramco also lifted its forecasts for gas production, saying output would be 80% higher than 2021 levels by the end of the decade, up from an earlier plan of a 60% increase. The company is betting that global energy demand will continue rising and fossil fuels will remain dominant as consumption surges from AI data centers and electric vehicles.