The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecasts across the Gulf and now expects the Middle East and North Africa to be the only region in the world to shrink this year. In April, the fund still forecast Saudi Arabia and the UAE would grow.
Both will still do better than Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, whose emir said today that government revenue was down 42% in the first half of the year, because they can pipe crude around the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and Fujairah. The fund expects a strong rebound next year, but only if the strait gradually reopens from March, a date it has already pushed back. Oman, whose ports sit outside the strait, is the only Gulf economy still expected to grow in 2026, though its growth will roughly halve next year as Qatar and Kuwait rebound by more than 17%.
