The Scoop
The Democratic National Committee will spend another $1.5 million on New Jersey’s off-year gubernatorial race, upping its commitment in a state that Republicans believe is trending their way.
According to the DNC, the new money will be coordinated with the state Democratic Party and its organizing work, testing “new tactics and tools” and reaching “key constituencies that we lost ground with” last year.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher and we’re leaving nothing to chance to win up and down the ballot in New Jersey,” DNC chair Ken Martin told Semafor. “We’re already seeing vast erosion of Trump’s’ coalition in 2024, particularly among Latino voters and young voters in New Jersey and across the country.”
The new money from national Democrats brings the party’s contribution to New Jersey to $3 million, or twice as much as it has spent in Virginia. In that state’s off-year elections, federal worker layoffs have helped the party sharpen its economic message.
Democratic nominees have led in public polling in both states, but surveys missed a GOP surge in New Jersey’s 2021 elections. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill will face GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli in their first televised debate later this week.
Sherrill’s campaign declined to comment on the poll. Martin said that the party’s work in New Jersey would reveal how the country has turned on the GOP, after a run of Democratic overperformances in special elections.
“New Jerseyans know that Donald Trump sold them a bill of lies and has done nothing to make this state more affordable,” he said. “We’re going to make sure every New Jerseyan knows the stakes of this election and how electing Ciattarelli is exactly what Donald Trump wants.”
In this article:
The View From Republicans
Ciattarelli’s campaign and allies see the DNC investment as proof that Republicans have momentum.
“It’s more evidence that Mikie Sherrill is a terrible candidate who needs to get bailed out by national Democrats, and it’s not going to work,” said Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign strategist.
“There isn’t enough money in the world to hide Sherrill’s blatant attempt to gaslight voters into thinking she’s offering serious solutions to the problems facing New Jersey,” said Kollin Crompton, the rapid response director at the Republican Governors Association.
David’s view
National Democrats haven’t invested this heavily in a New Jersey gubernatorial election in a very long time. In 2017 and 2021, they counted on Gov. Phil Murphy, a wealthy Goldman Sachs alum, to outspend Republicans who did not think the state was winnable anyway.
Murphy beat Ciattarelli in that second race by just 3.2 points. In the four years since then, the Republican never stopped running. Donald Trump lost the state by single digits last year.
Meanwhile, Sherrill has stayed on the air with ads focused on lowering costs. The Republican Governors Association created a PAC to run anti-Sherrill ads, which exploit some tongue-tied moments the Democrat had during the crowded primary.
One PAC ad uses a clip of Sherrill talking about renewable energy that’s “gonna cost you an arm and a leg,” but leaves out the point of her observation: that cleaner power is now affordable. A new Ciattarelli ad uses a May interview where Sherill hemmed and hawed before naming the “one piece of legislation” she’d like to pass, a health care funding bill; the ad cuts off before she names the bill.
This is a far more aggressive strategy than what Republicans have tried in Virginia, where they’ve barely spent anything to help their nominee for governor. Sherrill and Democrats have outspent Republicans in New Jersey, barely, and have far more spending reserved for the fall.
Notable
In Politico, Madison Fernandez and Jessica Piper report on whether Democrats can motivate their diverse base, which came apart last year. “Ciattarelli is scrambling to win over Black and Hispanic voters who didn’t support him last time but did vote for Trump last year.”