The “region cannot remain in a state of neither war nor peace indefinitely,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, warned this week. But this limbo looks likely to persist. US President Donald Trump is taking a “low-key” approach to squeezing Iran economically, while his energy secretary says as many as 15 million per day of the prewar 20 million barrels of oil that passed through the Strait of Hormuz are making it to consumers. It’s clear that these flows are helping to keep prices below $100 a barrel despite nearly six months of disruption, but liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and other goods are still trapped in the Gulf.
Diplomatic efforts are being revived: Pakistan is pushing for a renewed 60-day pause under a new US-Iran framework. But, as Abu Dhabi newspaper The National argued, another ceasefire falls short of the Gulf’s need for a durable settlement protecting navigation through Hormuz and removing the “recurring threat of war.”
Washington is maintaining its war posture, as is Iran (see below). The Wall Street Journal reported that a fresh US aircraft carrier will relieve one that spent a record of more than 250 consecutive days at sea. The US secretary of war insisted the naval blockade of Iran can continue “indefinitely.”