As security deteriorates around the Gulf and prospects for a near-term peace deal recede, regional states are strengthening their defenses. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed a joint military agreement in Mecca today, creating an alliance that includes the second-largest NATO army, the world’s biggest oil exporter, and the only nuclear-armed Muslim state. The pact stipulates that an “armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.”
Iran, meanwhile, is seeking to formalize its control of the Strait of Hormuz. An emerging deal with Oman, according to Iranian press, would reportedly bar US and Israeli ships from entering the Gulf. Other proposals include the ability to block and fine vessels of all “hostile” nations, giving Tehran far greater control of the waterway than before the war.
Oil prices spiked and markets were broadly down on Friday as expectations for a full reopening of the strait looked increasingly uncertain.