OPEC cut its growth forecast for world oil demand this year by 20% — its third straight downward revision. The producer group still sees the Iran war denting consumption less than the International Energy Agency does, and raised its 2027 growth forecast by 12% to 1.94 million barrels per day on expectations of a stronger second half.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for much of the period since March, stripping millions of barrels from Middle East supply and making the OPEC+ quota increases agreed in April unachievable. Output is recovering — the group pumped 36.28 million barrels per day in June, roughly 3 million more than in May, as Gulf producers restarted halted fields. The UAE, which quit OPEC in May but will report production figures to the group for the rest of the year, is free of quotas and opened the spigots last month, boosting crude output by 80%.