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Gulf’s jitters as Trump weighs Iran strike

Mohammed Sergie
Mohammed Sergie
Editor, Semafor Gulf
Updated Jun 18, 2025, 8:07am EDT
gulfMiddle East
Smoke rises following what Iran says was an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot in Tehran.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
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US President Donald Trump is considering a strike on Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions and has called for “unconditional surrender” from Tehran.

Iran’s supreme leader said Wednesday the country will never surrender. Washington is positioning military assets as Trump grows increasingly supportive of Israel’s campaign following its early successes. Only the US possesses the bunker-busting munitions and aircraft capable of targeting Fordo and other deeply buried Iranian enrichment sites.

Regional leaders are, meanwhile, still pressing for de-escalation. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed spoke with Iran’s president to express solidarity, while the Emirati foreign minister urged the UN to broker a ceasefire.

A map of the Strait of Hormuz.
Peter Hermes Furian/Shutterstock
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The conflict remains contained for now, mainly affecting flight routes north of the Gulf and driving oil prices up about 11%.

But risks are edging closer to vital shipping lanes that carry much of the world’s energy. Freight rates for fuel shipments from the Gulf to Japan have nearly doubled, according to Bloomberg, while Qatar has asked liquefied natural gas vessels to loiter outside the Strait of Hormuz until ready to load, to reduce their exposure, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, two oil tankers collided in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday. The ship operators blamed it on a human error. Still, a maritime risk firm said navigational systems are being jammed in the region due to the war.

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