The value of Bahrain’s trade fell by 14.5% in the first quarter of the year because of the impact of the Iran war. The value of imports slumped 17% and non-oil exports fell by 10% — a combination leading to a perverse upside for the kingdom by lowering its trade deficit.
Bahrain has the region’s smallest economy, and the one most vulnerable to the conflict, with no easy trade routes that skirt the Strait of Hormuz. Oil exports account for half of government revenues in normal times, but they are now on hold. Aluminium Bahrain’s plant was hit by Iranian drones in March and has also found itself cut off from its usual supply and export routes.
On the plus side, it has supportive neighbors. The UAE opened a $5.4 billion currency swap line in April and S&P Global Ratings expects Bahrain will continue to benefit from support from its richer Gulf allies. Sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat booked record profits last year, in part because of the sale of its stake in F1 team McLaren Racing to a UAE fund.