In 12 hours, US President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran’s capitulation expires, and the region is bracing for what comes next. Trump on Monday threatened strikes that would cripple Iran’s infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, leaving damage that would “take them 100 years to rebuild.”
A diplomatic channel remains open through Pakistani mediators, but both sides are sticking to maximalist positions. Tehran insists on imposing a $2 million toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump mused that Washington should control the waterway and collect the levy itself.
The threats suggest the next phase of the war will focus on energy and civilian infrastructure. In reality, both have already been repeatedly targeted over the past six weeks. Iran has struck energy facilities, hotels, airports, and ports across the Gulf. Overnight, there were reports of fires at a Saudi petrochemicals complex, while Bahrain briefly closed the causeway to Saudi Arabia because of security threats.
The US and Israel have between them hit Iranian gas fields, a nuclear plant, and the country’s tallest bridge. With Israel warning Iranians not to take trains today, and Iranian officials urging its people to surround power plants as human shields, the next few hours may hold terrible tragedies. Trump’s deadline expires at 4 am Abu Dhabi time Wednesday.