View / What a month of war has taught us in the Gulf

It has been a month since Operation Epic Fury was launched, and while it remains uncertain how it will end, what is crystal clear is the new reality it has exposed about the Gulf, Iran, and the state of warfare today.

First, the predominant previous assessment of many pundits that Gulf states’ collective large investments in defense were prestige driven — as opposed to a necessity — has fallen flat on its face. We would have liked to spend even more on development, giga projects, and infrastructure but as the past month has proven, the Gulf is a gated garden surrounded by a wild jungle and for it to remain blossoming, there is no substitute to defense investment.

Indeed, thanks to missile-defense technologies and other systems, Gulf countries managed to intercept on average 95% of Iran’s ballistic missiles, 100% of its cruise missiles, and the vast majority of its Shahed drones. Yes, war is frightening, and images of fleeing expats and tourists are disturbing. But overall, fatalities and injuries have remained minimal and the destruction to civilian infrastructure has been barely noticeable.

Second, several of our vulnerabilities have been exposed. Most notably — like many others in the world — we need to be better equipped for the new realities of warfare.

This was eloquently captured by Fareed Zakaria who in a recent column said that while the 1991 Gulf War showed us that advanced (and expensive) technology offers precision, this war has shown us that precision can be mass produced. Missile defense interceptors — which can cost between $2 million and $4 million each — aren’t a cost-effective tool to shoot down a $20,000 Iranian drone.

While Gulf states have no shortage of resources, nor will any be spared, when it comes to defending our territories and those who live on them, it is time for us to think differently, and consider technologies offered by Ukraine and separate, AI-enabled offerings. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the kingdom yesterday may be an indicator of the accuracy of previous Ukrainian media reports that Riyadh is considering drone defense systems that are equally efficient in terms of interception, but are more cost-effective. The Saudi Defense signed a procurement agreement with Ukraine, but details about the deal are yet to be disclosed.

There are other vulnerabilities, too, such as our reliance on desalination. While the current conflict has taken energy markets hostage, I have no doubt that the next one will be about water and access to it: Countries would be well advised to look into contingency planning to ensure thirst is not used as a weapon.

Then you have the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has made its point that it can use the waterway as a chokehold against global energy markets. However, Saudi Arabia’s little known East-West Pipeline (established in 1981), which links production facilities in the kingdom’s east with ports on its western coast has proven to be a true lifeline not just for Saudi Arabia but the whole world, allowing nearly 70% of Saudi production to be shipped through the Red Sea instead of the Gulf. (Of course, this means that Red Sea security has become an even greater global priority; the world needs to listen to Riyadh on joint efforts for securing it, assist in a political solution in Yemen, and help defuse tensions in the Horn of Africa.)

Last, but certainly not least, is what we now understand about Iran. It might have previously declared Israel a small Satan, and the US the bigger Satan, but the numbers suggest that, for the regime, in reality the biggest Satan seems to be the Arab Gulf. Indeed, since the war broke out, Gulf states — some of whom have no US bases or who are friendly with Tehran — have witnessed indiscriminate Iranian attacks. In sum, the Gulf has suffered more than 4,000 attacks from Iran. By contrast, Israel has experienced 930.

Needless to say, these attacks targeting the Gulf Arab states constitute a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, directly threaten the lifeblood of the global economy, and international energy security. What is now evident is that the Iranian strategy is to survive by making this war as expensive as possible for everyone, whether involved or not.

What this war has proven is that Iran’s hatred is directed mostly towards its Arab neighbors as opposed to Israel. Among others, it has hit Oman, its historical friend in the Gulf and a country which until the final moments leading up to the war was trying to negotiate a deal with the US. It has betrayed the 2023 Beijing Declaration, which forbids it from acts of aggression towards Saudi Arabia, too. Tehran has shown that it is focused on remaining in 1979, and not progressing with us to 2030.

Expensive though this conflict may be for Iran, what is most costly from a long-term perspective is that Gulf nations are now clear-eyed: Any outcome which doesn’t leave Tehran — whether theocrats are in charge or not — toothless is a ticking time bomb.

Faisal J. Abbas is an award-winning journalist and Editor-in-Chief of Arab News.