Thousands of US marines are being deployed to the Middle East. While their mission hasn’t been disclosed, their ability to launch quick, small-scale operations is raising the profile of Gulf islands that could become central to the war in the weeks ahead.
Kharg, hundreds of kilometers north of the Strait of Hormuz, is Iran’s main crude export hub, typically handling about 90% of its crude shipments and benefiting from deep-water berths, large storage, and pipelines from onshore oilfields. As far back as 1988, Donald Trump, well before he was president, told The Guardian that the US should “take it” if American troops came under Iranian fire. Occupying the island may be technically feasible, though American troops would likely face artillery and drone attacks from Iran. And while Tehran would suffer a blow to crude flows, it has other export options. To seriously dent shipments, the US would have to hit multiple facilities at once, according to Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas.
At the mouth of Hormuz, three islands held by Iran since 1971 but claimed by the UAE — Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb — may be even more consequential and could be the key to ensuring the strait can be kept open in the future. “If external powers look for ways to reshape security in the Strait of Hormuz, these islands are an obvious focal point — with relatively limited diplomatic cost given the ambiguity around sovereignty,” writes H.A. Hellyer, a fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.