View / This is the moment for an ‘Arab NATO’

With Iran now threatening vital economic lifelines across the Gulf — including airports, energy infrastructure, and ports — the idea of collective defense is gaining ground. The notion isn’t new, but it has stalled for decades. The region could use that cooperation now.

Qatar’s former prime minister Hamad bin Jassim urged Gulf Arab states to invest in a military-industrial base as soon as possible. To do so, he said, would require Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to “put aside their differences” to protect their people. While that’s pretty rich coming from the country that launched Al Jazeera, he wasn’t wrong.

The concept of an “Arab NATO” tends to resurface during crises, but it has its peacetime backers too. Jordan’s King Abdullah II told me in a 2022 interview that he would be the first person to endorse such a plan. Nobody wants war, he said, and everyone wants prosperity. At the time, fellow Arab leaders sniffed, but today, with the enormous cost of regional chaos weighing directly on the Gulf, the king’s words are prescient.

Gulf states are bearing the cost of this war: The latest estimates put the losses at more than $40 billion. Goldman Sachs predicts double-digit GDP contractions for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE not far behind. And beyond the initial hit to tourism and trade, the cost of repelling the attacks is staggering. The UAE alone is spending billions on air defense.

Domestic concerns aren’t the only issue — Gulf governments have foreign obligations they can’t ignore. Countries like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria that depend on Gulf largesse could be left hanging. Who will make up for the shortfall in handouts? What country is prepared for an even further destabilized Middle East?

Unchecked for decades, Iran has wreaked havoc in the region. Now that Israel and the US have called them to account, the gaping holes in their strategy have left the Gulf exposed. Leaders in the region have long warned that escalation would not be contained, that the conflicts are intertwined and difficult to manage. Now it’s up to the Gulf to make sure they are ready for future Iranian aggression.

It won’t be easy. The GCC, formed in 1981, has struggled to reach consensus on pretty much anything, lagging behind on goals like a common currency and common market. Notably in 2011, the first deployment of the GCC’s Peninsula Shield Force to Bahrain, with Saudi and UAE forces entering the kingdom at the behest of the government, seemed to go off without a hitch. Despite that success, the creation of a more formalized Gulf Arab force has never materialized.

A defense alliance will be even harder than aligning on economics. Oman has close relations to Tehran, only two Gulf states recognize Israel, and competition between GCC members over supremacy on certain issues is fierce. But the reality of an unstable, violent enemy should help them overcome these obstacles, and the framework could be extended to Egypt, Jordan, and, in the future, Syria.

Consider recent history. I was in the room when GCC leaders met back in 2011 at the Manama Dialogue. Then US President Barack Obama had just dropped a bombshell, announcing the infamous “pivot to Asia.” Fresh off the back of his support for the ouster of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, the declaration that Washington’s future interests lay decidedly outside the Middle East left Gulf leaders stunned, upending decades of US policy toward partners and allies in the region and sowing seeds of distrust that reverberate today.

As US President Donald Trump continues to call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” the Gulf is taking the heat. They’re in the firing line and they know it. The question is whether this will galvanize these Arab brothers to cast aside differences and create a lasting alliance.

Hadley Gamble is the London-based chief international anchor at IMI, the Abu Dhabi media company behind The National and Sky News Arabia.