Semafor Signals
Supported by
Ex-Brazilian president Bolsonaro indicted for allegedly fabricating his vaccination data
Insights from Agência Brasil, Universo Online, and O Globo
The News
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been indicted for allegedly falsifying his own COVID-19 vaccination data, marking the first time he faces potential criminal charges since leaving office.
The embattled leader is accused of entering false information into country’s public health database to make it seem as though he, his 12-year-old daughter, and several others in his inner circle received the COVID-19 vaccine, according to police documents released by the country’s Supreme Court.
The changes to the database appear to have been made shortly before Bolsonaro traveled to the U.S. in December 2022, when he would have required a vaccination certificate to enter the country.
If convicted of falsifying the data, Bolsonaro could face up to 12 years in prison, the Associated Press reported.
Bolsonaro became a prominent global anti-vaccine figure and one of the few world leaders to publicly rally against quarantine health restrictions.
The former president on Tuesday confirmed with Reuters that he had not been vaccinated.
“It’s a selective investigation,” he told Reuters. “I’m calm, I don’t owe anything. The world knows that I didn’t take the vaccine.”
The former president faces numerous legal problems for his alleged role in casting doubt about the country’s electronic voting system shortly before the 2023 Brasilia uprising. The country’s top electoral court ruled him ineligible to run in the 2030 election.
Bolsonaro is also being investigated for reportedly trying to bring $3 million worth of jewelry into Brazil without declaring the items to customs agents.
SIGNALS
Thousands in Brazil remain skeptical of vaccines
Budget cuts in the health sector and the spread of misinformation during Bolsonaro’s term has caused vaccine rates to fall even after he left office, the country’s Ministry of Health warned in January. Bolsonaro’s reign was “marked by a clear trend of scientific denialism” that will have public health consequences for years to come, Health Minister Nísia Trindade said. The government under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now trying to encourage regular vaccine schedules through a social media campaign educating the public about the need for vaccines in preventing future pandemics, Agência Brasil reported.
US pressure was critical in preventing potential coup
Court documents released this week reveal that Bolsonaro reportedly urged top military officials to help overturn the election, but his efforts were stymied by divisions within the ranks. Pressure from the U.S. — through backchannels and Pentagon resources — was also “critical to preventing members of Brazil’s military from executing Bolsonaro’s plans for a coup,” experts told Foreign Policy, given that many were openly embracing his conspiracy theories of a stolen election. The U.S. sent semiconductors to ensure the working of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. The operation was “more daring than it appears in retrospect” given Washington’s history of meddling in Latin American affairs. Still — compared to the White House’s involvement in the Ukraine and Gaza wars — U.S. President Joe Biden’s protection of democracy in Brazil “remains a remarkable U.S. foreign-policy success,” political scientist Oliver Stuenkel wrote for Foreign Policy.
Bolsonaro retains massive support
“Brazil remains heavily divided” and supporting Bolsonaro is crucial for populist candidates to get elected, according to an editorial from Universo Online, a Brazilian news site. As prosecutors consider whether to arrest Bolsonaro, the editorial warned that detaining him would “generate a commotion among part of the electorate, influencing municipal elections” scheduled for this year. By attacking Bolsonaro and his base, President Inácio Lula da Silva is only fanning his predecessor’s popularity, columnist Merval Pereira wrote for O Globo newspaper. Lula’s focus on denouncing Bolsonaro’s politics rather than promoting new economic and social reforms, means he could become less palatable for voters “who don’t like Bolsonaro but reject [Lula’s Worker’s Party],” Pereira wrote.
