The war is climbing the escalation ladder. The killing of veteran Iranian politician Ali Larijani — seen by some as a potential, palatable negotiator — may have strengthened hardliners in Tehran (who were never weak or restrained to begin with). Attacks are intensifying across the region, including strikes on Gulf civilian and energy infrastructure, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to almost all traffic.
Tehran is showing it can inflict sustained pain. It has aimed at oil and gas fields in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeted ports and refineries across the Gulf, and attacked ships. Analysts say Iran still has room to escalate further, through drones that are difficult to intercept, fast and agile patrol boats, and cyberattacks.
Neither side wants to return to the prewar status quo. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, said Abu Dhabi could join a US-led effort to secure Hormuz. Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC’s CEO and UAE minister of industry and advanced technology, placed ballistic missiles and Tehran’s proxies among the threats that must be addressed in any “long-term political settlement” with Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported.