Jason’s view
Clarity has arrived in the Middle East. Illusions are collapsing. The events of the past several days have forced governments across the region to confront what many have long known but avoided stating publicly: The central destabilizing force and enduring threat to stability and prosperity in the region is the Iranian regime.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to confront Tehran was not reckless. It was strategic and grounded in reality. For decades, the regime has funded, armed and directed proxy militias across the Middle East. This is not rhetoric. It is a record written in American blood: Iranian-backed forces killed more than 600 American service members in Iraq, the 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 Americans, and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 US airmen.
The Iranian people have paid the highest price. Women imprisoned. Dissidents executed. An economy hollowed out by corruption. The regime survives by exporting crisis because stability and prosperity threaten its grip on power.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries understand this. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar are engaged in historic national transformations aimed at diversification, investment, and global integration. But such ambitions require security. Quietly but unmistakably, Gulf leaders know the threat to regional stability is not Israel, which has demonstrated resilience, innovation, and a willingness to build partnerships.
This is why the present moment is so consequential.
For the first time in decades, there is a convergence of strength in the Middle East: A US president willing to confront threats directly; an Israel capable of degrading proxy networks and striking hard at Iran’s military infrastructure; and Arab leaders who have built dynamic economies focused on modernization and long-term competitiveness.
Working together, they can isolate the Iranian regime diplomatically, dismantle much of its proxy infrastructure, severely degrade its military reach, and strip it of the intimidation it has used to dominate the region.
Containment is not enough. Deterrence must be unmistakably reestablished, and Iran’s ability to threaten, coerce, and destabilize its neighbors must be broken.
Consider what real success could look like.
A Lebanon no longer hostage to Hezbollah. A Syria rebuilding without foreign militias dictating its future. Palestinian leadership choosing development over endless conflict. Gulf economies attracting investment without the shadow of missile threats. An Israel no longer living under constant threat. And of course, an Iran whose citizens are no longer trapped by leaders who sacrifice national prosperity for ideology.
This may have seemed implausible weeks ago. Today it does not.
History does not offer unlimited opportunities. Windows open briefly and close quickly.
Gulf states are reshaping their economies with remarkable momentum. Israel has demonstrated resilience under sustained attack. The Iranian public has shown courage despite brutal repression. The US retains unmatched economic leverage and military power.
If these forces align, the region can pivot from proxy warfare to coordinated security and economic cooperation, replacing reactive crisis management with deliberate strategy.
Seizing this moment will require coordination and resolve. Leaders must accept short-term turbulence in pursuit of long-term stability.
The alternative is familiar and dangerous: ineffective deals, incremental escalation, and emboldened proxies. Continued instability will drain resources and stifle opportunity.
President Trump has forced open a strategic window that had long been sealed by hesitation and illusion. It will not remain open indefinitely. The region can step through it together, reshape its future, and alter the course of history.
Or it can hesitate and watch the window close. Perhaps for decades to come.
Jason D. Greenblatt was the White House Middle East envoy in the first Trump administration. He is the author of In the Path of Abraham: How Donald Trump Made Peace in the Middle East and founder of Abraham Venture LLC.
Notable
- “We knew Tehran like we know Jerusalem,” one Israeli intelligence official told the Financial Times in an account of how the plan unfolded to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at his closely guarded compound. Traffic cameras in the Iranian capital had been hacked for years, funneling crucial intel straight to Tel Aviv.
- Why US President Donald Trump decided to go to war and what the CIA and members of the administration were saying in the runup to Feb. 28 is explored in this deeply reported article by The New York Times.