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The US and Israeli strikes on Iran this morning mark the end of an era in which Gulf countries have long been shielded from direct confrontation with a major American adversary despite hosting US military bases.
Hours after the US and Israel began what President Donald Trump described as “major combat operations” aimed at toppling the Islamic Republic, Tehran launched missiles and drones targeting US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as civilian sites including the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai and Kuwait’s airport.
For more than a decade, Gulf capitals urged de-escalation, arguing diplomacy was the only path to prevent Iran from targeting the wealthy cities and advanced energy infrastructure the region has spent trillions of dollars building. Now, with every state except Oman — long a mediator and back channel to Tehran — struck, the question is how will they respond. Officially, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have condemned the attacks while reserving the right to retaliate.
The Gulf has more to lose economically than Iran, a dynamic that still points toward restraint. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha have become global hubs for aviation, logistics, tourism, tech, real estate, and finance. All these sectors are vulnerable to disruption and reputational damage. Flights operated by Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways were grounded, stranding tens of thousands of travelers and costing airlines millions. Travelers are already reconsidering flying through a region that can light up at any moment.
Saudi Arabia is earlier in its drive to diversify from oil but it’s investing heavily to transform the economy and create jobs for a young population. Even if Gulf countries retaliate, there aren’t a lot of targets they can hit in Iran that would deter the Islamic Republic’s leaders.
Iran’s calculations in striking the Gulf aren’t entirely clear. Some analysts see Tehran trying to inflict pain on Arab Gulf states to pressure Washington back to negotiations. Gulf governments have already declined to allow the US to launch attacks from their territory. But the strikes on Gulf capitals demonstrate that this neutrality offers little protection in a conflict that Trump framed as —and Tehran believes is — existential to the regime.
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Mohammed’s view
Trump explained the rationale for the war by laying out Iran’s decades-long violent track record. It’s an argument that resonates with many people in the region and around the world. The Iranian government supported forces that murdered hundreds of thousands of Syrians, assassinated a Lebanese prime minister, and shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in 2020 (and sent its Shahed drones to kill more Ukrainians). And today, its strike in Abu Dhabi killed a Pakistani national and has wounded many more.
The regime has its justifications and grievances, and it’s pointless to adjudicate the debate here. That this bloody day has come to the Gulf has long felt inevitable: The risk has been embedded in equity markets, and even sovereign wealth funds are, in a way, an insurance policy if the region faces prolonged conflict and devastation.
Most people I’ve spoken to are in shock, having never imagined the bubble of safety could actually be punctured. My colleague Kelsey Warner in Abu Dhabi said residents in her neighborhood are considering sheltering in parking garages, and beaches that were full on Saturday morning were deserted by the afternoon. “I’m haunted by a woman who was wandering the aisles of the grocery store with two limes, probably for the Coronas she had back home,” she told me. Others are still keeping their dinner plans as if it’s a normal day.
Authorities have urged calm and discouraged hoarding. Yet with flights grounded, supply chains are vulnerable. My supermarket still has imported peaches and nectarines from Argentina and Australia, but if this stretches into a long conflict it will test the resiliency of Gulf states that import most of their food.
As for what the next days bring, it’s hard to tell. Life will resume, and Iran doesn’t have the unlimited firepower that would overwhelm the Gulf. But a precedent has been set. With Trump’s goal of regime change and Tehran striking across the Gulf, this region is no longer a bystander.
Notable
- Gulf states’ strategy on Iran — focused on de-escalation and containing tensions — has hindered their ability to influence Tehran and shape the new security environment, Bader Al-Saif, assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, and Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil write for War on the Rocks.
- The Gulf is one of the world’s busiest air traffic corridors. On Saturday, it ground to a halt, stranding passengers in the region and rerouting hundreds of flights, Bloomberg reported.