Africa

1. IMF revises growth forecast
2. China-Africa trade up
3. Thiam disqualified from polls
4. Zelenskyy heads to S. Africa
5. US retains Africa bureau
6. African pope contenders
7. Nigeria’s e-payment boom
8. Kenyan electrification
9. Declining worker engagement

Why Nando’s collects South African art.

Hello! We’re in Washington, DC, this week with most of the Semafor team to welcome guests to the third edition of our World Economy Summit. It is our biggest to date, with an impressive line-up of government leaders and corporate chief executives sharing their thoughts on the only topic on everyone’s minds: The increasingly likely slowdown in the global economy as a consequence of a trade war started by the Trump administration.

For most African countries the immediate fallout over trade is less consequential than the aftermath, as the commodities prices that underpin their economies take a hit due to a dropoff in demand.

But it might not be that simple. That’s why I’m talking on-stage today with Kenya’s Treasury Secretary John Mbadi and DR Congo’s Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba Likunde about how their respective economies are resetting for an increasingly uncertain environment. Alexis will be speaking with James Mwangi, CEO of Equity Holdings, East Africa’s largest banking group, and Leslie Maasdorp, CEO of UK development finance body, BII.

Even if you can’t be here this year, we encourage you to register for a virtual pass and join us online.

IMF forecasts slower Africa growth

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow to 3.8% in 2025 from 4% last year, the International Monetary Fund said, while projecting growth would rebound to 4.2% next year.

Forecasts for global growth have been lowered since January, reflecting new US tariff rates and a highly unpredictable trading environment.

Senegal, Ethiopia, and Côte d’Ivoire are projected to post the highest growth figures on the continent this year. Africa’s oil exporters, meanwhile, will average at 2.7%, with Nigeria at the top end at 3%. Equatorial Guinea’s economy is expected to contract by 4.2%. The IMF revised down Nigeria’s projected growth by 0.2 percentage points due to lower oil prices driven by downbeat demand projections because of the forecast slowdown. South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy, is predicted to grow by 1% this year.

Political unrest and conflict remain a “pronounced” risk to these growth projections, the IMF said. It noted that “rising food and energy prices have had a severe impact on vulnerable nations with limited fiscal space.”

— Alexander Onukwue

China-Africa trade grows

The size of China’s exports to Africa in the first three months of 2025 — an 11% increase year-on-year. Africa’s exports to China, on the other hand, fell by 9% to about $27 billion, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

Chinese state media highlighted the country’s rising trade with Nairobi in particular as Kenyan President William Ruto arrived in Beijing for a state visit on Tuesday, the first by an African leader since US President Donald Trump unveiled his new global tariff regime. Sino-Kenyan trade reached a record of $2.24 billion in the first quarter of this year, with both imports from and exports to Kenya rising at double digit rates year-on-year.

Writing on X after a public lecture at Peking University, Ruto said he pressed for the “urgent need to fashion a new world order” in light of the ongoing trade wars. The global financial system that arose post-World War II has “largely benefited the Global North at the expense of the Global South,” he said.

Thiam disqualified from polls

Côte d’Ivoire’s main opposition leader Tidjane Thiam has been removed from the country’s electoral roll, effectively barring him from running for the presidency. A court ruled that the ex-Credit Suisse CEO gave up his Côte d’Ivoire nationality when he acquired French citizenship in 1987 — despite the 62-year-old renouncing his French passport earlier this year.

Thiam, who was confirmed as a presidential candidate for October’s elections last week, said the court’s decision was an “act of democratic vandalism, which will disenfranchise millions of voters.” He has vowed to fight the decision. Thiam was widely viewed as the main challenger to President Alassane Ouattara, 83, who is expected to run for a fourth term. In an interview with AFP, Thiam said his party did not plan to replace him as their candidate and would take his case to the court of the West African regional bloc Ecowas. “It’s me or no one,” he said.

Introducing The Semafor View — our annual guide helping business leaders make sense of this moment. This year’s edition brings together bold provocations from world-class thinkers on the forces reshaping business, policy, and the global economy. From AI disruption to geopolitical realignment, The Semafor View is a must-read for leaders navigating today’s fractured world.

Get access to The Semafor View here.

Zelenskyy’s closely watched S. Africa trip

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to visit South Africa on Thursday for talks with President Cyril Ramaphosa about moves to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The trip “would have been unthinkable” until recently, wrote South African journalist Peter Fabricus for the Daily Maverick, pointing to Pretoria’s close ties with Moscow.

South Africa has publicly sought to maintain a neutral stance on the conflict. It abstained from several UN General Assembly votes on resolutions condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and in 2023 Ramaphosa led an African peace mission to Kyiv and Moscow. “But history has moved on,” said Fabricus, pointing out that South Africa now finds itself “closer” to Zelenskyy than the US. Last week Washington put forward a proposal for Ukraine to recognize Russia’s control of Crimea as part of a ceasefire agreement, a move Zelenskyy has firmly rejected.

US State Department retains Africa bureau

The US State Department is preserving its Africa bureau despite reports that it could be winding down much of its diplomatic work on the continent. While a draft executive order that circulated in Washington’s diplomatic circles this weekend would have shut down the department’s African Affairs bureau and many African embassies, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s sweeping reorganization on Tuesday has left the US’ regional expertise intact while eliminating some human rights offices. Even so, embassies and consulates on the continent could still be under threat: Six African embassies were on the chopping block in a separate leaked memo, and the Trump administration remains committed to reducing America’s diplomatic footprint overseas.

Some US officials are quietly grumbling that the lack of an assistant secretary for Africa is limiting Washington’s engagement on the continent. But Washington is notoriously slow to put officials into their posts after a change in administration, with Biden’s top Africa official only arriving in the autumn of 2021.

— Mathias Hammer

Will the next pope be African?

Three African cardinals are among the potential contenders to become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church after the death of Pope Francis. Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, DR Congo’s Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, and Côte d’Ivoire’s Cardinal Ignace Bessi Dogbo have all been tipped as possible pontiffs. Many Catholics on the continent — where the Roman Catholic church is growing the fastest — are rooting for the first Black pope in modern history. But Vatican insiders are sceptical that any of the names being floated have a shot at the top job, Reuters reported, “partly because none have been subjected to the same level of public scrutiny as most Western cardinals.”

Nigeria’s e-payment boom

Commercial banks in Nigeria are cashing in on the growing wave of digital banking. The five largest banks in the country by assets saw revenues from their electronic banking services grow by 51% year-on-year to $391 million in 2024, a BusinessDay review of earnings reports showed.

Thanks to Nigeria’s expanding internet access covering about 45% of the population, banking has steadily moved out of buildings onto smartphones. Decade-old banks have faced competition for years from new digital-only players offering banking at near-zero fees. Some of the challengers — like China’s OPay and Palmpay, as well as Nigeria-born Moniepoint — have proven themselves and are becoming part of the retail banking mainstream.

Kenya closer to full electrification

Kenya is on track to achieve full electricity access by 2030, thanks to the successful implementation of an electrification roadmap and the country’s rapid adoption of solar technologies. Where only 37% of Kenyans had access to electricity in 2013, the coverage in 2023 rose to 79%, a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed.

Kenya accounted for nearly three-quarters of all solar home system sales in East Africa in 2023, with one in five households using a solar-based electricity source, the review said. The progress in electrification was complemented by the increased adoption of clean cooking systems over the decade, with 30% of the population having access to non-polluting cooking fuels in 2023, up from 10% in 2013, the IEA said.

Declining worker engagement in S. Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the highest regional share of employees who said they are watching for, or actively seeking, a new job, according to a new Gallup poll. The annual survey on the state of the global workplace seeks to understand how employees feel about their work. South Africa experienced one of the largest decreases in employee engagement, falling six percentage points in the latest three-year rolling average. Africa also registered the highest regional share of employees experiencing daily loneliness.

Business & Macro

🇿🇦 South Africa’s headline inflation rate was 2.7% in March, the first decrease recorded in five months and the lowest level since June 2020.

🇰🇪 The Central Bank of Kenya is looking to raise $618 million from three bond auctions to fund government spending.

Climate & Energy

🌍 Six Central African countries expecting a foreign exchange windfall from environmental restoration funds set aside by oil firms may receive only $500 million due to disagreements between the firms and the regional central bank.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇸🇩 Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held talks with the country’s Turkish ambassador to discuss planned development projects from Ankara, aid, and the resumption of airline services.

🌍 Leaders of the West African economic bloc Ecowas are set to meet in Ghana to discuss the implications of the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the organization.

Tech & Deals

🇸🇳 Amazon Web Services launched its first Wavelength Zone location in sub-Saharan Africa in Senegal in partnership with Orange affiliate Sonatel. The service promises quicker response time for mobile apps.

🇿🇦 The International Finance Corporation provided a $58 million loan to South African property developer Balwin to build 16,000 housing units in Mooikloof City, a new development 40km from Johannesburg.

The South Africa-born restaurant chain Nando’s has amassed around 32,000 artworks from local artists since 2004 to display on the walls of its eateries. It has become “one of the country’s most significant supporters of visual artists,” reported The Guardian. Nando’s, founded in Johannesburg in 1987, now has some 1,200 peri-peri chicken restaurants in around 20 countries. Artworks have to be family-friendly, measure around 1 metre by 1.5 metres, and not be behind glass, the chief curator who sources the art told the outlet. The company buys around 2,000 works a year from 280 different artists.

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— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.