Net Zero

1. Trump’s Europe LNG problem
2. Renewables grow, but slowly
3. Oil glut tightens
4. Wildfire insurance bailout
5. Tariffs won’t help green steel

What it takes to be a good climate tech CEO these days.

Trump-EU tariff spat could put methane on the negotiating table

As the European Union braces to be the next target of US tariffs, President Donald Trump has offered an easy way out: Buy more American fossil fuels.

“The one thing they can do quickly is buy our oil and gas,” Trump said shortly after his inauguration. But that plan faces an obstacle that energy companies and officials on both sides of the Atlantic are now scrambling to navigate: An impending EU policy that requires gas exporters to lower their methane emissions, or face fees. The methane rule is designed to force global gas producers who want access to the lucrative EU market to crack down on a potent greenhouse gas — a policy at odds with the Trump administration’s planned roll back of domestic emissions regulations.

The EU rules could keep the pressure on US gas companies. But some industry analysts also worry the rules are at risk of being watered down.

Trump is used to leveraging liquified natural gas exports as a cudgel in foreign policy and trade negotiations: Ukraine, India, Japan, and Taiwan are among the countries committing to buy more US LNG in the hope of staying on Trump’s good side. In Europe, where gas prices are the highest they’ve been in years and Russian pipelines seem unlikely to reopen anytime soon, greater imports from the US are likely no matter what Trump does. The question is what emissions standard those imports will be held to — and how European leaders will balance the trade-offs between placating Trump, keeping energy affordable, and fighting climate change.

Renewables grow, but slowly

Prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity grew by more than 20% in 2024, according to a Global Energy Monitor report. That’s roughly equivalent to adding electricity from 400 large coal plants, but only half of what is needed to deliver on the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.

The world’s richest countries — which together account for about 45% of global GDP — host just one-tenth of all utility-scale solar and wind projects currently under construction, a contribution dwarfed by that of China, researchers warned. The mismatch is a problem from an environmental justice and energy democratization perspective, Diren Kocakusak, a research analyst at GEM told Semafor. The findings raise questions about how financial resources can be better directed to support the renewable energy ambitions of developing countries, he added. However, G7 countries are significantly more likely to finish projects on time, with about 76% becoming operational to schedule compared to 55% in China and 52% across the rest of the world, the report also found.

Meanwhile, market intelligence firm Cleanview forecasts US clean energy growth to be slower in 2025, following a record-breaking year of renewable and storage capacity additions. 95% of electricity capacity added in the US last year was from carbon-free sources, the report found.

Oil glut tightens

Global oil markets are looking slightly more bullish, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA’s latest 2025 forecast shows that the global supply glut is slimming, in large part thanks to efforts by OPEC to police overproduction among its members. That could cause gasoline prices to rise, but it’s still good news for US President Donald Trump, who could see a more favorable price environment to support American drilling. The US Department of Energy already bumped up its forecast for drilling this year. The big variable, however, is China, where gasoline consumption has likely peaked. The escalating global trade war could also cut into China’s demand for petrochemicals.

Wildfire insurance bailout

Additional funding required by California’s “last resort” insurance plan to pay out claims from the recent Los Angeles wildfires. The plan has already paid out more than $900 million to policyholders affected by the fires, and is now effectively broke. In order to continue paying claims, the plan needs to raise an additional $1 billion, officials said, which will come out of the pockets of private insurers operating in the state and, ultimately, their clients. The bailout, the first one the plan has needed in 30 years, is the largest in its history, a sign of how destabilized California’s housing market has become because of climate change.

Tariffs won’t help green steel

The tariffs that Trump said he plans to slap on steel imports will likely drive up emissions from the global steel industry and do little to support cleaner manufacturing in the US, industry experts told Semafor.

The US will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports, Trump said this week, which will hit top exporters like Canada, Brazil, and Mexico hardest. Some steel exporters, especially in Asia, rely on technology that is more carbon-intensive than what’s commonly used in the US, so the tariffs could drive down steel-related emissions in the US, said Caroline Ashley, director of the advocacy group SteelWatch. But that benefit could be offset by rising emissions from steelmaking in those countries, she said; to counter the effect of US tariffs, government subsidies “will now be directed to propping up steelmaking short term rather than decarbonising it for the long-term,” she said.

Within the US, the tariffs won’t do much to change the economics of scaling up the production of low-carbon steel, much of which is being snapped up by automakers, said Tim Hill, commercial general manager of Nucor, the top US steel producer.

“Tariffs alone are unlikely to spur investment in clean steel in the US,” said Hilary Lewis, steel director at the advocacy group Industrious Labs. “We need the government to support direct investment in aging, outdated facilities to help them modernize. If we do that, the US could have a globally leading, clean iron and steel fleet with a competitive edge.”

New Energy

• Lawmakers in Ukraine approved a contentious plan to purchase two Russia-made nuclear reactors from Bulgaria, an expensive solution to the country’s energy crisis that some watchdogs fear could create opportunities for corruption.
• The US Loan Programs Office approved a $1.7 billion loan guarantee for a sustainable aviation fuel refinery in Montana, a sign that the LPO won’t completely shutter under Trump as some clean energy advocates have feared.
• The clean hydrogen investment firm Hy24 made its first investment in the US. “There’s no denying that right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the market” because of the Trump administration, Alejandro Perellón, the firm’s head of Americas, told Semafor. “But we still think that the US is uniquely positioned to build these types of [low-carbon fuel] projects.”

Fossil Fuels

• Construction of coal power plants in China reached its highest level in a decade.
• Shell ignored whistleblower warnings that its oil spill cleanup operations in Nigeria were ineffective and corrupt, the BBC reported.
• India has taken advantage of Western oil sanctions on Russia to soak up a lot of cheap oil, and is now working to bolster its Russian supply chain.
• Chevron will cut up to one-fifth of its global workforce by next year, aiming to improve productivity with technology and by selling assets.

Finance

• China is poised to issue its first sovereign green bond, in a bid to take over from the US as a top destination for sustainable investing.
• The Trump administration won’t defend Biden-era rules for corporate climate disclosures in court, the acting head of the Securities and Exchange Commission said.
• The Trump-induced flight by some investors away from wind and solar is an opportunity to snap up a mountain of clean energy bargains, the massive infrastructure investor Brookfield said.

Tech

• Researchers proposed a simple solution to the data center energy crunch: Just turn the centers off sometimes.

Minerals & Mining

• On a visit to Kyiv this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal to open Ukraine for US investment in critical minerals would provide the country with a “security shield.”

EVs

• Annual EV sales in China grew 10.5% last year to make up 41.2% of total sales. Globally, EV sales in January were up 18% over the same month last year.
• Cutting EV subsidies would lead to sweeping layoffs among US automakers, Ford CEO Jim Farley warned, an uncommon rebuke of the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans from one of the country’s leading manufacturers.

Personnel

• Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates used to be outspoken climate advocates. Since Trump took office, they’ve gone quiet.
• Trump nominated oil lobbyist Kathleen Sgamma to lead the Bureau of Land Management, where her duties will include balancing conservation and drilling on public land.

Scott Jacobs, CEO and co-founder of Generate Capital

In his first weeks in office, Donald Trump has flooded the zone with executive orders, impromptu press conferences, and boundaries-testing moves to slash government — a strategy that Steve Bannon articulated during Trump’s first term.

Bannon spoke to Semafor’s Ben Smith about why he thinks the strategy — which he’s calling Trump’s “Days of Thunder” — is working brilliantly this time around. “The media is a complete total meltdown,” he said.