Two years into his tenure, Kenyan President William Ruto finds himself facing protracted street protests and calls to step down. The government’s heavy-handed reaction to the demonstrations have left at least 90 people dead over the last two years. As a result, Ruto’s approval rating is currently under water.
The president’s sense of political vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that he felt the need to invite opposition leader Raila Odinga’s party members to join his administration in an effort to stanch the loss of government legitimacy. Four of Odinga’s allies have since joined the cabinet.
However, Odinga’s inclusion in the “broad-based government” has failed to defuse the protests. Instead, Odinga has seen his credibility suffer in the eyes of the young people leading the protests. Many now derisively refer to the administration as a “bread-based government,” a reference to the idea that Odinga was bought off to betray the protest movement.
The rallies are borne of a deep dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, the deteriorating quality of public services, the administration’s overzealous approach to taxation, and police brutality. Real incomes in Kenya have stagnated for the better part of a decade. Many households feel the burden of depleted public services — from schools and hospitals to law enforcement. While many of these problems preceded Ruto’s ascent to power, the general sentiment is that he has done little to improve the situation. Instead, the common perception is that things have become worse under his watch. This is not what Ruto promised during the 2022 campaign.
The problem for Ruto (and Kenya) is that the economy is faring just well-enough to obviate the need for a sober look at the root causes of the protests and general public disgruntlement. Growth in 2025 is expected to top 5%. The annualized inflation rate is at under 4%, in no small part because of a decline in food inflation. The shilling remains stable under the dollar. And above all, the country has so far managed to avoid debt default. Because of these figures, the Ruto administration has struggled to see the protests as a genuine critique of the failure to translate growth into broad-based development.
Overall, this state of affairs means that the government will very likely struggle to maintain focus on disciplined policy implementation between now and the next presidential election in 2027. Importantly, Kenya’s effort at fiscal consolidation to reduce deficits and debt levels will become a casualty to the need for bigger budgets to placate both elites and voters. Heightened political tensions will also likely depress investor appetite. Amid all this, it is worth remembering that the backlash against Ruto’s administration is partially due to the fact that many Kenyans believed him when he promised in 2022 to be a transformative president.
Ken Opalo is an associate professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the think tank New America.