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In this edition: Strange new respect for Donald Trump, new GOP ads that go after campus protests, an͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 3, 2024
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Americana

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David Weigel

What Tulsi Gabbard’s journey says about Democrats’ fringe voter problem

Alex Wong/Getty Images

THE SCENE

The first time Donald Trump captured the Republican presidential nomination, Tulsi Gabbard and the Libertarian Party agreed: He had to lose.

Gabbard, then a second-term Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii, campaigned for Bernie Sanders until Hillary Clinton beat him; after that, she was reluctantly With Her. Libertarians nominated a ticket of two ex-Republicans, one of them who spent the campaign’s final week “vouching for Hillary Clinton.”

That won’t happen again. The LP, run since 2022 by the right-leaning Mises Caucus, announced on Wednesday that Trump would address its national nominating convention in D.C, an act of solidarity with a candidate who the deep state hates. Gabbard released “For Love of Country,” a plea for Americans to join her and quit the “Democrat Party,” which, among other sins, libeled and mistreated the Republican nominee.

“Voters saw through the lies about candidate Trump and elected him president in 2016,” Gabbard writes, “despite the Washington establishment’s efforts to destroy him in order to get the queen of warmongers, Hillary Clinton, into the White House.”

The ruptures in Joe Biden’s 2020 coalition — lagging Black support, protests over Israel’s war in Gaza — have given Trump the best start to a general election in any of his presidential campaigns. All year, he’s benefited from voter nostalgia about the pre-COVID economy, and Republican anger at the “lawfare” waged against him in courts.

Gabbard and the Libertarians are highlighting another Trump advantage — the migration of disgruntled, anti-establishment voters who don’t trust mainstream news outlets and don’t fit comfortably on the ideological spectrum. And while it’s difficult to tell how many votes they actually command, they’ve developed a thriving ecosystem to get their message out to like-minded individuals at the fringes of party politics — one that Trump’s orbit is very attuned to.

“If Libertarians join me and the Republican Party, where we have many Libertarian views, the election won’t even be close,” Trump told Semafor in a statement on Wednesday. On Thursday, after Trump delivered pizzas to a New York City Fire Department, Gabbard told Fox News that the GOP nominee was “with the people,” battling “weaponized” federal agencies that Democrats were using to hurt him.

DAVID’S VIEW

Outside of Fox News, where Gabbard has been a paid contributor, her memoir has been pretty well ignored by mainstream media. Her evolution from conservative to progressive to conservative again was covered closely and skeptically; by the end of 2022, when she quit the Democratic Party and spoke at a Nashville rally to ban gender-affirming care for minors, Democrats clocked her as an opportunist with changeable beliefs.

Still, Gabbard is the most prominent figure in a Bernie 2016 diaspora with plenty of social media influence. The campaign to beat Hillary Clinton brought together some people whose issues — shrinking America’s foreign military footprint, freeing Julian Assange, demolishing neoliberalism — weren’t going to flourish in the Democratic Party. And while Sanders has continued to urge votes disaffected by the Biden administration to stay inside the Democratic tent to hold off Trump, many of these figures are happier setting fire to it. Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and aggressive pro-labor and pro-industry policies haven’t changed that.

That includes Nick Brana, a 2016 Sanders delegate-hunter now working to get ballot access for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; Jimmy Dore, a YouTuber with 1.3 million subscribers who went from spitting at Alex Jones to hosting him; and Jackson Hinkle, a pro-Russia and anti-Israel Gen Z influencer with 2.6 million followers on X. American support for Ukraine, which moved Gabbard to leave her old party for good, wasn’t an issue in 2016. It’s a unifying post-left issue now, making Biden’s defeat not just desirable but necessary for human survival, they argue, echoing Trump’s campaign trail boasts that he will stop “World War III.”

These ideas haven’t mattered much in state and congressional elections, where Democrats have done well since 2016. Gabbard campaigned for Republicans in some of those races, but her focus is national. She’s said she’d be “honored” to serve as Trump’s vice president, after “respectfully” declining an offer to run with Kennedy.

In “For Love of Country,” Gabbard doesn’t explicitly endorse Trump. She explains why he has to win. Democrats are “so terrified of our having the freedom to choose our next president — especially one who would have the courage to hold them accountable for their crimes — that they are willing to completely undermine our democracy.” Like Kennedy, and like the Libertarian Party, she characterizes Trump’s legal problems as maneuvers by Democrats to destroy their enemy.

“Look at President Trump, who’s facing over 300 years in prison because of Espionage Act charges, and the double standard that’s there,” Gabbard told PragerU in a promotional interview for the book. “Look at President Biden and Hillary Clinton, all these other people who have done the very same things that he is being accused of.”

A reader of her memoir, and a close listener to her media tour, might be perplexed about why Gabbard ever joined the Democrats. “It seemed to be an inclusive party that understood and appreciated the importance of upholding religious liberty, free expression, and welcoming people of different religions, beliefs, and views,” she writes, before recapping her father’s 2004 campaign for Congress as a Republican. She was outraged when Ed Case, the Democrat who easily beat Mike Gabbard, posed “offensive questions about his religion, beliefs, and practices.” She doesn’t say what those questions were; her father was the leader of the state’s campaign against same-sex marriage, opposed by what Gabbard, at the time, called “homosexual extremist supporters of Ed Case.”

That early positioning didn’t slow her rise to Congress, where D.C. Democrats were so impressed by her military service, youth, and charisma that they made her vice chair of the party. Gabbard used that prominence to oppose military strikes on Syria; in early 2016, she quit the DNC to endorse Sanders, campaigning with him in primary states and nominating him at the national convention. But in “For Love of Country,” Gabbard doesn’t mention the 2016 Sanders campaign at all, and in her media tour, she’s described her elevation by the party as a cynical move by elites who wanted to control her.

“All of these things very much fit the mold and the talking point of identity politics,” Gabbard told PragerU. “Alright: We’re gonna dangle all the trinkets in front of her and show her what this world could look like, if she wants to be a part of the team.”

To Democrats, the debate about Gabbard — whether she was an interloper, or the future of the progressive rebirth that began in 2016 — was settled in 2020. She sees it differently, arguing she ran a presidential campaign that, in her view, was undermined at key moments by lies and censors. Her campaign’s Google Ads buy gets suspended during the first primary debate; not a “mere coincidence,” but a sign that the company “interfered with our efforts to reach voters” (Google and a federal judge disagreed). Gabbard encounters a South Carolina Democrat who wonders if she’s “in league with Putin,” and “almost had tears in her eyes” when the candidate says that she loves America so much she enlisted to defend it.

By the time she leaves Congress, introducing a doomed message bill to “protect women’s sports,” Gabbard has nothing good to say about her party. She’s not entirely on the anti-war left, telling Fox that the protests breaking out on university quads are essentially “pro-Hamas.” She’s joined the ragtag coalition of free-thinkers who wish that Democrats were a little less paranoid and evil; they could have gone that way in 2016, but because they didn’t, they have to root for Trump.

“I’ve known many strong, tough people in my life, but I can’t think of a single one who could not only withstand these pressures without crumbling, but actually choose to keep fighting against the entire Washington establishment swamp,” Gabbard writes. “Do you think Joe Biden could handle this? I know Joe Biden and used to consider him a friend. He would crumble under just 5 percent of the pressure, stress, and attacks that Trump has endured.”

THE VIEW FROM THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY

The LP’s decision to host Trump got enough blowback that the party’s national chair, Angela McArdle, recorded a video to explain and defend it. Not only would Trump bring attention to the party, and not only could Libertarians pressure him — it was selling “Free Assange” shirts with a Trump icon on them — but it needed to stand against efforts to disqualify him.

“When a person is kicked off the ballot for inciting an insurrection or being radical, it can hurt us, very dramatically,” McArdle explained. “When we see someone else potentially get kicked off the ballot for not agreeing with election results, complaining about the federal government, so on and so forth — that looks awfully close to some of the views that we have about the legitimacy of the federal government.” In an interview with podcaster and former Libertarian candidate Austin Petersen, McArdle added that Trump is “a much better person and president than Joe Biden.”

Gary Johnson, the LP’s presidential nominee in 2012 and 2016, told Semafor that he was fine with the Trump convention invite.

“The surprise is that he’s actually coming,” he said. “There’s some solidarity around what he’s facing. I’ve talked to all my accountant friends, and they have the same question: Where does $400 million in damages come from?”

NOTABLE

  • In The New York Times, Compact magazine co-founder Matthew Schmitz argues that Trump’s defiance in the face of investigations and indictments has given him the brand of an “outlaw hero, a figure of defiance with deep roots in American culture who exposes the injustices and hypocrisies of a corrupt system.”
  • Some Trump allies are worried the anti-establishment vote could become a threat to his own chances if it coalesces around RFK Jr. Trump has personally attacked him in recent weeks, calling his campaign a “wasted protest vote,” while others in his orbit work to highlight the longtime Democrat’s more liberal stances.
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State of Play

New York. Democrats easily filled their vacant House seat in Buffalo on Tuesday, where state Sen. Tim Kennedy, running on abortion rights and gun control, beat West Seneca town supervisor Gary Dixon by 37 points. Ignored by national Republicans, Dickson spent just over $21,000; Kennedy spent more than $1 million.

That helped him out-run Biden’s 2020 margin in the seat by 12 points, the latest Democratic over-performance in a special election, six months after Republicans tried and failed to gain ground in the region with campaigns focused on the migrant influx from red states. Kennedy’s victory will bring his party to 213 seats; no special election has been scheduled yet to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne in a safely blue part of New Jersey.

Louisiana. On Tuesday, two Trump-appointed judges blocked a new congressional map that creates a competitive House seat around Baton Rouge while eliminating a safe Republican seat. The new lines, they ruled, amounted to a racial gerrymander; the state faces a May 15 deadline to affirm which maps will be used this year, and the parties in the lawsuit will meet on May 6.

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Ads
NRSC/YouTube

NRSC, “Loans.” The GOP’s Senate and House campaigns have both started running ads that link campus protests to Democrats, splicing together videos of flag-burnings, scuffles, and keffiyeh-wearing activists endorsing violence. (The clips are not always of college students on campus.) The House committee’s ad accuses Democrats of not condemning the protests — many have — while the Senate committee makes a more direct accusation, that by supporting student debt forgiveness Democrats are “using your tax dollars to fund this mayhem.” The ad is up in five swing Midwest states plus Montana; the theory, said NRSC communications director Mike Berg, is that “this is the most toxic issue for Democrats since the 2020 defund the police riots.”

Harry Dunn for Congress, “Choice.” This may be a first in Democratic campaign ads: A defense of gerrymandering, and an attack on a candidate who didn’t do it. Dunn, a former Capitol police officer, goes after state Rep. Sarah Elfreth for supporting a new congressional map that made only small changes to Maryland’s 1st Congressional District. That “helped protect an insurrection-supporting Republican seat,” and it fits into a list of reasons why Elfreth can’t be trusted — along with her support from AIPAC’s super PAC, “funded by Trump donors.”

Hogan for Maryland and NRSC, “Secure the Border.” Maryland’s former governor, who already has the national GOP behind him, still needs to beat some more conservative candidates in the Republican primary. This is the first ad he’s run on a modern GOP base issue, complete with footage of the candidate touring the U.S.-Mexico border — de rigueur in 2024. The blue state twist is that Hogan blames both Democrats and “status quo Republicans” for not “securing” the border yet.

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Polls

It’s been a month since Trump said he wouldn’t sign a federal abortion ban, insisting that this would take the issue away from Democrats and let Republicans focus on the topics that polled best for them. Democrats never let up, and this poll, provided first to Semafor, finds an electorate that isn’t really sure what Trump will do. Sixty percent of Republicans believe Trump’s position, but only 41% of independents do, and only 15% of Democrats. By a 55-27 margin voters say they oppose the sort of far-reaching ban they read about in Arizona, which Democrats and a rump of Republicans voted to repeal this week.

One problem flummoxing Democrats this week was how to pursue the Biden campaign’s main theme — saving democracy — amid images of police departments breaking up campus protests. Young, high-profile activists scoffed at the idea that Biden could threaten them with a Trump presidency. But most Democratic voters are still on board with that message. The number of Americans who say they’re worried about “fascism” is driven mostly by Democrats, 47% of whom say it’s their top concern. Just 15% of Republicans agree with that. Far more are worried about a “lack of values” (36%) and “becoming weak as a nation” (30%) if they lose the election.

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On the Trail
Curtis Means/Pool via REUTERS

White House. Trump will hold a two-day fundraiser in Palm Beach this weekend, where the “special guests” include most of the people being named as potential running mates. The price for entrance starts at $25,000; the stars will include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik.

Noem has already tumbled down the list, thanks to the upcoming release of her memoir. The Guardian, which obtained an early copy of “No Going Back,” first reported on a passage about the governor putting down Cricket, an “untrainable” 14-month old dog who she “hated.” Noem responded to days of horrified mockery by talking to Sean Hannity, insisting that “fake news” had “put the worst spin” on the story.

But it wasn’t the only problem with the book. The South Dakota Scout, which scoured travel records, raised suspicions about two anecdotes in the memoir — that Noem had “met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un” and canceled a meeting with French President Emanuel Macron. Noem’s office told Politico that her publisher would be “addressing conflated world leaders’ names in the book before its release on Tuesday. Trump had his own problems: On Friday, the auditor working with Trump Media was charged with fraud by the FEC, based on an investigation covering the period before BF Borgers handled the Trump account.

House. Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar acknowledged Friday that he’s facing a federal investigation, saying in a statement that both he and his wife were “innocent,” without saying what he might be charged with. NBC News first reported that Cuellar expected to be indicted, two years after FBI raids on his home and campaign office. Cuellar narrowly beat a progressive primary challenger after the race, then easily won re-election in his Laredo-based seat, despite a Democratic vote decline in the Rio Grande Valley and a Republican opponent who raised more than $3.5 million. Two Republicans who’ve raised far less will meet in a runoff this month; Cuellar said that he would continue to seek re-election.

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Q&A
Ian Cain/X

After losing to Sen. Elizabeth Warren twelve years ago, national Republicans stopped competing in Massachusetts. New polling from Suffolk University and the Boston Globe puts Warren 20 points ahead of an unnamed Republican challenger, and most Republicans can’t name the candidates running against her; just 11% said they supported one of the people running right now.

Ian Cain, the president of Quincy’s city council, made the biggest splash. He was the second Republican contender with a footprint in crypto — he runs a blockchain technology incubator — and the first with some experience winning elections, leaving the Democratic Party after 2020. He talked about his race with Americana, and this is an edited transcript of the conversation.

Americana: You’ve said that you left the Democratic Party over radicalism, and over the “defund the police” movement. Where does Warren fit into that?

Ian Cain: It’s generally in her demeanor; any issue that she’s promoting, it’s about sensationalism, or the profile of the target. Whether they’re millionaires and billionaires or if Apple or Tesla and Elon Musk, it’s about her opponents, not actually getting to the grassroots issues that Massachusetts residents care about.

Americana: Do you disagree with her, for example, saying that the SEC should investigate Tesla?

Ian Cain: I’m not taking a position on that. What I’m saying is that her shtick is finding the most high profile company or issue for sensationalism and celebrity, over actually working hard on the ground in Massachusetts to get things done.

Americana: What hasn’t been delivered for Massachusetts, in particular? The Warren campaign’s take is that she’s brought back $50 billion in investments.

Ian Cain: I think it’s very easy to go and take a vote on an omnibus bill. I can similarly say that I have brought billions of dollars to Quincy because of the votes that I’ve taken to support a yearly budget and various capital improvement plans and infrastructure measures and economic diversification measures that I’ve advanced. The more difficult part of the job would be advancing legislation on your own that actually gets passed.

Americana: On your campaign site, you talk about balancing the budget, lowering taxes and creating an environment where the government gets out of the way of economic innovation. How do you bring these resources to the state while cutting taxes and balancing the budget?

Ian Cain: I’m not going to give you a silver bullet today. But I think if we’re talking about advancing economic development, we’re going to be focused on supporting business; we’re going to be focused on supporting growth in emerging and frontier technologies, including machine learning and AI, distributed ledger technology and blockchain cybersecurity. They’re prevented from advancement because of people like Elizabeth Warren. This term “crypto” has developed such a negative connotation when that’s not an accurate depiction of the space.

Americana: You talked with Politico about standing firmly with Israel, backing Israel’s ability to defend itself. What would you do differently than Warren?

Ian Cain: I just never thought I would see a day when Americans would be advocating for pro-terrorist organizations. I stand firmly with Israel, I continue in that position, and I denounce any form of antisemitism like we’ve seen at these colleges.

Americana: Tom Cotton said that the National Guard should be called to break up the camps. Do you agree with that?

Ian Cain: I think I’m uncertain about why there isn’t more disciplinary action. If colleges are going to be shutting down and going back to remote [classes], that is a huge disruption and quite frankly, a waste of money for people who are investing in their education.

Americana: You’ve said you want to protect babies that are viable outside the womb — what does that mean, in terms of a federal limit?

Ian Cain: This issue is firmly back to the states, where I believe that debate will continue to take place.

Americana: So no federal limit.

Ian Cain: This is now a state’s issue. It seems that, currently, D.C. is not as functional as it needs to be to embrace this type of conversation.

Americana; Should the FDA be approving abortion medication? Should it be going through the mail? The status quo is that even people in red states can order it.

Ian Cain: When and if I’m in the place, in the US Senate, to make such a decision, I’m certainly eager to look at the issue in detail.

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Next
  • four days until primaries in Indiana
  • 11 days until primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia
  • 18 days until primaries in Idaho and Oregon
  • 73 days until the Republican National Convention
  • 108 days until the Democratic National Convention
  • 186 days until the 2024 presidential election
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