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The Hot List

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Updated May 5, 2024, 12:53pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
Philippines – Another Marcos
Presidential election in 2028

The older sister of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is showing up in vice presidential polling, and she’s just as ready to burnish her late father’s legacy. In one recent poll, Senator Imee Marcos placed at 19% of the vote compared to frontrunner and fellow Senator Grace Poe at 27%. Like her brother, Imee has been outspoken in her revisionism towards her father’s tenure as dictator of the Philippines during the martial law era. On her Instagram, she’s taken to writing polemic in defense of her father, stating that she will “never allow” detractors to “besmirch [her father’s] name and ruin his legacy.” With current Vice President Sara Duterte at the top of presidential polling — presidents and vice presidents run separately in the Philippines — a dynastic role reversal could be in store for Filipino politics.

ArrowThe Philippines last appeared on the Hot List at #8, looking at concerns over President Marcos's planned constitutional changes.
Emma Roshan
2
Mexico – Campaign violence
Presidential election on June 2, 2024

Security has become one of the defining issues of Mexico’s election season, with a spate of killings targeting candidates for office. Seventeen different politicians have been assassinated while campaigning in this cycle, a number that encompasses figures from every major party. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador himself has attempted to explain the violence, saying drug cartels “make an agreement, and say, ‘this person is going to be mayor,’” before “eliminating” potential threats to their influence. The crisis has factored into criticism towards the incumbent government, as conservative opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez has frequently centered AMLO’s record on security as part of her campaign.

ArrowMexico last appeared on the Hot List at #7, with barbs lobbed during a presidential debate.
3
Brazil – Boulos surge
Local elections on October 6, 2024

A new poll for the Sao Paulo mayoral election gives left-wing candidate Guilherme Boulos a clear chance to win. In a poll from AtlasIntel, not only does Boulos clock in at first place, but left-wing candidates overall amount to a majority. While first round results may not guarantee Boulos a win in the run-off — indeed, the same poll shows the second round in a virtual tie — the situation represents a drastic shift compared to 2020, when Boulos ran 12 points behind in the first round, and fell short by nearly 20 points in the run-off. Boulos, a socialist, was celebrated by left-wing outlets like Jacobin during that campaign.

ArrowBrazil last appeared on the Hot List at #6, looking at Elon Musk's intervention in politics.
Emma Roshan
4
Taiwan – Chiang legacy
Presidential election in 2028

Taiwan is wrestling over the legacy of Chiang Kai-shek, with the incumbent Democratic People’s Party planning to remove statues built in his honor. Taiwan’s modern origins go back to Chiang's flight to the island after his defeat, a move that was followed by wide-scale violent repression known as the White Terror. In the decades that followed, Chiang’s government committed massacres such as the 228 Incident, which is commemorated annually and retains the status of “one of Taiwan’s darkest moments in history.” More than 750 statues have been marked for removal by the DPP government, but remnants of Chiang’s legacy remain in Taiwanese politics, including apologia within his historical party, the Kuomintang. And though his lineage is the subject of controversy, Chiang’s “great-grandson” was elected mayor of the capital Taipei just over a year ago.

ArrowTaiwan last appeared on the Hot List at #1, after a vice presidential candidate's bombastic remarks on cross-strait relations that somehow involved Taylor Swift.
5
North Macedonia – Nationalist candidate
Presidential run-off on May 8, 2024

North Macedonia’s presidential election will feature a familiar run-off matchup, though the results of the first round point towards a clear political shift. Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, who campaigned in the last election against the country’s name change to North Macedonia, placed first by a significant margin, and could be well-positioned to win the run-off. However, while the major opposition coalition only took 20% of the vote to her 40%, Siljanovska-Davkova’s other opponents — including candidates for ethnic Albanian parties — could prove decisive to the final outcome. It may be her election to lose, but those voters could hypothetically mobilize in an attempt to stop an avowed right-wing nationalist.

ArrowThis is North Macedonia's first appearance on the Hot List.
Emma Roshan
6
Spain – Catalan shift
Regional election on May 12, 2024

Pro-independence parties in Catalonia will fight to hang on to their majority in an upcoming snap election. The vote will cap off a recent run of elections for regions in Spain with significant separatist factions, following Galicia and Basque Country votes this year. Catalonia’s Socialist Party, led by former national Health Minister Salvador Illa, places first according to polls, but prospects for government formation would be unclear in the event of a shift away from independentists. Separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, still in exile amid an amnesty deal with Spain’s government, is running for Catalan premier in this election, with a plan to “reignite separatism.”

ArrowSpain last appeared on the Hot List at #3, with an overview of Basque regional election results.
7
USA – Sinking approval
Municipal election in 2025

Support for New York City mayor Eric Adams is sinking, with 73% of voters disapproving of his tenure in a recent survey. With the next mayoral election just a year away, polls like these might actually matter. Some 65% declared they’d back another candidate, although if Adams ends up securing the Democratic nomination, those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt in a city that has trended strongly blue over recent cycles. But that primary could be Adams’ vulnerability, and if potential heavy-hitters decide to run — like last election’s close runner-up, Kathryn Garcia — the mayor’s bizarre rants and corruption scandals might end up scuttling him for good.

ArrowThe USA last appeared on the Hot List at #9, with the shotgun vigilante claims of a North Dakota gubernatorial candidate.
Al Lucca
8
Japan – By-election losses
Legislative elections in 2025

By-election losses for the ruling LDP, including in a seat considered to be one of their strongholds, paints a grim prognostication for the party with a general election looming. Though a snap election may not yet be in the cards, success for the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has added to growing doubts about whether the LDP will be able to hold it together by the time its legislative term ends next year. While betting against the LDP is rarely sound in Japanese politics, the loss of Shimane’s 1st district, previously seen as “safe” LDP territory, represents a major development. Scandals like highly public slush fund revelations are now clearly having a tangible impact on the electoral landscape.

Japan last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with a documentary on "political heckling" in the country.

9
Panama – Better times
Presidential election on May 5, 2024

Panama’s presidential frontrunner Jose Raul Mulino pledged a return to the “better times” of conservative former President Ricardo Martinelli, his corruption-convicted political ally. Mulino, who was running as Martinelli’s vice president, ascended to the top of the ticket after the latter was barred from contesting the election. Though “lacking Martinelli’s charisma and popular appeal,” Mulino has centered nostalgia for the Martinelli era as part of his message on the campaign trail. Mulino faced legal issues of his own, with a campaign that was accused of procedural errors, but Panama’s Supreme Court gave him the go ahead to run in this vote.

ArrowPanama last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with a mayoral campaign that created its own GameBoy game.
Al Lucca
THE BIG READ
Reuters/Umit Bektas

Turkey’s political opposition has shown staying power, even in the midst of devastating defeat. After losing last year’s election despite anticipation of an opening, Turkey’s CHP bounced back with a big win in local elections, even sweeping into Erdogan territory. Writing for Foreign Affairs, Kate Johnston and Gibbs McKinley note that “nearly 90 percent of Turkey’s media is in the hands of the government or its supporters” – a staggering imbalance that makes stark the opposition’s accomplishment. The scale of the victory could have second-order effects: Erdogan plans to potentially change the constitution have been upended by the loss, even if they’re probably not shelved completely.

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