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In today’s edition, we look at how regulators and workers are worried about these moves, and recent ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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April 25, 2024
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Business

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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Soaring interest rates are doing their job pretty well: Today’s GDP data shows the US economy grew far more slowly than expected in the first quarter. They’re also doing a lot of other things, and the big story of the past two years has been the unanticipated effects of central bankers’ war on inflation. They flipped banks’ balance sheets upside down, leading to the failure of several regional lenders last year. They’ve lit a long fuse on commercial real estate and put golden handcuffs on millions of homeowners that are cramping housing supply.

They have been a blessing, though, for the retirement world, which relies on bond yields to generate income decades into the future. Corporate pensions are fully funded now for the first time since 2007. In the weird world of pension accounting, that means that now is the best time to sell them. Today’s story looks at the rise of private equity firms in what’s becoming a brisk trade in the financial future of millions of retirees.

I’m not a catastrophist here, as you’ll see below. But the basic premise of Apollo, KKR, and others that have barreled into this space is that free lunches do in fact exist, and that stodgy suits in Connecticut have been undermanaging insurance portfolios for years.

Plus, a maybe mega mining merger, an AI reality check from Meta, and the banking blast radius of Russia’s war in Ukraine widens.

Buy/Sell
Glenn Campbell/The Age/Fairfax Media via Getty Images

➚ BUY: Land. Some of the world’s most coveted reserves of copper, diamonds, and iron are in play as BHP bids $39 billion for rival Anglo-American, which is separately considering the sale of its De Beers unit. The South African government could be a deal-killer.

➘ SELL: Air. Boeing burned $4 billion in cash on its way to a quarterly loss that sent shares down 2% today. Its problems continue to be its customers’ problems: American Airlines and Southwest both missed earnings forecasts, and American CEO Robert Isom told the jetmaker to “get your act together.”

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The Tape

Inflation, GDP prints are worst of both Meta’s metaverse AI money pit… TikTok CEO: We aren’t going anywhere… McKinsey’s opioid work brings criminal probe… Red Lobster on the menu… Jamie Dimon on the mic… Jefferies CEO sells $65M in stock to buy customer’s yacht…

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Liz Hoffman

Private equity wants your pension

THE NEWS

A brisk new trade in the financial futures of millions of retirees is unnerving some US workers, regulators, and politicians who worry that private equity firms will invest corporate pensions recklessly.

Recent lawsuits challenging AT&T, Lockheed, and Alcoa’s plans to turn their pensions over to Athene, which is owned by Apollo, casts a broader spotlight on private equity’s push into new corners of finance. Sen. Sherrod Brown has held hearings, cheered on by the Teamsters, and the Labor Department is weighing whether to require corporate pensions to at least consider whether an insurance business is owned by private equity before turning over its pensions.

Companies like AT&T and Lockheed don’t want to be in the retirement business. So they’ve been offloading their pension plans to insurance companies. The 773 deals last year broke 2022’s record of 568, according to Aon, which advises corporate pensions.

For years, the business of taking over those pensions was dominated by a handful of century-old insurance mainstays like Prudential and MetLife. But private-equity firms have barrelled in. Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, and Blackstone have all bought insurance companies since 2019, and have been bidding aggressively to acquire pension plans.

Over the past three years, about $135 billion of corporate pension liabilities have moved from America’s biggest companies to insurers. They are converted from corporate promises, vestiges of an era of generous paternalism, into an annuity, a type of insurance contract that has become the hottest product on Wall Street.

In the process, they lose the backing of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., a government entity that guarantees workers’ retirement benefits if their pension plans fail. Instead, any insolvency would be resolved by state insurance funds, which operate similarly to the FDIC’s fund for bank depositors and try to make as many people whole as possible from what’s left.

An Athene spokeswoman called the lawsuits “baseless complaints instigated by class action attorneys who are attempting to enrich themselves at the expense of retirees… Insurers like Athene have deep expertise in managing annuity obligations, are subject to robust regulation, and hold regulatory capital to protect policyholders.”

LIZ’S VIEW

AT&T’s 96,000 retirees are clearly better off with Athene, an A-rated and well-capitalized money manager that reports to financial regulators, than with AT&T, a BBB-rated telecom company that left its pension underfunded for 11 of the past 12 years.

The question is whether they would have been better off with MetLife than with Athene.

Insurers owned by alternative asset managers invest more of policyholders’ money in things like bundled car loans or aircraft financing payments, and less in safer government bonds. They split from traditional players last year in opposing a rule that would increase capital requirements for those riskier and more complex investments.

They also eat a lot of their owners’ cooking: Dig out Athene’s holdings and you’ll see a lot of loans originated by Apollo. The same is true of American National, which is owned by Brookfield, or Corebridge, which is part-owned by Blackstone.

I’m not saying those are bad investments. But the average private equity-backed insurance company’s portfolio yields 0.62% more than that of a traditional firm, according to AM Best, a ratings firm for insurers. They say they can deliver that extra yield without any additional risk, which is, generally speaking, not how finance works.

Those insurers insist they’re no different than traditional players. “It’s not true that we’re ‘private-equity’ backed,” Wheeler, the Athene executive, said in his testimony. “We look a lot like Prudential, or MassMutual, or MetLife.”

He’s right, in that they’re subject to the same capital standards as MetLife or Prudential, and their portfolios need to pass the same safety checks.

But they’re different animals, with different priorities and DNA. KKR and Brookfield are dealmakers. They are good at finding investments like corporate loans and data centers and wind farms that produce profits down the road. For them, owning insurance policies and pension plans, which need profits down the road, is a way to pay for their deals. They are asset managers that play a little liability on the side.

State insurance regulators are pretty good at their jobs; about 30 insurers have failed this century, compared to 566 banks. “The regulators have the same toolbox, and an incredible amount of transparency … to feel confident about these transactions” involving PE-backed insurers, Mariana Gomez-Vock, of the American Council of Life Insurers, told me.

But mismanagement does sometimes get by them, and when it does, everyone wonders how.

A Room for Disagreement on the dubious track record of corporate pensions housed at employers.  →

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Evidence

Being short tech stocks is finally paying off. Last week, wagers against the Magnificent 7 netted $10 billion, according to data firm Ortex. And that was before Meta’s AI reality check — “we’ll grow our investment envelope meaningfully before we make much revenue from some of these new products,” Mark Zuckerberg told disappointed investors yesterday — sent its stock down 12% this morning.

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Quotable

“You go bust in America, you get another chance. In Europe, you’re dead... The Americans just work harder.”

—Norway oil fund chief Nicolai Tangen

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What We’re Tracking
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Hire power: Business groups quickly sued the Federal Trade Commission over its ban of noncompete agreements, which keep workers from joining rival companies. The US Chamber of Commerce called the move, which is wildly popular, an “astonishing power grab” and “government micromanagement” of company affairs. “The FTC’s authority here could not be clearer,” Elizabeth Wilkins, FTC Chair Lina Khan’s former chief of staff, told Semafor.

Disaster planning: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission may ban wagers on elections, pandemics, space launches, and the Grammys. Online betting platforms like Kalshi offer odds on everything from Spotify’s subscriber numbers to how many Oscars Dune will win, and recently increased its trading limit to attract hedge funds. (There appears to be free money betting on a TikTok ban, which the site puts an 8% chance on.) The agency, which already polices contracts on war outcomes, can block any speculation it deems to be “contrary to public interest.”

Caught in the crossfire: The fighting in Ukraine has spawned a proxy financial war that is ensnaring the global banking system. A St. Petersburg court this week ordered $440 million seized from JPMorgan after Russia’s VTB Bank said the US lender had frozen that amount. (JPMorgan has countersued in New York, saying it can’t legally release the money.) That comes as American officials are considering sanctions against Chinese banks for aiding the Russian war effort. And the foreign aid bill that President Joe Biden signed includes new powers to seize Russian assets in the US.

Western governments are split on how aggressively to go after Moscow’s money abroad, which could help fund Ukrainian reconstruction. “It’s very tempting to say we should just grab them,” UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt told Semafor last week at the World Economy Summit in Washington. “But we should remember that the argument we’re trying to win is that the law should count.”

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