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In today’s edition, Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines rules out a run for GOP leader, why Robert ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 31, 2024
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Principals

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Today in D.C.
  1. NRSC chair’s future plans
  2. RFK battle
  3. Trump’s big name allies have plans
  4. House leaders’ election night plans
  5. An endorsement from London
  6. Migration desire
  7. Reality check on AI
  8. Lessons from Brazil

PDB: Trump rides in garbage truck to highlight Biden comment

Harris, Trump both in Nevada … New inflation data out today … North Korea tests ICBM

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Semafor Exclusive
1

Daines takes himself out of leader running

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont.
Official White House Photo/Creative Commons

Steve Daines is taking his wild card off the table. The Montana Republican, who heads the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, officially took his name out of the running for Republican leader in an interview with Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “I’m appreciative of everybody who’s asked me to consider it, but I’m not going to run for majority leader,” he said. So you’re saying there’s a chance? “It’s firm. I’m not going to run,” he said. Some senators had been on the fence as Donald Trump and others encouraged Daines to get in the race, so this could help shake some things loose in the approaching election to succeed Mitch McConnell. There could still be a surprise entrant, but at the moment it’s down to Sens. John Thune, John Cornyn, and Rick Scott. Election date: Nov. 13.

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2

No, RFK Jr. won’t get a Cabinet spot

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
USA Today Network via Reuters Connect

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Donald Trump “has promised” him control of health care agencies, but even a Republican-controlled Senate is unlikely to confirm Kennedy to a Cabinet role, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett report. Congressional aides said Kennedy would run into opposition for roles overseen by the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee because of its more moderate GOP members. Kennedy’s fringe — and unfounded — view that vaccines cause autism, a line that Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick echoed on CNN after meeting with him, wouldn’t help. (Lutnick said Kennedy wouldn’t head the HHS.) Instead, Kennedy’s best shot at a government health role is as a White House adviser or czar, something Trump hasn’t ruled out. Still, a few in Trump’s circle are pushing for a confirmation battle over Kennedy, with one person close to the campaign describing “appetite at the highest levels of the Trump campaign to take on a fight to get Kennedy confirmed.”

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3

Trump’s allies are making politically dicy promises

Elon Musk
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. isn’t the only one writing checks in Trump world they may not be able to cash, Semafor’s Benjy Sarlin writes. Elon Musk is suddenly talking about reducing annual spending by $2 trillion — a figure that would almost certainly require deep cuts to entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare — and warning there will be “temporary hardship” while Trump implements their shared agenda. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson drew new attention to the Affordable Care Act by promising a Pennsylvania voter “massive reform” to the program would be “a big part of the agenda” if Republicans win. Trump has deliberately kept his plans for health care and spending vague, choosing instead to highlight his tax cut ideas, and the Harris campaign jumped on both of their recent remarks to argue he’d let his friends tinker with middle class benefits.

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Semafor Exclusive
4

House leaders’ election night plans

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Top lawmakers don’t often reveal where they’ll be watching election results — especially when the outcome is a toss-up, as it is this year — but we turned up some details. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., we’re told, will be in his district or the District (of Columbia). GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik spent election night in her New York district in 2020, but we expect she’ll join Donald Trump in West Palm Beach this year. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. is throwing a party in Shreveport, La., where he’s slated to speak at 7 p.m. CT. Fellow Louisianian Steve Scalise will be in his home district, too. As for Democrats, Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts will be in D.C., though it’s unclear whether Clark will join Kamala Harris’ reported election night event at her alma mater, Howard University. Other House Democratic leaders are staying hush-hush about their plans.

Kadia Goba

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Semafor Exclusive
5

Economist endorses Harris

The Economist is taking advantage of the space vacated by US news outlets including the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and USA Today, and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election this morning. Reluctant, Economist-reading Trump supporters are “deluding themselves.” Trump “poses an unacceptable risk to America and the world,” the magazine writes. John Prideaux, the British publication’s US editor explained the decision to Semafor’s Max Tani: “We don’t think being independent and being opinionated are in conflict with each other. Reporters have strong views on the subjects they cover because they’re experts. It’s odd to pretend they don’t.”

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6

In US and beyond, a growing desire to migrate

A record-high percentage of people in the US — 21% — want to leave the country, even as people from elsewhere are fighting to get in, according to new polling from Gallup. That’s up from 17% last year and in line with a historically high desire to migrate worldwide, according to Gallup, which polled 146,000 adults across 142 countries last year on the subject (Gallup’s 2024 polling on this question is only partially complete). In 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa was the region most people wanted to move from (37%). Where do Americans want to go? Eleven percent who said they wanted to move this year chose Canada, while 8% each named the UK and Japan, and 6% picked Italy, according to Gallup.

Morgan Chalfant

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7

What to expect on AI next year

In the two weeks before the US election on Nov. 5, our Reality Check series explains the clear Washington policy implications — which are often a long way from campaign rhetoric.

Lawmakers have struggled to agree on comprehensive regulation for artificial intelligence, and that’s likely to continue no matter who occupies the White House next year. Absent a major bipartisan breakthrough, the executive branch will continue to take the lead on policy. Donald Trump has vowed to undo President Biden’s executive order on AI, a sign that his White House would mean fewer rules for the fast-moving technology. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has pushed for controls to ensure AI doesn’t violate individuals’ rights. Tech policy has united the parties in some ways, however. Both Trump and Biden pushed for the repeal of the tech liability shield Section 230, while bipartisan lawmakers have tried to roll back those rules in the name of online safety for children. One huge question hovering over Trump: will he try to shield TikTok from a forced sale or ban?

Morgan Chalfant

Read Reed Albergotti’s interview with OpenAI’s political ‘guru’ Chris Lehane. →

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8

Political violence in Brazil carries warning for US

Adriano Machado/File Photo/Reuters

Brazil’s tumultuous recent past shows how political violence can upend a country’s electoral process, as the US braces for its own potential unrest. A week after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was inaugurated for his latest term in 2023, followers of his rightist predecessor Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Supreme Court, Congress, and presidential palace protesting the election results, calling on the army to overthrow Lula. After pacifying the capital, authorities in Brasília deployed the “Democracy Unshaken” plan to bring to justice those responsible for the coup attempt, leading to more than 2,000 arrests and a ban on Bolsonaro running for office for eight years. The sentences struck a chord with voters: Local elections last Sunday showed that support for center-right candidates remained strong, but voters shunned candidates endorsed by Bolsonaro.

— Jeronimo Gonzalez

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PDB

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., is in a good position to retain his seat despite expectations he would be one of the most vulnerable House Republicans this election cycle.

Playbook: A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows Kamala Harris up in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire, while Donald Trump has the edge in North Carolina.

WaPo: The Republican-led House Judiciary Committee is accusing Google and YouTube of censoring Joe Rogan’s recent interview with Trump.

Axios: Billionaires are spending hundreds of millions of dollars more this election cycle than they did in the 2020 election to support presidential and congressional candidates.

White House

  • The White House sought to minimize the fallout from President Biden’s “garbage” comments, while prominent Democrats, including Vice President Harris, distanced themselves from the remark. “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,” Harris told reporters. A spokesperson for Sen. Jon Tester, facing a tough reelection battle in Montana, said the senator “doesn’t agree with those comments and is proud to have the support of Montanans of all political stripes.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump rode around in a Trump-branded garbage truck before a rally in Wisconsin, in an effort to keep attention on the comments.
Donald Trump sits inside a garbage truck labeled with “Make America Great Again” in Wisconsin
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Congress

  • House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner said he doesn’t believe the next US president “will or should” do away with strategic ambiguity on Taiwan.

Outside the Beltway

  • The first National Semiconductor Technology Center, funded by the bipartisan chips law, will be located in Albany, the Commerce Department announced today.

Economy

  • US GDP grew 2.8% in the third quarter, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week during which the central bank is expected to lower interest rates again.
  • US companies that rely on foreign suppliers are already planning price increases for customers next year if Donald Trump wins the election and implements his proposed expansion of tariffs. — WaPo

Business

  • Chinese electric car maker BYD beat Tesla in quarterly revenues for the first time.

Courts

  • The Supreme Court ruled that Virginia can purge suspected noncitizens from its voter rolls, a win for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
  • A Pennsylvania judge extended the deadline for voters in Bucks County to request a mail-in ballot until Friday after the Trump campaign and other Republican groups claimed in a lawsuit that some voters seeking ballots were rejected illegally.

Polls

  • Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are virtually tied in Pennsylvania, a Monmouth University poll showed. A CNN survey found a similar result, while showing Harris with a slight edge over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin.

On the Trail

  • Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed Kamala Harris, while astronaut Buzz Aldrin endorsed Donald Trump. Latin superstar Nicky Jam, meanwhile, rescinded his endorsement of Trump over comments made about Puerto Rico at his New York rally by a comedian.

National Security

Foreign Policy

  • Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants Israel to end its war in Gaza by the time he takes office if he wins the US presidential election next week. — Times of Israel

Technology

  • The EU is launching a probe of Temu to determine whether the company is violating rules meant to curb the sale of illicit products. — Bloomberg

Media

  • Jonathan Lemire will be a co-host on “Morning Joe.”

Big Read

  • US Archivist Colleen Shogan, an appointee of President Biden, is under fire for trying to deemphasize more negative and politically divisive aspects of US history at the National Archives Museum in the nation’s capital, The Wall Street Journal reported. Her efforts — which included cutting treaties showing Native American tribes ceding their land to the US government from a planned exhibit about Westward expansion — led to some resignations and a federal whistleblower complaint that was turned down.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Ford’s electric vehicle division reported a $1.2 billion loss in the third quarter.

What the Right isn’t reading: The US offshore wind industry says “misinformation” from opponents is a significant headwind.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-R

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One Good Text

Vinay Kwatra is India’s ambassador to the US.

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